I'll predict it now: the Brexit will never ACTUALLY take place

[bluestateguy]

I think Cameron strategically resigned, effective in October, to slow the process down to a halt. That's what I think will happen. A lot of paper has to be pushed before the separation can take place, and I don't think it will materialize.

Cameron, not wanting to be associated with this big bag of shit, has said that he will leave the the Article 50 invocation to his successor. That's several more months for the Pound to take a beating and the FTSE and other markets to slump.

The Leave side is disorganized and not even unified among themselves on means and ends.

Public opinion is already showing signs of buyers remorse. And as small investors see their retirement savings go up in smoke that too will weaken the Leave momentum.

Parliament, including big majorities of Labor and Conservative MP's are opposed to leaving and they must approve an Article 50 invocation.

Never mind holding a new referendum. The new PM (no guarantee it will be Boris Badenov) will likely just delay the invocation with pre-invocation investigative commissions, studies, meetings, summits, negotiations, etc. until such time as the Leave momentum peters out and he/she can just quietly abandon the whole thing (probably on a Friday afternoon news dump).

[jberryhill]

1. I tend to agree

This is the dog that caught the car.

[randome]

11. Perfect.

[HassleCat]

2. Not going well for Brexit.

Scotland and Ireland are making noises about what they might do if Brexit succeeds. There's even talk of them joining EU as if they were independent nations.

[LeftishBrit]

3. I hope you are right

It's all a complete and utter mess.

[Svafa]

4. I've been suspecting this as well.

[TubbersUK]

5. Aspects of this sometimes smack of a bad joke

or petty infighting among some of the most execrable specimens of the Eton/Oxbridge elite.

Michael Gove’s wife says Brexit result ‘terrifying’[/

Michael Gove’s wife has described the EU referendum result as “terrifying”, in another indication that Leave campaigners may not have expected to win Thursday’s vote on EU membership.
Writing in the Daily Mail, Sarah Vine said she wrongly thought that polling day “would bring an end to months of uncertainty and anxiety.”
Her account is the latest example of Mr Gove and Boris Johnson making their views known through newspaper columns, rather than press conferences or speeches.

Cameron, Eton and Oxford. Boris, Eton and Oxford. Gove, Oxford & Boris's shirt pocket.

Mr Gove is supporting Mr Johnson’s campaign to become Conservative party leader after David Cameron announced his resignation on Friday.
The two men met as students at Oxford university, where Mr Gove supported Mr Johnson’s campaign to become president of the Oxford Union 30 years ago.
“I was Boris’s stooge. I became a votary of the Boris cult,” the justice secretary wrote in 2005. Mr Johnson was elected Union president, after he renounced his Conservative ties and posed as a supporter of the Social Democrats, the university’s largest political grouping.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3fe28108-3dd9-11e6-8716-a4a71e8140b0.html#axzz4CzoPdUVg

[yeoman6987]

6. I think it's going forward. Even the market is back to pre vote numbers.

[Nye Bevan]

7. But just look at the delighted enthusiasm on the faces of Johnson and Gove

the morning after the vote:



Obviously eager to invoke Article 50 and go down in history as destroying the UK.

[LanternWaste]

8. I think you're correct. Britain got really drunk one night last week

I think you're correct. Britain got really drunk one night last week and is only now beginning to piece together those foggy moments before finally coming to a collective "oh crap, what have I done? I better fix this before the folks get home" moment.

[drray23]

9. I am not so sure

The european union told the uk to hurry up the process. The EU president jean claude junker was particularly insistent about it. Farage insulting the EU parlamentarians at the last session did not help either.

[closeupready]

10. Nah, it'll happen. They never much have liked Europe as a concept, and

never liked the idea of joining it. They want out.

[pampango]

12. Yeah. The U.K. never joined Schengen and had always been the most half-hearted member

of the EU.

The other EU countries may be able to make a better EU without the most faint-hearted member, if they can neutralize the far-right, anti-EU elements in those countries.

OTOH, if the far-right in France and other countries gets their way, the EU may well be history.

[closeupready]

13. Politics operates in an interesting way in France and Germany.

For reasons pertaining to their histories. I suppose that dynamic applies everywhere, but voters in both countries have flirted with the far right before, to no avail (post-WWII).

What I can't figure out is this - do current events (populism, rejection of neoliberalism, nationalism) represent just another momentary fad (as before), or is this the beginning of a fundamental change in how citizens want government policy to serve their needs? And why is it happening now?

Certainly, it appears even the experts have been caught with their pants down (and not just there, but here too, with Trump and Sanders doing FAR better than anyone ever dreamed they would).

[pampango]

14. That, as they used to say, is the $64,000 question.

When you're in the middle of a trend it seems like it will go on forever. Historically, sometimes things like "populism, rejection of neoliberalism, nationalism" have gone on for decades. Other times they have come and gone more quickly.

The cycle of nationalism - internationalism - nationalism will continue. A change to prioritizing international cooperation over national sovereignty will come again. Who knows whether it will be this November or next yea or in 10 or 20 years. Things run in cycles. I hope the end of the Trump/Brexit will come to an end soon.