Is there any chance of taking back the Senate in 2018?

[MoonRiver]

[ananda]

1. Is there a strong democratic organization ..

.. present in places all over each state where a senator is defending a seat?

If there is, then yes, we could do it.

[yeoman6987]

7. 8 GOP seats are up

Arizona, Mississippi, Nebraska, Nevada, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Wyoming are the GOP senators up in 2018.


Democratic senators are up in 23 seats and two independent seats in Vermont and Maine.



.
If we can keep the 25 seats and gain three of the GOP seats, we have majority

[ananda]

10. We can do that!

It only requires strong organization in every state
up for grabs!

Do it Dems!

[MoonRiver]

15. Thanks! That definitely does not sound impossible!

[Lurks Often]

27. Of those states, only Nevada (and maybe AZ) is a possible chance of a picking up a seat.

Even if there is buyers remorse over Trump in those states, it isn't likely that it will cause the voters in those states to suddenly start voting Democratic. Of course a lot can change between now and them, but barring some surprise, it's probable that the Republicans will pick up seats in 2018.

"Democrats in Republican territory: West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana, Missouri, Indiana" link: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/democrats-face-tough-senate-map-in-2018/

Putting a lot of pressure on the Senators in WV, ND, MT, MO & IN to vote in lockstep with the more liberal elements of the Democratic Party in the Senate will only increase their chances of losing in 2018

[machoneman]

2. Yes, but.....

...it's a tall order as we must keep every single seat Dems currently hold and gain at least three more (safety in numbers).

Oddly, one thing that give me hope and I didn't see it coming is this huge and late-dawning groundswell in red states, yes red states, where the voters are up in arms about the Republiscums repealing Obamacare, or the ACA as those dummies call it otherwise. If they lose its benefits, those madder-than-hell voters may even throw out their RW Senators.

Still, we need to put up good candidates, candidates that fight for the voter's rights and not Wall St. Big Business and the ultra-rich.

[femmocrat]

3. It won't be easy.

The repubs have to defend only 10 seats, while the democrat have to fight for 23, plus the two independents!

I googled "senate outlook 2018" and found several articles. Here is one: http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/306210-10-senate-seats-that-could-flip-in-2018

[MineralMan]

4. Sure. But, it will take a very strong GOTV effort

in every state where a Senate seat is up for election. It won't be easy, but it could happen. It will all depend on whether we can turn out Democratic voters in large enough numbers.

We could also take the House, if we do that. Democrats are not famous for turning out in mid-term elections, so we will have to reverse that to have any chance.

[leftynyc]

5. VERY tall order

We're defending far more seats and many are in "red" states. But with a strong message, strong candidates and a great GOTV effort, it could be done.

[exboyfil]

6. No.

Too many Senate seats to defend. This presupposes that we don't have a disaster in the next two years that can be tied to the Republicans. Problem is some of the more likely scenarios can be pawned off on Obama.

Any terrorist attack in the U.S. will be blamed on Obama or the current efforts to stop the EO. Perhaps a right wing U.S. terrorist attack will blow back but no other, and they really don't have a reason to attack.

Getting our butts kicked by China and/or Iran - Obama let military readiness diminish. If we are successful in any such conflict, then it is because of Trump. Kind of harkens back to Rumsfeld blaming Clinton because the military was not ready for Iraq.

Perhaps an economic disaster - again what Trump does in the next two years may be difficult to blame on him and the Republicans.

Perhaps some gross incompetence in some federal department. Unfortunately anything bad that will happen in Education and HUD will be considered a benefit for the Republicans anyway. Perhaps Perry screwing up in Energy, but I see that as a longer term impact.

I think we stand a better chance in the House, but still not much of a chance.

[Tatiana]

8. Can we pick off seats in AZ and NV?

I think Nevada is doable.

We have a lot of seats to defend, but ultimately I think WV will keep Manchin.

It's not likely that we will take it back, but anything is possible. If we pin Trump to every Republican running for office, there is the chance that his disapproval rating will sink them, too.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

14. We need to tie Trump to Republicans everywhere

A lot of the states we are defending are in Trump-won states but if his popularity continues a downhill slide and he keeps inflaming people, who knows? The key will be getting Democrats out to the polls and defending our Senators and seeing if we can pick up some seats. We did great in 2006 and George W. Bush wasn't even as big of a flaming dumpster fire as Trump already is.

[old guy]

9. It will depend how far and how fast

tRump and the repubs push their radical agenda. If they continue as they are, it may be very possible.

[ananda]

11. I'm also hoping that Holder and Kander ..

.. and of course, all of us, force Reeps to
pull back on voter suppression and gerrymandering!

We can do this!

[crazycatlady]

12. Gerrymandering does not affect US senate seats

US house, State House, State Senate, yes.

[Joe941]

13. Unfortunately its unlikely... The House is more realistic.

[still_one]

18. You are right Joe, however, it is still critical that we get out the vote to prevent

a filibuster proof Senate under republican control

[What Is Going On]

16. I have some hope.

One of my FB friends is a life-long Republican. She posted today that she's had it with Republicans, and is going to register as an Independent. Devos being confirmed sent her over the edge. I believe the extreme positions of this administration has brought the batshit crazy nature of the Republicans into stark relief.

