are all the polls bullshit?

[spanone]

this is crazy...

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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

[Laffy Kat]

1. The numbers are certainly all over the place! nt

[Cattledog]

2. Go here and sleep well tonight.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/

[spanone]

7. i visit there often for reassurance....

it just doesn't make much sense....the disparity.

[Loki Liesmith]

3. Average them

[OhZone]

4. I like the other view better -

BTW, Rasmussen always skews right, and the LA Times Poll is experimental and seems to bounce around.

[spanone]

10. no kidding!

thanks

[still_one]

5. The only poll that has been consistent throughout is the LATimes/USC poll

............


I might add, consistently WRONG

[spanone]

11. yea, i don't get that one at all.

[still_one]

12. Their sampling methodology is flawed, and instead of trying to adjust it, they continue as an

outlier

[standingtall]

17. The reason it's always wrong

is because it is a tracking poll. They have a fixed sample of voters that they check in with throughout the election cycle. The sample is never adjusted. So if it was a bad sample to begin with it's going to be wrong.

[Zynx]

6. Discounting Rasmussen and USC, those results all make sense.

[4lbs]

8. What's wrong? The first 3 are General Election, and the rest are state polls.

So, Hillary has a 36 point lead in Maryland and Trump has an 11 point lead in Tennessee.

And it's very close in Florida, Nevada, and Arizona.

Sounds about right.

[fierywoman]

9. PEC

My darlings, go to Princeton Election Consortium and sleep well at night. Check out the guy's past record -- he's ALWAYS on the money. He's wicked smart and a leftie!

[Stallion]

13. Rasmussen Missed in 2012 by 4.9%, LA Times Has No Prior History and RCP has a Thumb on the Scale

it is a Conservative website that conveniently leaves out quality polls that Republicans don't like but add questionable low rated Republican leaning polls. Go to Pollster.com or the Princeton Election site or 538.com which were much closer in 2012

Pollster has Clinton's lead up to about 6.6% last time I looked. 538.com had it at about 6.0%. In comparison RCP with its thumb on the scale has it at 4.1%. I don't know why anybody places much confidence in RCP when they elected President Romney on Election Eve in 2012

[Trust Buster]

14. The polls are b.s. Here is all the matters;

TRUMP IS DOING WORSE THAN ROMNEY WITH THE AA, LATINO, FEMALE AND COLLEGE EDUCATED DEMOGRAPHICS. And, you know what happened to Romney.

[MFM008]

15. Only 2

538
Princeton.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

16. You can't just look at the column in the far right.

You need to notice that some of the polls are state specific. Some are the general election overall, and of those, some include Johnson and Stein, some don't. Each one is measuring something different.