Can Republicans Get to 60 Senate Seats In 2018?

[DonViejo]

December 20, 2016 By Taegan Goddard

Stuart Rothenberg: “By any measure, Democrats are on the defensive in the next fight for Senate control. A three-seat Democratic midterm gain, which would give the party a majority, looks virtually impossible given the seats up this cycle.”

“A net change of eight seats would be large by historical standards but not unprecedented. Swings of at least eight Senate seats have occurred in four of the last 17 midterm elections – 1958, 1986, 1994 and 2014 – and in six of the last 34 elections (going back to 1950).”

“The problem for Republicans is that these big Senate swings have always happened against the sitting president’s party. The sole exception, since the direct election of senators, occurred in 1934, when President Franklin Roosevelt’s party gained ten Senate seats. Two years earlier, when Roosevelt won a landslide presidential victory, his party gained a dozen Senate seats.”

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https://politicalwire.com/2016/12/20/can-republicans-get-60-senate-seats-2018/

[still_one]

1. We better hope not

[Ohioblue22]

2. Probably dem turn out for Non presidential elections is usually

Pretty poor

[oldtime dfl_er]

3. wait

so which is it...3 seats? 8 seats? 6 seats? How many do we need to simply deny the rethugs a majority? I am willing to MOVE to a state where my vote will make a difference, if a lot of others are willing to do that also. Let's find the state that has a vulnerable rethug senator, and a short residency requirement, and let's all move there for a few months in 2018.

[Ace Rothstein]

5. If we lose 8 seats in the Senate then we're fucked.

A lot will depend on the state of the country come 2 years from now.

[HoneyBadger]

10. That would have worked for the Presidential election

If 2 million Californians moved for 6 months, could have swept every state

[PoliticAverse]

14. In the Senate beginning Jan 2017 the republicans will have 52 seats...

the Democrats will have 46 and there are 2 independents who vote with the Democrats.

The Republicans lost 2 Senate seats in this election.

[unblock]

4. it may not matter.

if they win enough seats (e.g., if they wind up with 57 total) , they may have enough votes to remove the cloture rule altogether (or change the cloture number to something they can reliably beat, e.g., from 60 to 55). note that it used to be 67 until an older rule change.

[PhilosopherKing]

6. A lot of this depends on Trump success

If the Democrats help Trump succeed, they are digging their own graves.

If Trump fails, the Repubs will not gain additional seats.

This is why the Dems need to oppose EVERYTHING!

I know it is a cynical view, but think of how the Dems fought in 2005, 2006 and won both the House and the Senate. They fought SS Privatization and it proved to be a good move. Let the Repubs own everything bad and the voters will reward the Dems for it.

[Sherman A1]

7. The Democrats need to oppose everything

because pretty much everything being proposed is anti worker, anti senior, anti middle class, not just to oppose Trump & the GOP politically, but rather to stop the concepts that they are pushing forward.

[PhilosopherKing]

8. Of course but...

Compromising with him on anything and the Dems will own whatever crap the Repubs put forth. That's why I say they should oppose everthing, no compromise.

[yeoman6987]

9. True. So many seats on the democratic side are seats that trump won

Repugs have WV and ND on the hope list. Not sure what other 21 democratic seats are up. We probably need an OP just discussing the actual 23 seats up for reelection. And the 8 seats the repugs have going up. I can't believe the Democratic Party has so many to defend. I know Cruz's seat is up in Texas. We may need Wendy Davis to run against Cruz who is not popular among repugs right now.

[Kingofalldems]

15. Since you constantly post on this subject, you should post an OP, yeoman6987.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=8384461

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=1643310

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=8366417

[Wellstone ruled]

11. Your post cuts to the chase.

If one was to predict as of today,my answer is YES,our State level Democratic Party is in deep sh&t. So many Dems have thrown up their hands and said eff it.

[pstokely]

20. Dems could still lose seats even if tRump fails, based on the map

nt

[Freethinker65]

12. Yes. Depends who votes and who controls the voting

[SlimJimmy]

13. Maybe. Two years is long time in the political world. But as of now,

definitely doable. It's time to stop whining about who won the election and get to work at the local and state level. Remember, "It's the economy, stupid."

[uponit7771]

16. YES ! If they Voter suppressed once they'll easily do it again. The ballot box is the top DNC issue

[Sen. Walter Sobchak]

17. Trump's relationship with Congress is going to be interesting.

His hoard could just as easily turn on the Republicans in the House and Senate if they're perceived to be obstructing Trump but I don't think they have the organization the teabaggers had to primary the incumbents.

[LaydeeBug]

18. Yep. They count the votes.

They can do anything now

[pstokely]

19. not impossible, but not likely, midterms typically aren't good for the president's party

probably less likely the the Dems retaking the Senate, but that's not likely either based on the map, but 2 years is a political lifetime