Survey: Trump won big among voters who decided in the last 2 weeks of the campaign

[applegrove]

Survey: Trump won big among voters who decided in the last 2 weeks of the campaign

Updated by Tara Golshan at Vox

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/12/21/14025198/trump-undecided-final-weeks-survey

"SNIP..............


The new data comes from the University of Pennsylvania’s Institute for the Study of Citizens and Politics, which surveyed the same panel of people two weeks before the election and again about three weeks after the election.

The researchers found that during that period, Trump’s support among panel respondents increased by 2.3 percentage points, while Clinton’s declined by 1.7 percentage points.

Dan Hopkins, who oversaw the survey, writes at FiveThirtyEight that this suggests Trump didn’t just outperform the polls because the polls were wrong, but rather that there was late movement toward him from undecided voters and even some Clinton supporters.

In other words, more voters seem to have decided to support Trump in the final weeks of the election than support Clinton — a shift that very well could have cost her the race, since she lost three key swing states by less than 1 percentage point each.


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[Hugin]

1. Could this be the Comey Letter effect?

Sure looks that way.

[JHan]

2. The speculation too, the dodgy leaks suggesting indictment etc

[applegrove]

4. I saw a gap in how people responded to her after a debate vs. in the last two weeks.

She wasn't getting her message out on what she would do for labour. That is because the MSM wasn't covering that part of her speech and because she wasn't a great communicator (except in debates). Comey too. Bill Clinton meeting Attorney General on the tarmac forcing Lynch to recuse herself from anything having to do with the investigation into emails. So Comey went in front of congress and promised to update the congress on any further investigations. Which he then did two weeks before the election. He should have not editorialized in front of congress at all.

It was so close there are 20 reasons why Hillary lost.

[BeyondGeography]

3. Yeah, Comey, but she never could hold her Post-debate leads

Persuadables would see them together at the debates and HRC benefited. On their own, he did better. She never did get traction with undecideds. Many were obviously looking for a way not to vote for her and Comey didn't help.

"This has been a campaign that has thrived on moments,” Mook said. “When voters see the candidates juxtaposed, we do better. When they’re not juxtaposed, he normalizes.”

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/11/hillary-clinton-loses-2016-election-214439

[BigDemVoter123]

5. He couldn't have won THAT big, as he still fell 3 million votes short!

[Wellstone ruled]

6. The last week of the campaign we were seeing the shift.

It was so evident in the Ohio and Pennzey areas,when we did our debrief after phone banking,we would relay these comments and concerns to NYC Headquarters and was like falling on deaf ears.