2022 will be the year Democrats regain control of the US Senate.

[nkpolitics1212]

2018
Democrats are strongly favored to hold onto
CA-open-D
CT-Murphy-D
DE-Carper-D
HI-Hirono-D
ME-King-I/D
MD-Cardin-D
MA-Warren-D
MI-Stabenow-D
MN-Klobuchar- D
NJ-open-D
NM-Heinrich-D
NY-Gillibrand-D
PA-Casey-D
RI-Whitehouse-D
VT-Sanders-I/D
VA-Kaine-D
WA-Cantwell-D
WI-Baldwin-D
Democrats are slightly favored to hold onto
FL-Nelson-D
OH-Brown-D
Democrats are likely to lose
IN,MO,MT,ND,and WV -5D 43D 57R
Democrats are slightly favored to pick up
AZ-Synema-D +1D 44D 56R
NV-Titus-D +2D 45D 55R
2020
Democrats are strongly favored to hold onto
DE-Coons-D
IL-Durbin-D
MA-Markey-D
MI-Peters-D
MN-Franken-D
NH-Shaheen-D
NJ-Booker-D
NM-Udall-D
OR-Merkley-D
RI-Reed-D
Democrats are slightly favored to hold onto
VA-Warner-D
Democrats are slightly favored to pick up
CO-Salazar-D +1D 46D 54R
NC-Foxx-D +2D 47D 53R
2022
Democrats are strongly favored to hold onto
CA-Harris-D
CO-Bennet-D
CT-Bluementhal-D
HI-Schatz-D
IL-Duckworth-D
MD-Van Hollen-D
NY-Schumer-D
OR-Wyden-D
VT-Leahy-D
WA-Murray-D
Democrats are slightly favored to hold onto
NV-Cortez Masto-D
NH-Hassan-D
Democrats are slightly favored to pick up
MO-Kander-D +1D 48D 52R
NC-Stein-D +2D 49D 51R
PA-Shapiro-D +3D 50D 50R
WI-Pocan-D +4D 51D 49R

[femmocrat]

1. Hope you are right.

In PA, people are p*ssed at Toomey. Lets' hope they remember in November (of 2022.) Interesting that you have Manchin losing in 2018.

[nkpolitics1212]

4. I have Manchin losing because WV is a ruby red state.

I had the other Democratic US Senators from ruby red states losing re-election in 2018.

[bornskeptic]

40. Manchin has won five consecutive statewide elections by double digits.

IN 2012 Obama lost WV by 27 and Manchin won by 24. WV is red in presidential elections, but voter registration is still majority Democratic and Joe Manchin is a prototypical WV Democrat. it will take a major upset to beat him.

[nkpolitics1212]

43. The Democratic US Senate incumbents in Trump states up for re-election in 2018 are

FL-Nelson-D favored to win re-election.
IN-Donnelly-D vulnerable to defeat due to Pence-R campaigning for the Republican nominee.
MI-Stabenow-D favored to win re-election.
MO-McCaskill-D favored to win re-election
MT-Tester-D favored to win re-election.
ND-Heitkamp-D favored to win re-election
OH-Brown-D favored to win re-election.
PA-Casey-D favored to win re-election.
WV-Manchin-D favored to win re-election.
WI-Baldwin-D favored to win re-election.
Democrats will have a net gain of 1 seat, Lose IN, Gain NV and AZ. 49D 51R
In 2020
All Democratic US Senate incumbents up for re-election are favored to win re-election that includes
MI-Peters-D
MN-Franken-D
NH-Shaheen-D
VA-Warner-D
Democrats will pick up CO and NC. 51D 49R

[yeoman6987]

2. Kinda depressing to be honest

The 2020 especially when we have a democratic president, they will have to deal with a repug senate and possible house. Not great.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

3. Let's hope Trump either pisses people off or scares the crap out of everyone so bad that there

is a massive reaction against him and the Republicans. We cannot wait that long....

