General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsFolks, I am nervous about the election.
I keep hearing about how far ahead Hillary is in the polls and when I look at them, they look close.
Here is the link to Real Clear Politics where pols can be averaged or listed as is. Look at them and share what you think. As for me, I am very concerned.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/
Real Clear Politics
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,280 posts)teach1st
(5,928 posts)IBD/TIPP Tracking
Care to comment about the others?
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/
longship
(40,416 posts)Buckeye Barney
(4 posts)While the numbers look close, you need to remember that this election only needs to have the correct states fall in line. Winning the delegate count is the biggest obstacle. I can't see a way where Hillary doesn't win the delegate count. I do see where there is a possibility where she could not win the national count.
I'm not nervous at all about this election.
niyad
(112,435 posts)GoneOffShore
(17,309 posts)People are mobilized against Cheeto Sporkhands.
smirkymonkey
(63,221 posts)LOL!!
Haven't heard that one yet, but I'm using it!
GoneOffShore
(17,309 posts)4lbs
(6,756 posts)2012:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html
Towards the end, Obama was ahead by 0.7 points, and won by 3.9 points, getting 332 EV
2008:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
Towards the end, Obama was ahead by 7 points and won by 7 points, getting 365 EV
2004:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2004/president/us/general_election_bush_vs_kerry-939.html
About two weeks before the election, Bush was ahead of Kerry by 1.5 points and won by 2.5 points, getting 286 EV
So, now
2016:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
Hillary Clinton is ahead by 5.6 points on average as of today, just over two weeks away.
This is shaping up to be similar to 2008 for us at the very least.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,211 posts)saltpoint
(50,986 posts)2012 percentages in key states.
And Romney lost.
Also add some points to the blue column for our vastly superior ground game.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)feelings have zero bearing on the outcome of this election.
Get out there and work for it. Nervousness won't matter.
redwitch
(14,933 posts)TonyPDX
(962 posts)Tarheel_Dem
(31,211 posts)Doodley
(8,976 posts)The closest state on the easiest path for her to win is Pennsylvania and she's around 7 points ahead there.
It's weird how tonight there's a bunch of worry warts on both this site and Daily Kos. For absolutely no reason.
The polling numbers are absolutely phenomenal. 12 months ago we could not have dreamed of numbers this good.
TonyPDX
(962 posts)Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)I mean, they don't know what to do with themselves, at this point.
Do they.
Liberal_in_LA
(44,397 posts)MFM008
(19,782 posts)Maggot isn't going anywhere. Even Karl Rove said he's toast.
LisaL
(44,962 posts)Jim Beard
(2,535 posts)people believing they were going to win. Rove never gave up and Meghan Kelly had to go back to his room during the news cast to confront him after all the other news outlets had called it for Obama. I could say I am concerned. I will be voting. In about 9 hours I will be voting for Hillary, it is the first day of early voting in Texas.
Cracklin Charlie
(12,904 posts)WTH?
Sometimes it is so hard to live in Missouri.
Let us vote!
MFM008
(19,782 posts)When he sees one.
Peaches999
(118 posts)We have +12 Clinton to +1 Trump as the range. So most likely Clinton will win, but it is not guaranteed it will be a blowout or even better than Obama. I wouldn't be nervous, but rather just work hard these next two weeks!!!
True_Blue
(3,063 posts)Last edited Mon Oct 24, 2016, 11:28 AM - Edit history (1)
In fact, I think it might end up being the worst defeat in American history.
davidn3600
(6,342 posts)She may or may not win 48 states like Saint Ronny.
But one thing is for sure, repukes and MRA types are gonna be crying and solidly rebuked in all 50 states when she wins this thing in an epic landslide.
It's a new era.
davidn3600
(6,342 posts)If you say so...
I see much of the same for next 4 years. A lot of obstructionism. Not much getting done. Same old politics.
People said it was going to be a "new era" of politics when Obama was elected and Democrats took over Congress in a wave. How much has changed?
So I have a bit more pessimistic view. I will believe the "new era" when I see it.
JTFrog
(14,274 posts)davidn3600
(6,342 posts)You made it to my ignore list.
Have a nice day.
JTFrog
(14,274 posts)duffyduff
(3,251 posts)Trump should not win a single state. I predict a 1964 or 1936 blowout in the EC.
I think people around here tend to overestimate the voting population's attitude about Trump. Millions upon millions of Republican women will cross over to vote for Clinton.
