For Trump foes, Democratic gains may remain elusive in 2018

[TomCADem]

The Republican plan to disenfranchise voters has been very well funded and a long time in the making. Indeed, in 2018, Trump will likely gain seats in Congress and claim a mandate to double down and expand on his authoritative regime.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/for-trump-foes-democratic-gains-may-remain-elusive-in-2018/ar-AAmDCTa

Passionate protests against Donald Trump's presidency have swelled the ranks of Democratic activists, but their new enthusiasm faces a hard reality: Republicans remain well-positioned to retain their grip on power in the 2018 elections.

While Republicans hold only a slim majority in the U.S. Senate, Democrats occupy most of the seats up for election in two years. That means they must play defense against Republicans, especially in 10 states that Trump won.

In the U.S. House, Republicans will be aided by favorable district boundaries that were drawn to maintain GOP political dominance. In some cases, the congressional districts were gerrymandered to pack high numbers of Democratic voters into just a few districts as a way to create a greater number of Republican-leaning seats.

"Democrats are extremely fired up right now," said Sam Wang, a Princeton University neuroscientist and statistician who has developed a statistical model for analyzing partisan gerrymandering.

[guillaumeb]

1. Agreed.

And this:

"Democrats are extremely fired up right now," said Sam Wang, a Princeton University neuroscientist and statistician who has developed a statistical model for analyzing partisan gerrymandering.

"Fired up" means nothing if likely Democratic voters are prevented from voting.

[TomCADem]

4. But Even if They Vote, They Are Voting in Highly Compacted Democratic Districts...

...the only way you could actually change the composition of Congress is to flip Republicans to Democrats in the numerous Republican leaning seats.

For example, lets say you have 4 Districts and 300 voters with 150 Democrats and 150 Republicans. You have to split the 4 districts so that each has 75 voters. What Republicans did through creative gerrymandering is create a situation where you have:

District 1: 75 Democratic voters.

District 2: 50 Republican voters: 25 Democratic voters.

District 3: 50 Republican voters. 25 Democratic voters.

District 4: 50 Republican voters. 25 Democratic voters.

So, under this system, even with a highly motivated Democratic base and a demoralized Republican base, you will still likely have Republicans winning the majority of the seats. The only way to reverse the situation is to flip Republicans to Democrats, which is tough to do.

[guillaumeb]

6. Alternatively,

as Bernie Sanders showed, a progressive economic message can motivated people from both parties.

And there is no doubt that the gerrymandering which followed the 2010 election is a huge reason for the GOP advantages. But Senators are elected statewide so Senators have a better chance of winning even in GOP controlled states. Witness McCaskill and Manchin.

But the message and enthusiasm are vital.

[TomCADem]

9. Bernie Couldn't Even Win the Democratic Primary. Russ Feingold Lost...

...in Wisconsin despite a progressive message and Bernie's strong backing.

My take is that we all took Democrats for granted and many progressives bought into the propaganda that there really is no difference between Clinton and Trump. Anti-establishment was confused with progressive and support for the working class. People want immediate gratification, rather than incremental progress.

Of course, look at all the protests as Trump threatens Democratic ideals that have been long established, but he is anti-establishment. Yes, he is demolishing them in favor the rich and powerful, but what did we all expect? What did Susan Sarandon and Cornell West think when they were supporting Jill Stein? They took Social Security, Medicare, the EPA, and the Affordable Care Act, etc. for granted, and thought they had the luxury of casting a protest vote for shits and giggles.

And NOW folks are protesting. Well, it is better late than never, but folks just do not appreciate what they have until it is taken away. Hopefully, the wait to regain what we lost will not be too long, but you never know.

[guillaumeb]

11. Feingold lost because of truly massive spending by the right wing in Wisconsin.

The same reason that Walker won.

And I have no sympathy for protest voters who waste a vote supposedly sending a message that never gets received. Stein voters who claim to be Green will witness the GOP dismantling much of the (admittedly limited) progress that occurred under President Obama.

[hibbing]

2. I wish they'd play offense for once

Gore ran away from Clinton, so many ran away from the ACA, and of course a lot of them will vote for the massive tax cuts once again coming for the ruling class.


Peace

[TomCADem]

7. Who is They? Don't You Mean Us?

Relying on some sort of top down direction from the Democratic overlords is not going to work. It didn't work when Democrats took over Congress under Bush. Rather, folks got sick of the wars and a Republican Congress giving Bush the green light. Before President Obama, you had Democrats gradually regaining control of Congress.

[Blue Idaho]

3. Bullshit...

Thes best defense is a strong offense... Give em hell!!!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Overly pessimistic.

[demosincebirth]

8. Not if we GOTV.

[TomCADem]

12. Not Just GOTV. We Need to Expand The Base By Spreading the Message on the Ground

Trump's biggest con is to loudly scapegoat people who are different while quietly pushing policies that will benefit the very rich. Thus, even though the overall welfare of the WWC men might fall under Trump, if it falls less relative to women and minorities, it will feel like progress. The key as MLK and Lyndon Johnson knew back in the 1960s is to highlight how



"Now that's a fact. That the poor white has been put into this position, where through blindness and prejudice, he is forced to support his oppressors. And the only thing he has going for him is the false feeling that he’s superior because his skin is white—and can't hardly eat and make his ends meet week in and week out." - Martin Luther King, Jr.

[kimbutgar]

10. We need to start now getting people ids to vote

Register them and follow up to make sure their names are not expunged from voting lists.

But getting state ids should be priority number one now.