The Demographics argument.

[white_wolf]

Hey, DU, I've got a question. For years now, I've heard the argument that the Democratic Party was the wave of the future due to the fact that minority populations were increasing and white populations were declining and that those minorities tended to support Democrats. I understand the logic behind the argument, but I'm not sure it holds water. If, for example, African-Americans were to become the majority, why would they continue to vote Democratic? Some would, but I'm not sure they would do so in their current numbers.

To sum up my concerns, conservatism is a trait common to all people, not just whites so I'm wary of relying too much on demographics. I mean, don't get me wrong, I would be thrilled with a permanent Democratic majority, but I don't see it happening solely through demographics.

I haven't done much research on this issue so maybe I'm missing something important.

[FarCenter]

1. White 63.7%, Hispanic/Latino 16.3%, Black 12.2%, Asian 4.7% - Hispanic/Latino and Asian are growing

White is declining and Black is holding constant.

While a split between R = White and D = Hispanic/Black/Asian coalition is possible, it is not likely.

Besides, the tendency is for the Blacks and Hispanics to compete, since they live in the same geographic areas. For example the CA Senate race between Harris and Sanchez, the DNC leadership race between Ellison and Perez, and the race for Rangel's seat between Wright and Espaillat in the primary.

[LanternWaste]

2. what specifically leads you to allege "I'm not sure they would do so in their current numbers..."

If you haven't done research, what specifically leads you to allege "I'm not sure they would do so in their current numbers..." and "conservatism is a trait common to all people," both of which your entire premise rests on?

Additionally, I haven't seen anyone arguing a Democratic majority can/will be achieved solely due to demographics, merely that it is an important tool to consider along with other tools.

[Wounded Bear]

3. The Electoral College is basically a gerrymander against demographics...nt