General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forumsfivethirtyeight with a reminder to Democrats about 2018
Please remember, everyone, that the presidency is only one part of this. It's vital, of course, to prevent Trump from taking the White House, and making sure that the extremely qualified and competent Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton, wins the presidential election. But as Dan Hopkins over on fivethirtyeight.com notes:
Since the 1930s, one of the most dependable regularities in American politics has been midterm loss, a swing against the party of the incumbent president. Whether due to a reaction to the sitting presidents agenda or to voters seeking a counterweight to the president, the party not holding the presidency has made gains in the House in the midterm elections in every election but two since 1934.
If history is any guide, the House GOPs majority would face more risk from a President Donald Trump in 2018 than from Trumps campaign in 2016.
Or imagine that Clinton prevails in November. If so, the most likely outcome is a continuation of the recent pattern of resounding GOP victories in midterm years. In 2018, Democrats will defend Senate seats they won in 2012 in several red states, including Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia. West Virginias Joe Manchin famously shot a copy of the cap and trade bill in a 2010 campaign advertisement but even excellent marksmanship might not be enough in a third consecutive midterm wave for the GOP.
In addition, some of the most important aftershocks of the 2016 election are likely to be felt not in Washington but in state capitals across the country. In 2018, 36 states will choose governors. As Ive pointed out before, our elections for governor increasingly track national trends. Governors are typically powerful officials in their own right, with substantial control over state budgets and policy. But even for those who care about power only at the federal level, there is good reason to care about the 2018 governors races: In many states with multiple House districts, those governors will have veto power over their states redistricting processes after the 2020 census. Over the course of the Obama presidency, anti-Obama voting in non-presidential years is a major reason why the Democrats have lost a net of 11 governors seats.
full article here: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-party-that-loses-this-year-could-still-win-a-big-consolation-prize/?ex_cid=2016-forecast
So, this is a great reminder that the energy in this election directed against Trump needs to be kept up for another two years for mid-term elections. GOTV can't be for just the presidential election. Why don't we give Hillary a full set of tools to work with, instead of letting those obstructionist tools in the GOP hinder her as they've done so frequently to Obama.
It's time to embarrass the GOP into irrelevance.
Also, as a side note, at the time of posting this thread, fivethirtyeight's polls-only projection has Clinton's chance of winning the election at 86.1%, including winning Ohio, Iowa, Florida, and Arizona. Woot woot! The now-cast has her topping 90%!
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)only need to look at how Congress hamstrung President Obama for six of the eight years he's been president. Jobs bills, raising taxes on the uber-wealthy, public option in our health care reform bill, immigration bills, justice and judges appointments - Republicans in Congress have prevented this country from moving forward. And then they have the advantage of blaming everything on the president.
Saviolo
(3,278 posts)That all of those angry man-babies full of Trump's rage virus are going to hit the polls to punish Hillary for every perceived slight that takes place between her inauguration and the mid-terms.
Those voters aren't going away, and they'll be madder than ever that they lost. They're going to want to try to strike a blow. It can't be said enough GOTV GOTV GOTV GOTV GOTV.
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)from the moment Hillary becomes #45 and onward.
We only lose when we don't GOTV during midterms. We need to help our Democratic President by giving her a Congress she can work with, and we need to redraw districts in 2020 when the census is taken again. This can't be done if Republicans control Governor's mansions and State Legislatures!
In 2010, only two States didn't allow a Republican blowout that took the House away from us for ten-plus years - and one of them is our State, California. Since Democrats took back control from an inept Republican governor, we've turned our $42 billion deficit to a surplus in just three years and now stand at $11+ billion surplus and we've beaten two other populous States (Florida and Texas) in job growth despite "higher taxes" here.
California should be held as the example this country has to follow, and why Republican leadership and policy are failing wherever they're in control.
Saviolo
(3,278 posts)Well... "funny" I guess.
Just yesterday I read someone's post elsewhere referring to being glad they finally moved away from "socialist Cuckfornia" and so happy to be living in Montana now.
Levels of cognitive dissonance and confirmation bias are extremely high with that one!
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)The more Republican idiots leave this State, the better it is to keep it progressive and in the black!
In fact, if the polls are correct, we just might give Darrell "got $250M-net-worth rich off of gov't largess" Issa the boot this election! Couldn't happen to a more deserving a**wipe and money-leach.
Jim Beard
(2,535 posts)Saviolo
(3,278 posts)And I immediately discount the opinion of anyone who tosses around the words "cuck" and "socialist" as if they had any idea what they mean. Alt-right pejoratives that are less than meaningless.
Also, using Socialist as an insult is juvenile.
Wounded Bear
(58,584 posts)It was devastating for Obama. So much could have been done without the Repub majorities blocking every reasonable policy proposal.
dembotoz
(16,784 posts)the gop is perhaps wounded but they are still way stronger than dems are in my area
they will recover
Saviolo
(3,278 posts)Then it will be a ringing denouncement of the direction the GOP has moved in, and it may take them longer to recover, which would be a boon. Certainly there are areas that will never vote Democratic; partially out of inertia and partially out of demographics, but by all means, let's kick the GOP while they're down right now. Let's make that recovery as slow as it can possibly be, and maybe send some of their fascist regressive policies to the dustbin of history.
former9thward
(31,923 posts)At least a third of the people who vote in Presidential elections skip the midterms. Look at the numbers. The D vote falls more than the R vote in the midterms. Shouting "GOTV" on blogs will not change that.
+
Saviolo
(3,278 posts)Will help keep it front of mind in two years when it's important to not just say GOTV, but do it. Got to convince the people whose habits are not to vote in midterms to break that habit.