With no allies, Republicans step away from precipice of Obamacare repeal

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

As they struggle to figure out how to deliver on the most important (and repeated) promise they made to their constituents over the last eight years — repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act — Republicans face two sets of problems, both of which are far thornier than they imagined.

The first are the policy problems, which arise from the fact that health care reform is incredibly complex (and yes, they’re just realizing that now). The second are the political problems, which may be even more challenging. And their political task is going to become much harder when they actually propose something and try to get it through Congress, for a reason few seem to have noticed: Republicans are totally alone. 

Health care reform, more than perhaps any other issue, implicates — and potentially threatens — the interests of a wide array of constituencies, groups, industries, and political actors. You’ve got citizens/patients/consumers, of course. Then there are the doctors, and the hospitals, and the insurers, and the various health care industries industries, and patient advocacy groups, and even larger groups like the AARP. After all, we’re talking about a sector that employs over 12 million Americans, makes up 18 percent of the entire American economy, and touches absolutely everyone’s life. If you get opposition from even some of those interests, the whole effort can begin to crumble.

That’s why, when Democrats set out to construct the ACA in 2009, they spent an enormous amount of time and effort trying to co-opt as many of those groups as they could, often to the consternation of liberals. It was a tricky balancing act: some got on board wholeheartedly, some maintained opposition, and some, like the insurance industry, seemed to toggle between support and opposition on an almost daily basis. They had to be cajoled, convinced, threatened, and bought off.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2017/02/03/with-no-allies-republicans-step-away-from-precipice-of-repeal/?tid=pm_opinions_pop&utm_term=.65d8073d2de6

[manicraven]

1. Republicans are totally alone. Love that sentence.

If they try to do this to the American people and stories come pouring out about how John Doe, etc., died as a result of suddenly having no access to coverage, they lose elections far and wide.

[Wounded Bear]

5. Agreed...and it's nice to see that no Dems gave them any cover...

well, no significant number of them anyway.

I'm hoping with the word getting out, all but the really die-hard Trumplodytes will realize how the ACA/Obamacare has helped them, including those who didn't buy insurance through the exchanges. Everybody benefitted from the the regulations layed on the insurance companies through this act.

[StrictlyRockers]

2. Yeah, I don't see how this doesn't become a political mill stone around their necks

for decades to come. No matter where they go from here, they will get killed politically for any repeal of the ACA. They also own any modifications now.

[MineralMan]

3. Yes. The interesting thing is that, if they do repeal it,

that will take effect for the 2018 year. Suddenly, a lot of people who were finally able to get health insurance through ACA, will be cut off from it or see their premiums go through the roof. Guess who they'll blame.

That's the dilemma the Republicans have. A lot of people don't even realize that they only have insurance because of Obamacare. They think it's some other program, called the Exchange or something like that. When that safety net is taken away or becomes completely unaffordable, they'll know the Republicans did it, because they've said again and again that they're repeal it.

The end result: A bunch of middle-class Republicans voters are going to discover that their Republican Rep and Senator caused them to lose their insurance. Not a good result to have during an election year, I'd think.

[Jim Lane]

7. Don't assume it would take effect in 2018

Some Republicans have talked about a "repeal and delay" strategy. They would enact repeal immediately, to keep the base happy, but the repeal wouldn't take effect for a while -- maybe even not until after the 2018 midterms! -- to give them time to work out a replacement plan.

One problem is that insurers, already somewhat spooked by the current uncertainty, might withdraw from the marketplace. The insurers want to have their plans for 2018 in place by this spring. A "repeal and delay" with no idea what the replacement might be could lead to millions of people losing their coverage even without the repeal having formally taken effect. I suppose in that case the Republicans, trying to avert the electoral impact you describe, would blame it on the insurance companies.

[beachbum bob]

4. this aint over by a longshot and democrats must stay at them on this...as another lie of the admin

and their conservative leaders...repeal..no repeal...its a dead weight on their necks

[Wounded Bear]

6. Agreed...and we need to keep the pressure on through '18...

I suspect some seats are within reach, that may have not been pre-Trump.