General Discussion

TomCADem

(17,382 posts) Wed Oct 12, 2016, 12:54 AM Oct 2016

538: Paul Ryan Needs Trump More Than Trump Needs Ryan

Nate's point is that Trump is far closer to the GOP base, than Ryan, thus Ryan needs Trump more than Trump needs Ryan. Of course, if this is true, then Trumpism does not necessarily end if Trump loses. Indeed, going into 2018, Trump could make the pitch that he would have won if the GOP went all-in on his sexist, racist, anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim agenda.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/paul-ryan-needs-trump-more-than-trump-needs-ryan/

House Speaker Paul Ryan is not a big fan of Donald Trump — that much is clear. He refused to back Trump during the Republican primaries and then held out on endorsing him even after Trump became the presumptive nominee. But eventually, Ryan did get behind Trump. And now, even after video of Trump bragging about being able to commit sexual assault has come to light, Ryan said he won’t defend Trump, but he has refused to unendorse the GOP nominee. Trump responded by attacking Ryan on Twitter.

A reasonable person might ask why, if Ryan was reluctant to support Trump to begin with, the speaker of the House isn’t washing his hands of the whole Trump campaign.

But the answer is simple: Republican voters like Trump; Ryan risks losing the support of rank-and-file GOPers if he hits Trump too hard.

Trump is more popular among Republicans right now than Ryan is. In the most recent YouGov poll, for example, Trump’s net favorability rating (the percentage of respondents who rate him favorably minus the share who have an unfavorable opinion) among Republican primary voters was +36 percentage points. Ryan’s was just +16 points. Perhaps more telling is that Trump’s “very favorable” rating among this group is 34 percent, while Ryan’s is only 13 percent.