The race has never been in doubt, and that is because of the historic nature of the race. It wasn't ever in doubt as far back as 2008, after Obama was elected, that Clinton would be elected in 2016.
No GOP candidate, not even John Kasich, had a chance going up against the first woman presidential candidate of a major party in American history. It was impossible to mount a successful campaign against her without offending more than half of the voting public.
The GOP wrote this election off many months ago. Bush and Kasich were their best shots, and they couldn't make it past the Trump media hype.
Proud Public Servant
(2,097 posts)1) Averages count way more than individual polls. Except for a brief period in late July-early August (i.e., after Trump's convention bounce but before Hillary's), Hillary has always been ahead in the averages.
2) RCP is the most conservative of all the major aggregators. The RCP average has Hillary up by 5.6%. This is about the margin by which Bill Clinton defeated GHW Bush, and greater than the margins by which Obama beat Romney, Bush beat Kerry, Carter beat Ford -- and, indeed, by which Dewey didn't defeat Truman.
3) The Upshot shows Hillary with 272 solid Democratic electoral votes -- that is, states where every single poll shows the state leaning Democrat. You can add in many more votes when you start including states where most polls show a Dem lean, but one or two call it a toss-up.
4) If you look at 538 over the past few weeks, the only difference between their "Now-cast" (i.e., if the election were held today), "Polls-only Forecast" (for Nov. 8), and "Polls-plus Forecast" (their most conservative model) is whether Hillary gets the Obama 2012 map plus North Carolina but minus Iowa (341 EV), the Obama 2012 map plus North Carolina (347 EV), or the Obama 2012 map plus North Carolina and Arizona (358 EV). In other words, their worst-case scenario has her winning by 71 electoral votes.
Calm down and GOTV!
JNelson6563
(28,151 posts)JustABozoOnThisBus
(23,283 posts)Well, not about the race for prez, but the others, the house, the senate, the state governments.
Get out and vote.
ileus
(15,396 posts)They don't have the numbers to beat us at President EVER AGAIN.
We have a lock on this one position forever.
whatthehey
(3,660 posts)WY at R+35
OK at R+30
NE at R+27
AR at R+24
KY at R+23
AL or WV at R+22
LA at R+20
We'd need 6 of them plus TN MT ND SD KS and ID all at 10+ or more AND all the leaners/tossups like TX UT AK OH MO IA GA and SC.
Nope I think a 40 state dream is exactly that. a 48 state dream is...a dream on a dream foundation.
Starry Messenger
(32,342 posts)salin
(48,954 posts)The national campaign director - stepped back over the weekend. They would need miraculous GOTV given how close the race is. For them - just hoping that ralley attendance = getting out the vote - is a very risky strategy. But that seems to be much of the strategy.
blogslut
(37,955 posts)Nervous is good. Nervous means you care. Now, use that nervousness for good. VOTE and take people to vote with you. Nag your neighbors and pretty much anyone you come across.
HughBeaumont
(24,461 posts)His probability is so awful, Hillary doesn't NEED Ohio to win. She may still win Ohio anyway. The Sea Of Tea isn't going to be enough to hold off the Democratic stronghold counties. And no way is she losing PA.
Put it this way . . . when Texas is in play in an election that features Hillary Clinton on the other side, you know your party fucked up royally.
Egnever
(21,506 posts)I am also willing to bet they are trying to bring the polls closer to reality at this stage. All of a sudden hillary is surging...yea not buying it.
Like the media there needs to be a horse race to sell polls. She has been ahead of the cretin the whole time.
Jim Beard
(2,535 posts)Tarrant County voters smashed turnout records Monday, as voters began flocking to the polls to once and for all weigh in on the Nov. 8 presidential election.
At least two hours before polls closed, more than 33,000 Tarrant County residents had already voted in person, according to unofficial totals.
It could be one of two things, said Frank Phillips, Tarrant Countys election administrator. It could be that overall turnout is going to shoot up over past years or people are just trying to get in early (on the first day) and vote.
I think we were all expecting to break a record today, he said. Its possible that we could break an early voting record overall.
Mondays turnout tops past local records in presidential races: 30,133 voters went to the polls on the first day of early voting in 2012 and 28,757 went on the first day of early voting in 2008, Tarrant County election records show.
It has been steady all day, Phillips said. We havent heard of any problems.
Read more here: http://www.star-telegram.com/news/politics-government/election/article110199717.html#storylink=cpy