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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsTrump polling historically poorly in California. Trailing Clinton by 30 pts
http://www.mercurynews.com/portlet/article/html/imageDisplay.jsp?contentItemRelationshipId=7639836Trump, who at least temporarily has shuttered his California campaign offices, trails Clinton by 30 points in a two-person race and by 24 points when Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson is thrown into the mix.
Moreover, Trump is faring "historically" poorly with independent voters, Democrats and Latinos, Field Poll Director Mark DiCamillo said.
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"If Clinton had been indicted, things might be different, but as it stands now, Trump has virtually no chance in this state," said Jack Pitney, a professor of politics at Claremont McKenna College.
And if his polling doesn't pick up, Trump could make it challenging for several GOP congressmen in California to keep their seats, said Bill Whalen, a former Republican operative, who is now a research fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution.
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But it's hard to fathom Trump prevailing when the poll shows him trailing Clinton among California Latinos 75 percent to 12 percent in a two-person race. With Johnson included, Trump's share of the Latino vote sank to just 9 percent.
That's a long slide from the days of Ronald Reagan, who won 40 percent of Latinos in 1980.
"When you are getting single-digit support from a constituency that is 25 percent of registered voters and increasing, that is almost insurmountable," DiCamillo said.
http://www.mercurynews.com/elections/ci_30100943/california-poll-donald-trump-hitting-historic-lows-presidential
bluestateguy
(44,173 posts)Every day and every dollar spent in California is a day and dollar not spent in Ohio.
So please, be my guest. Welcome to California, Donald.
riversedge
(70,189 posts)SheilaT
(23,156 posts)versus a hypothetical Democrat, wouldn't the hypothetical Democrat totally slaughter the hypothetical Republican?
And that's completely aside from the realities of this year's race.
Liberal_in_LA
(44,397 posts)SheilaT
(23,156 posts)Sad to say.
CobaltBlue
(1,122 posts)Dating back to its first presidential vote, in 1852, California has carried for winners approximately 85 percent.
The historical average of carried stateswith the previous 57 presidential elections of 17892012is about 70 percent.
California is well above historical average for reliably backing winners.
On the flip side, Texaswhich first voted in 1848is at about 60 percent.
CobaltBlue
(1,122 posts) Barack Obama won the state 60.16% to Mitt Romney at 37.07% (D+23.09)
The poll indicates a further Democratic shift of +7 (for Hillary Clinton). That would yield an estimate of Hillary Clinton at 64% to Donald Trump at 34%.
In California, lately, about every 130,000 in raw-vote margin is an increment of a full percentage point for carrying the state. This poll would indicate a further 2016 shift of about 910,000 raw votes. So, instead of Obamas 3 million plus in raw-vote margin winning California
Hillary would carry it by over 4 million raw votes.