Republicans CANNOT gut Social Security with "reconciliation"...they'd need Democrats.

[Miles Archer]

Representative Sam Johnson, chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee’s Social Security subcommittee, has introduced a bill to cut Social Security benefits. Why he is doing this, and what it means, is extremely hard to say. Any reckoning with the politics has to begin with a grasp of the bill’s effect. It would eliminate Social Security’s actuarial deficit entirely through spending cuts — indeed, more than entirely through spending cuts. Social Security taxes bring in about 13.2 percent of taxable payroll. Bringing the program into balance entirely through cuts would bring spending down to that level. Johnson would cut it another percentage point lower:



It is really hard to overstate just what a political catastrophe it would be for Republicans to try to pass a plan like this. Republicans have always been extremely skittish about messing with Social Security. When they tried to privatize the system in 2005, they very carefully exempted all current beneficiaries, and framed their plan as a no-lose chance for everybody to get rich through the stock market, with no downside for anybody. (Had their plan passed, the 2008 crash would have blown it to smithereens.) Even Republicans most eager to cut Social Security have promised not to make any cuts for current retirees or anybody retiring within a decade. But Johnson’s plan would beginning cutting as early as 2019.

As a public-opinion matter, it would be insane for Republicans to attempt to pass this bill. It would be almost as insane as a matter of voting mechanics. It would require not only 218 House votes but also 60 Senators to cut Social Security. (The Senate can pass fiscal bills with just a majority, but those bills, called reconciliation bills, are not permitted to touch Social Security.) That means, as in 2005, Democratic support would be needed to pass the bill. And the over/under on the number of Senate Democrats likely to vote for a bill like this is 0.0000000.

Republicans could eliminate the Senate filibuster to pass this bill. But that would still leave the problem that Donald Trump repeatedly promised not to cut the program, ever.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/12/are-republicans-crazy-enough-to-go-after-social-security.html

[duffyduff]

1. That would be the end of the Republican Party forever.

No more Putin, no more gerrymandering, no more vote rigging. They know better than to tamper with it.

They talk a good game, but they will NOT follow through. They don't dare.

[marylandblue]

3. No they don't know better

And they have been waiting for this moment for decades, so they will try and hopefully fail.

[duffyduff]

4. Yes, they do.

It takes a Democrat to pull this shit.

Think of Bill Clinton and "welfare reform" or Obama with education.

[leftofcool]

2. It will get passed and Democrats will cave into to it.

Democrats want infrastructure jobs for the progressives who can't pay their college loans so Social Security will be they trade off.

[Wellstone ruled]

5. There are Bills that have been pasted

and laying on the House Majority Leaders desk. All he has to do is,dump all the Language inside a given pasted Senate Bill and Keep the Header. Replace the language and vote it up on a voice vote and send back to the Senate which would do the same.

[KG]

6. they'll find dem votes.

and we'll read the excuses right here, just like during the bush years. let's keep that powder dry!