How will the 9th circuit rule, and what about the SCOTUS?

[ProudLib72]

Pretty sure the 9th circuit will uphold the ban. Anyone see any reason they would not? I think they understand that giving in to tRump would set a dangerous precedent. However, if (when) it goes to the SCOTUS, that is a completely different story. I can see an even split.

[drray23]

1. The 9th circuit already rejected the stay that the justice dept was asking for.

As far as the supreme court I dont think it will be a split. The supreme court justices may be left or right leaning but they all want the rule of law to prevail. They wont let the executive branch try to bully the judicial branch into passing what most experts and courts so far have found unconstitutional. I am pretty sure even justice Roberts will rule against the ban. There is no wiggle room to be had there.

[ProudLib72]

3. Yes, they were waiting for more

depositions from both sides. But I don't count that as an indication of leaning toward one side or the other. I'm just going off the premise that has been espoused here on DU that they are liberal.

[Blue_true]

8. The rejection was likely by a small part of the 9th

Bench. But given that the Bench is the most progressive in the country, it is likely the full Bench will reject the ban (which is the just outcome). I hope that the full Bench smash the ban into pieces and leave no doubt.

[drray23]

9. Yes it was three judges.nt.

[Ms. Toad]

10. That was temporary, pending briefing and a full hearing. n/t

[Horizens]

2. 9th circuit, Supreme Court

If the 9th circuit court upholds the ban and the Supreme Court splits evenly, I think the 9th circuit ruling stands.

[drray23]

4. Yes thats right.nt.

[onenote]

5. I don't think you mean "uphold the ban". You mean uphold the stay granted by the district court.

In any event, if the 9th circuit does uphold the lower court stay, the likely next step for the administration would be to go to the Justice assigned to the 9th Circuit and ask for an emergency ruling lifting the stay. That Justice, as it turns out, is Anthony Kennedy. If he refuses, it probably means the administration is faced with at least a 5-3 loss in the Supreme Court. If he grants the relief (i.e., lifts the stay), you could still end up 4-4.

[ProudLib72]

12. Ooops!

This is getting confusing. The ban on the ban. Yeah, I mean upholding the federal judge's decision.

[Blue_true]

6. On hot button issues, the presiding SCOTUS Justice

Normally poll the entire Supreme Court before granting or rejecting a stay.

[LAS14]

7. They've refused to "quickly reinstate the ban."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-administration-appeals-to-restore-travel-ban-says-earlier-ruling-was-second-guessing-the-president/2017/02/05/6fcdbb5a-eb4c-11e6-80c2-30e57e57e05d_story.html

[truebluegreen]

11. I see 9th Circuit upholding the stay, and SCOTUS also 6-2

with Alito and Thomas dissenting. Semi-sane VERY pro-business Roberts and Kennedy would vote with the liberal wing (mustn't upset the new world order, and this EO does nothing to maintain a stable world business climate); the two xenophobes will vote against.