[Initech]

5. I hope we still have an America by then!

[milestogo]

6. WI-Pocan-D is a member of the House, not the Senate.

[nkpolitics1212]

8. I was predicting that Pocan would challenge Johnson in 2022 and defeat him.

[milestogo]

10. Feingold couldn't defeat him but Pocan will?

I think that's pretty unlikely.

[nkpolitics1212]

16. After Feingold's defeat in 2010.

Baldwin-D won the 2012 US Senate Races against Thompson-R a popular 4 term former Governor.
Pocan-D is the male version of Baldwin, gay and progressive.
Baldwin-D and Pocan-D are stronger campaigners than Feingold-D
Pocan-D won 3 of his US House Races in WI-2CD by over 68 percent of the popular vote.

[dsc]

23. He racked up that margin in a district that has virtually no Republicans

Feingold is a better candidate than he is and Pocan will have a hard time (Baldwin won with Obama winning by high single digits) while Pocan will be running with whomever we nominate for governor against Walker who will at best be in a very tight race.

[nkpolitics1212]

30. What about Ron Kind-D? What are his chances of defeating Walker-R in the 2018 WI Governors Race and

then defeating Johnson-R in the 2022 WI US Senate Race?

Feingold would have still been a member of the US Senate had he ran for the US Senate in 2012 against Thompson-R. Feingold would benefited from Obama coattails.
Baldwin then could challenge Johnson-R in 2016 and defeat him.

[aikoaiko]

7. If I learned anything in 2016, it is not to count chickens before they hatch

Remember the Blue Wave of 2016? Yeah. That didn't happen.

[MoonRiver]

9. Thanks to Comey and Russia. Just saying.

[nkpolitics1212]

12. Clinton lost the 2016 US Presidential election because she failed to win MI,PA,and WI.

Had she won the 3 states, She would have received 278 ev.
There was no ticket splitting in the US Senate Races.
Had McGinty-PA and Feingold-WI, Democrats would have regain control of the US Senate with Kaine breaking the tie vote.

[Calista241]

15. And yet, Democrats today are not even getting close to

The economic issues hat caused us to lose these three states.

We're going to the mat on immigration from countries 98% of the country couldn't find on a map.

[aikoaiko]

39. Yes, an example of why we shouldn't count chickens before hatching

My point is that it isn't going to happen without a plan, hard work, and the right candidates. And even then, as in 2016, bad shit can happen.

[mvd]

11. I think you are forgetting how low Trump may go before 2018

When the manufacturing jobs haven't magically come back, perhaps we hold on to the red state seats.

[Demsrule86]

13. With Trump as the president...

I think it may happen sooner...and if we spend six years out of power... there will be nothing left.

[StevieM]

14. I think Trump's unpopularity will keep 2018 gains to a minimum. And we can win back the Senate

in 2020 if we win seats in places like Maine, Iowa and Georgia.

[nkpolitics1212]

19. Let's say Democratic incumbents in ruby red states up for re-election in 2018

IN-Donnelly-D,MO-McCaskill-D,MT-Tester-D,ND-Heitkamp-D,and WV-Manchin-D win re-election. and Democrats pick up AZ and NV. Democrats will be at a 50-50 tie with Pence-R breaking the tie.
2020- Democrats pick up CO and NC. Democrats will regain control of the US Senate.
If one of the Castro twins decide to challenge Cruz in 2018, How great of the chance Democrats win the TX US Senate Race in 2018?

[poli3]

21. 0% chance TX flips, very good chance FL does

This is why it's ridiculous to speculate about TX, but ignore FL.

[nkpolitics1212]

31. FL is a Democratic held seats with Nelson-D.

Are you saying that Nelson-D is vulnerable to defeat against Scott-R?

[poli3]

34. Talking about 2022

and why you left FL out, but placed NC there.

