If the Election goes to a House vote, this is what the Congress votes may look like
The good news is the there could be a stampede away from Trump if the White House lets out really damning intel on Trump from the CIA. What would have to happen is that members of the Electoral College would have to coalesce around a strong natural contender for president and enough of them vote for him (presumedly "him") in strong enough numbers to bring Trump down below 270. That's 37 electors across Trump's 33 states.
The bad new is that's pretty unlikely, given how much pressure the current rogue electors are probably facing for threatening to revolt. They'll face retaliation in business, political careers, personal contacts, social access. Behind the scenes the thumbscrews are coming out, have no doubt.
If, if, if... the Electoral College vote knocks Trump below 270, he's still heavily favored to get elected by the House of Representatives.
The thing that'll probably stop Republicans from slipping over to support a compromise or moderate candidate is the fact that this process would leave their party brutally divided for the next four years. No one wants that on their shoulders. There would have to be a tipping point reached in back room deals long before that vote is taken in early January, just after the house convenes.
If the electors put up a Romney or a Powell as a unifier, Trump would probably prevail. If they put up Paul Ryan, Ryan would probably ask for his name to be taken out of contention. He's coy like that. So cute. He might screw Trump if he thought he could get away with it, but he doesn't want to appear too ambitious. So, who they could come up with is an uncertainty. Someone not afraid to play top monkey with Cheetoh.
This is my guess of how the states would break down if it somehow got into the House.
Certain for Trump (21 votes)
Alabama
Arkansas
Florida
Georgia
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Michigan
Mississippi
Missourah
Montana
Nebraska
North Carolina
Ohio
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
South Carolina
Tennessee
West Virginia
These next 12 is where the deals would have to be cut...
Probably for Trump (6 votes)
Arizona (some mods plus 4 of 9 are Democrats)
North Dakota (ND's sole rep is Kevin Cramer, who Trump just passed over for energy secretary because he was... wait for it... stupider than Rick Perry. He doesn't know how electricity works. So if he's vindictive, he might could be bought off)
Texas (We don't like him down here. Trump was a far weaker candidate than Romney in Texas)
Virginia (4/11 Dems, some moderate Republicans, somehow)
Wisconsin (3/8 Dems, Paul Ryan probably doesn't relish the thought of working with Trump and is a deal cutter)
Wyoming (Liz Cheney... ew)
Possibly anti-Trump Republican-voting states (6 votes)
Alaska (Don Young, AK's sole Rep, is "not a fan" of the Big Orangutan)
Colorado (Trump's comments at the Convention PO'd a couple of CO GOP Reps, plus 3/7 are Dems)
Idaho (both ID reps have spoken bluntly about Trump's fitness for office before the election, especially Mike Simpson, but both towed the line after October)
Maine (2 Reps: 1 Dem, 1 GOP. They can compromise against Trump or be irrelevant)
South Dakota (GOP Rep. Kristi Noemi has been offended by Trump and refused to take the Sec'y of Agiculture gig from him)
Utah
Sure for Clinton (17 votes)
California
Connect
Delaware
Hawaii
Illinois
Maryland
Mass
Minnysohdah
Nevada
New Hamp
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
Oregon
Rhode Peninsula
Vermont
Washington
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