State revenue growth slows, sparking fear of recession

[n2doc]

State tax revenue growth slowed in the first several months of the new fiscal year, forcing legislators and budget officials in states across the country to slash projections and spending plans while raising concerns that the next economic recession is just around the corner.

A new report from the National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO) found that half the states have experienced revenue shortfalls in the early months of fiscal year 2017, which began in August. The shortfalls come as sales and personal income tax growth slows and corporate income tax declines.

Those shortfalls forced 19 states to enact mid-year budget cuts in fiscal year 2016 — more than any year outside of a recession since 1990. Some budget analysts fear slowing sales and income tax growth can be a leading indicator that an economic downturn is right around the corner.

“A recession is coming sometime soon, but I think economists in all of the state offices would tell you that there’s a really hard economic forecasting angle of predicting when that’s going to happen,” said Michael Cohen, director of California’s Department of Finance.

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http://thehill.com/policy/finance/310036-state-revenue-growth-slows-sparking-fear-of-recession

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1. There'll be a recession...

We had a recession at the beginning of the Reagan Administration and at the beginning of the Bush Jr. administration.

Which indicates to me that they (republican puppet masters) know how to create a recession. There was another at the ends of both of those administrations too.

American citizens don't really have a grasp on when something begins or ends, so they blame it on the democrats even though the republicans are at the helm. Then the republican majority (in congress) that is swept in during the reelection campaign enacts the bad programs that create the end of second term recession that they dump on the democrats (although Bush Sr. was elected in '88).

We will have a recession, they will cut taxes to stimulate the economy (which it won't do) then they'll repatriate the money that the big corporations don't want to pay taxes on, they'll use that money to purchase traditionally publicly owned utilities and that'll create so many jobs that they'll win by a landslide in 2020, at which time the increased fees for these utility services and the price of fuel will go through the roof. They'll most likely lose control of congress in 2018, but the economy will start to tick up after the election which Trump will be given credit for.

Our only real hope is that the incoming administration is dogged by the Russian hacking that they won't be able to get their agenda going. A whole bunch of congressional hearings holding up all cabinet appointments.

[n2doc]

2. I don't see their policies getting us out of a recession

They will go full out austerity, and then when that fails will start a war.

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4. You're right, if they go full out austerity...

We won't pull out of the recession. I don't see that happening though. If they play the short game, that's how that'll play out. If they punish their own supporters with austerity, the republicans will lose big in 2018 and there won't be near the damage to our country, to our economy, to the world.

Even if they do start a war, members of congress aren't rewarded by starting a war. That benefits the president some, but the individual members of congress will lose their reelection bids. That's not a smart play moving forward.

Trump has backed off on so many of his promises, I don't see him repealing Obamacare, or reducing food stamps, or SSI, or any of the other things that I see so many democrats predicting, at least not in the first 2 to 4 years.

If that is the action that the republicans take, there will be less pain because they won't be in power for very long. If they move slowly to phase out the benefits and phase in this 'new money' we are in real trouble.

Also, if they act on eliminating these safety net programs, it will make the democrats look correct and they'll be out on their ears.

No, I think they'll get the economy going by bringing this repatriated money in and then when they're saluting the flag with Lee Greenwood's "God Bless the USA" playing in the background they'll begin eliminating these safety net programs. So that the elimination of these programs takes place after they are secure in the majority.

[uponit7771]

3. Uncertainty no doubt brings less spending, was it this bad during the RayGun years?

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5. Reagan's first recession was deep...

I was in the army and we had all kinds of people who got out of the service return to the service because there were no jobs in the economy.

I'm kind of surprised that the republicans worship Reagan with the recession as deep as it was. There were people saying that it may be more accurate to call it a depression.

Apparently not everyone suffered equally.