Florida is now in the cone for Hurricane Matthew

[RockaFowler]

[jpak]

1. So is New England :(

[virgogal]

3. Still too far away.

[jpak]

7. The ensembles have been pretty consistent

Last edited Mon Oct 3, 2016, 06:17 PM - Edit history (1)

and have a strengthening ~960 mb storm off New England next weekend.

[Warpy]

5. None of those models has it grazing the Outer Banks

and then going out to sea.

Damn.

[unc70]

9. Some do, but most don't

Too many of the models now have it going west of Cape Hatteras. Too early to tell much, but could do the classic route over Topsail NC and Pamlico Sound. The Sandy scenario is unlikely, but one of the worst options.

Unfortunately it is moving slowly with plenty of time to really strengthen after Cuban mountains. Gulf Stream is really warm. The Carolinas and Virginia have already been flooded. Not good.

[mnhtnbb]

12. This model has it making landfall on the Outer Banks on Saturday.

Found it on weatherunderground.com

[unc70]

15. That is certainly plausible

Wunderground is a good site. I post there some, also as unc70 on Master's blog. Not posted yet this season. I grew up near Swansboro on the south coast of NC. Have been through many of the majors over the last 65+ years.

I am pretty good with my own models and forecasts. I've posted a bit on the limits of forecasts when the weather station data is bogus because the unmanned stations were damaged and offline for hours before landfall in NC. This was a big problem with Sandy and it is today.

Reported official landfall is also an issue. Landfall will often be further south along the NC coast, but is not "official" until it hits the Cape Lookout buoy or somewhere across the Pamlico Sound.

No forecast will be very accurate until it crosses the Cuban mountains. Then I will start worrying. A quick glance at your model map doesn't show enough high pressure over land to keep the storm offshore, particularly given how symmetric the storm and given the lack of dry air advection.

[monmouth4]

6. I am right on the edge in West Palm. Get supplies!!!! Bread/milk..n/t

[geomon666]

2. Well...fuck.

Time to go buy some supplies.

[lpbk2713]

4. F me. I was hoping it would go the other way.

I'm just below the L in FL.

[DrDan]

11. Orlando area? Port Orange here - we could get hurricane-force winds

[lpbk2713]

16. The latest projection moved it a little east.

That's a bit of a relief. I'm sure I'll still get significant wind and rain though.

I'm in Lakeland.

Link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/145747.shtml?5-daynl#contents

[DrDan]

17. our saving grace is the Rick on keeping an eye on us

keeping us safe

[Renew Deal]

22. Right now it doesn't look like you will get the worst of it

But Matthew has a mind of its own and keeps moving around. It was supposed to pass over Jamaica, then Haiti and Cuba. It went over Haiti and threaded the needle between Haiti and Cuba.

[longship]

8. I'm in MI, but I am going to R&K this for FL DUers. nt

[malaise]

10. In the cone?

Rick Scott has already declared a state of emergency for all counties

[msongs]

13. and that's just because of his governance. the hurricane is extra nt

[malaise]

14. Bwaaaaaaaaaaaah

You made me laugh

[Renew Deal]

23. Hey. How did you do?

[Baitball Blogger]

18. I will be able to see Hurricane Matthew from my back door.

[Joe941]

19. After the hurricane goes through...

clinton will come in and make her case how she will help Florida rebuild if elected president and Florida will go blue! This will be good.

[cpwm17]

20. Local news in Orlando said this looks like it will be the closest big storm

in the area's history. I live near the east coast so I think I'm taking a drive west tomorrow.

[Renew Deal]

21. The storm eye is threading the needle between Haiti and Cuba

And staying over the water