I know Larry Summers isn't everyone's favorite guy, but I heard him on NPR today . . . .

[Stinky The Clown]

. . . . and he is calling the stock market rally a "sugar high". He says that is 6 to 12 months we could be in a recession. There are early indicators that point to this. He says, however, that predicting a recession a year out is virtually impossible when the prediction is based on traditional market leading indicators.

This time is different. The cause of any coming recession will be Trump. He cites history. When authoritarians take over a government the consistent pattern is an economic rally (the sugar high) followed by bad times. Even very bad times.

I looked for a link but couldn't find one.

[Eliot Rosewater]

1. Fucking stock market is why we are in this fucking mess

Fucking corporations, greed, etc.

You dont need corporations, stocks or stock markets. All of us would be vastly better off without any of it.

[Blue_true]

8. The original idea of a stock market was to provide

Funds to companies to grow. The original purpose of investment banks was to provide funds to small companies for a stake in the companies. Both are way off the mark from their original purpose, the stock market is 90% trading, with the 10% involved in IPO style financing.

The real financiers of new ideas and economic growth are venture capital firms that range from a few million dollars to billions of dollars in capital to invest. A recent trend is for "angel investors" to fund very small companies or individuals to forward progress in an area those investors have a personal interest in.

[randome]

11. Just like dinosaurs were a good idea for a while, too.

I agree with you, it's just that human culture operates the opposite of entropy. Instead of becoming more disordered over time, we become ever more complex and 'top-heavy' -to the point where cultural 'evolution' is self-defeating.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]Where do uncaptured mouse clicks go?[/center][/font][hr]

[titaniumsalute]

2. Not much of a sugar high...

Dow is down like 200+ points just this week. S&P also down this week. I will say it will be like down 1,000 points by the end of February.

[Horse with no Name]

3. I have what I considered a dear dear liberal friend

whose entire savings is in the stock market.
She and her husband voted trump because their stockbroker told them he would make them a lot of money.
Honestly? I hope they lose every fucking dime.

And this is someone who was very dear to me.

But their personal greed was more important than mine and my daughters and granddaughters lives so fuck them the way they fucked me.

[titaniumsalute]

4. Oof

Well they will be in for a rather rude awakening. Divest and divest now. I have my stuff spread out all over the place in my portfolio.

[Blue_true]

9. The best thing to do is use the rally to go to cash.

And stay in cash. Euro backed cash instruments are the best place to be, as is Canadian cash instruments. Trump may hurt them short term, but over four years, they should vastly outperform the US Dollar backed cash instruments (bonds, CDs, Munies) and stocks.

[haele]

7. Yes, "make them a lot of money" means the stockbroker is going to make a lot of money.

As they have to move stocks around following the latest high and jumping from falling stock to falling stock.

Stockbrokers that promise "make a lot of money" instead of focusing on a balanced portfolio with safety investments that grows at a stable rate are very conscious on the fact that no matter what happens to their customer, they'll be the ones making money on a regular basis through the fees.

Haele

[haele]

6. Dow is pretty much removed from the US GDP/economy. S&P is the one to watch.

Along with NASDAQ. So Dow being up really is more like window-dressing than a bellwether on the U.S. economy. Every time someone says "The Dow is Up", I go "Goody, the banks and financial institutions are doing well."
Most real businesses are on S&P and NASDAQ.

Haele

[underpants]

5. I was going to cash out last week but held out.

I have a pension so my 401 type plan is really okay money.

[Blue_true]

10. Go to cash now. And stay there. Instead of

US bonds, look at German and Canadian bonds and CDs. It is clear that Trump is crazy, soon the economic damage to the USA will follow.

[underpants]

13. I will look into it.

Thanks

[Dawson Leery]

12. Trade/Immigration policy along with an incorherent

set of regulations could cause investors to think twice before parking their $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ in America.

Cash and foreign bonds are the way to go.

Gold may be something to have at this time too.*

*I am not one of those gold standard jackals. Gold is a commodity that is used as a hedge against the greater economy.
If the economy crashed, gold goes up. When the economy improves, it falls.

[Dawson Leery]

14. +1,000,000