[still_one]

17. If you want realistically, here are the numbers. 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate will be conteste

Democrats have 23 seats up for reelection + 2 independents who vote with the Democrats

republicans only have 8 seats up for reelection.

The 2016 election was the most critical election of our lifetime, and we lost EVERYTHING.

Every Democrat running for Senate in a swing state lost to the establishment republican incumbent.

The republicans now control 52 seats in the Senate, and have on 8 seats to be contested in 2018

The Democrats now control 46 seats + 2 independents, and have 23 seats +2 for 25 seats to be contested in 2018

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2018

The numbers do NOT look good for the Democrats in the Senate. It is not impossible, but it isn't good.

The reason why 2018 midterms is so critical is because there is a real possibility that the republicans could pull off a filbuster proof Senate, and we cannot allow that to happen. That is why those 47% who were eligible to vote in 2016, but decided not to, had better

[geek tragedy]

19. Breaking even would be a win, given the map.

[HoneyBadger]

20. Historically, the party out of power (i.e. not my President) always picks up seats

[Orrex]

21. Realistically? Not a great chance.

Every allegedly regretful Trump voter who now doesn't want to take ownership of their catastrophically stupid vote in Nov 2016 will nevertheless happily vote Republican again in Nov 2018 and Nov 2020.


The only chance we have is to inspire 2016's non-voters to go to the polls in large numbers. It's a midterm, though, so the odds aren't great.

We might also hope that generally Left-leaning "conscience" voters who fell for Stein's bullshit might actually get their heads straight and vote Democrat. Not sure about those odds, either.


The real tragedy is that the GOP is overwhelmingly likely to retain control of state legislatures by a wide margin in 2020, meaning that they'll get to fuck with the gerrymandering even further, thereby cementing their dominance well into the next decade at least.

[tavernier]

22. Do you really think we will be allowed to vote by then?

I think our rights will be taken away by then. Just look at how the KGOP (through patsy trump) is structuring our government, making it look like their innocent hands are tied. They won't give up power once they own it, and we no longer have a media strong enough to do anything about it.

[MoonRiver]

24. I am VERY worried about that.

[MichMary]

23. I believe that six

of the Senate seats we will be defending are in states that went for Trump--some heavily. That is why we need to pick our battles. If people like Manchin, Tester, and Heitkamp obstruct reasonable nominees (like Gorsuch, who is certainly qualified) they will have to answer to their voters, who will probably be royally pissed off at them. It's all politics. We need to keep that in mind when we are criticizing the conserva-Dems.

[MFM008]

25. Depends on maggot

In chief.
He's a disaster.

[Freethinker65]

26. No. Taking back the house, even with the gerrymandering, is more likely....

But will be an uphill battle

[Eliot Rosewater]

28. Not sure, one thing I am CERTAIN of however is if anybody votes

3rd party ever again, no.

Even if the number of 3rd party votes dont make the difference, the nonstop bashing of whoever the establishment Democratic candidate is, like Hillary in the past election, will effectively make it impossible for the D to win in many places.

We need a prime time TV show once a month titled "how the 2 party system works?

[Retrograde]

29. If the people flooding the senate phonelines remember

how their senators ignored their wishes, and actually show up and vote, yes.

[eissa]

30. It's going to be an uphill battle

Hopefully, whomever takes over the DNC will get their act together and start mobilizing on the ground quickly and effectively. Our only hope is to make sure we turn out in very LARGE numbers to retain the seats we have, and (if we're lucky) maybe a pick-up in Nevada, Nebraska and/or Texas. But that is a best-case scenario.

[ChoppinBroccoli]

31. Remember The Heavy Anti-Republican Sentiment Of 2008

In 2008, people had gotten so tired of George W. Bush and his Republican co-conspirators that they pretty much voted out anyone who had an R next to their names. I think Drumpf is going to do such a bad job that the sentiment in 2018 will be even worse than in 2008, and we'll see widespread Democratic victories all over the country, even in places where Democrats traditionally don't win. I expect Drumpf to damage the Republican "brand" so badly that they'll be in disarray for a decade. The ONLY way they don't get completely swept out of office over the next 4 years is if some of them finally wake up and decide to impeach this buffoon.

[MarvinGardens]

32. It is possible. Think 1994 in reverse.

As others have pointed out, it won't be easy. One thing I've not seen mentioned: If Trump is able to get his high import tariffs enacted, that will tank the economy. If the economy is terrible in 2018 and can be blamed on a new Republican policy, people will vote with their wallets.

Others mentioned that third parties need to go. I agree that Democrats need to understand that third party votes are damaging. But what of Republicans who would never vote D in a million years? If they come to view Republicans as economic failures, they may vote 3rd party or stay home, which would be just fine for us.

[MoonRiver]

33. You cannot stop people from voting 3rd party.

However, I think we should only allow Democrats to run in our primaries.