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Fri Jul 8, 2016, 01:48 AM

 

Trump polling historically poorly in California. Trailing Clinton by 30 pts

http://www.mercurynews.com/portlet/article/html/imageDisplay.jsp?contentItemRelationshipId=7639836

Trump, who at least temporarily has shuttered his California campaign offices, trails Clinton by 30 points in a two-person race and by 24 points when Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson is thrown into the mix.

Moreover, Trump is faring "historically" poorly with independent voters, Democrats and Latinos, Field Poll Director Mark DiCamillo said.

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"If Clinton had been indicted, things might be different, but as it stands now, Trump has virtually no chance in this state," said Jack Pitney, a professor of politics at Claremont McKenna College.

And if his polling doesn't pick up, Trump could make it challenging for several GOP congressmen in California to keep their seats, said Bill Whalen, a former Republican operative, who is now a research fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution.


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But it's hard to fathom Trump prevailing when the poll shows him trailing Clinton among California Latinos 75 percent to 12 percent in a two-person race. With Johnson included, Trump's share of the Latino vote sank to just 9 percent.

That's a long slide from the days of Ronald Reagan, who won 40 percent of Latinos in 1980.

"When you are getting single-digit support from a constituency that is 25 percent of registered voters and increasing, that is almost insurmountable," DiCamillo said.



http://www.mercurynews.com/elections/ci_30100943/california-poll-donald-trump-hitting-historic-lows-presidential

7 replies, 866 views

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Reply Trump polling historically poorly in California. Trailing Clinton by 30 pts (Original post)
Liberal_in_LA Jul 2016 OP
bluestateguy Jul 2016 #1
riversedge Jul 2016 #5
SheilaT Jul 2016 #2
Liberal_in_LA Jul 2016 #3
SheilaT Jul 2016 #4
CobaltBlue Jul 2016 #7
CobaltBlue Jul 2016 #6

Response to Liberal_in_LA (Original post)

Fri Jul 8, 2016, 01:50 AM

1. But he wants to campaign and spend money in that state

Every day and every dollar spent in California is a day and dollar not spent in Ohio.

So please, be my guest. Welcome to California, Donald.

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Response to bluestateguy (Reply #1)

Fri Jul 8, 2016, 01:58 AM

5. yeah donny--go west, spend your time and $$.

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Response to Liberal_in_LA (Original post)

Fri Jul 8, 2016, 01:55 AM

2. Completely aside from the merits of a hypothetical Republican

 

versus a hypothetical Democrat, wouldn't the hypothetical Democrat totally slaughter the hypothetical Republican?

And that's completely aside from the realities of this year's race.

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Response to SheilaT (Reply #2)

Fri Jul 8, 2016, 01:56 AM

3. Yes. Repubs are nolonger competitive in calif

 

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Response to Liberal_in_LA (Reply #3)

Fri Jul 8, 2016, 01:58 AM

4. No real surprise there.

 

Sad to say.

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Response to Liberal_in_LA (Reply #3)

Fri Jul 8, 2016, 03:19 AM

7. Liberal_in_LA—Which is devastating to the Rs…

 

Dating back to its first presidential vote, in 1852, California has carried for winners approximately 85 percent.

The historical average of carried states—with the previous 57 presidential elections of 1789–2012—is about 70 percent.

California is well above historical average for reliably backing winners.

On the flip side, Texas—which first voted in 1848—is at about 60 percent.

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Response to Liberal_in_LA (Original post)

Fri Jul 8, 2016, 03:11 AM

6. 2012 California: Obama +23; indicated shift is D+7

 

• Barack Obama won the state 60.16% to Mitt Romney at 37.07% (D+23.09)

The poll indicates a further Democratic shift of +7 (for Hillary Clinton). That would yield an estimate of Hillary Clinton at 64% to Donald Trump at 34%.

In California, lately, about every 130,000 in raw-vote margin is an increment of a full percentage point for carrying the state. This poll would indicate a further 2016 shift of about 910,000 raw votes. So, instead of Obama’s 3 million plus in raw-vote margin winning California … Hillary would carry it by over 4 million raw votes.

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