[StevieM]

22. I don't think we can win Texas and I don't think we can win back the Senate before 2020.

But Manchin looked strong in polls taken right after the 2016 election. I think he can win. Heitkamp is probably the most vulnerable, followed by Donnelly. Tester, I think, is stronger than people realize. McCaskill might do OK, given that Jason Kander would have won had it not been for the FBI intervention. And I think his defeat might make some voters more likely to keep her, in part to have some balance.

I think Jeff Flake could run into challenges in his primary. If he loses then I think that seat is very winnable, since Arizona was absolutely flipped in the 2016 GE by Comey's actions. And I think Nevada looks very good.

I would be surprised if we lost more than a couple of seats, which would put the Senate at 54-46 GOP. It is conceivable that we could hold steady at 52-48 GOP.

In 2020 I think we can defeat Joni Ernst in Iowa, David Perdue in Georgia, Thom Tillis in North Carolina, Cory Gardner in Colorado, and pick up a seat in Maine if Collins retires--and maybe even if she doesn't.

A strong victory over Trump should carry in those 5 states. So even if we drop to 54-46 GOP in 2018 we could still be at 51-49 Dems by 2020.

I see your point about 2022 though. That will be the year that we are in good position to win seats in PA, WI, and NC, all of which we would have won (along with MO) had it not been for the FBI rigging the election. We might also pick up seats in OH, FL, AZ and IA.

[Alice11111]

42. McCaskill already said she is in trouble. Last election, Repubs

targeted her. She would have lost for sure, but she got a break with the "legitimate rape," comment by her opponent. Then, the Repubs dropped the campaign against her, as it was a waist of money. I like her, but re-election in 50-50 at best IMHO.
Jason Kander of Mo (the former vet who put together the automatic rifle on tv, and then stated that people on the streets did not need those weapons) was doing well until the last few weeks when the Repubs slammed him with $$$ ads, and the Dems wouldnt cough up.

[PatsFan87]

27. Coming from a Mainer, it is going to be VERY tough to beat Susan Collins.

The brand she has built is that of a moderate who reaches across the aisle to get things done. People up here basically view her as an independent and we love our independents (our other senator is an independent). Unseating her will require:

1) The DNC prioritizing this race and getting grassroots organizing up here.

2) Attacking Susan right away to chip away at her "moderate" brand. A lot of people are angry up here because she was the deciding vote to let Betsy DeVos pass committee and get a full senate vote.

3) Recruiting a STRONG candidate. Susan's last challenger was a dud and we don't have a very inspiring bench of candidates on the Dem side (a large reason why we have blowhard Lepage as our governor is weak Dem challengers). A progressive message works here. Bernie kicked Hillary's behind all across the state. The ideal candidate is Troy Jackson. He's the Senate minority leader, a vocal Bernie supporter, and a former logger from northern Maine who can speak to the more rural second district while running up the numbers in the more Democratic first district. Getting Bernie up here to speak with him in 2020, a presidential election year, would deliver Jackson the millennial vote as well. If he isn't the candidate, this is probably Susan's to lose.

She's not the most inspiring speaker either. She spoke at my high school graduation and I wanted to light myself on fire. She has a way of droning on and on and people tend to tune out. She can be defeated but people tend to underestimate how hard it will be because Maine usually votes blue for president.

[StevieM]

32. But you are assuming that Collins will be the GOP nominee.

It is possible that she won't run for re-election. And it is also possible that she is defeated in a Republican primary. The GOP has forgotten all about the Christine O'Donnell debacle. And they are convinced that the polls are fake. So they will do what they want and convince themselves that they will win.

[PatsFan87]

38. I highly doubt she runs for governor.

After two terms of Lepage the chances of the state electing another Republican for governor are slim. And if ranked choice voting is still in place by then, that makes a Republican's odds even more slim. Giving up the power she's gained in the senate to chase a seat that is leaning/likely D would be stupid.

And I don't see her retiring from the Senate either. Along with other moderates like Murkowski and at times McCain/Paul, she has a lot of power as a middleman. No legitimate Republican with a snowballs chance in hell of winning would primary her. She's the party's best shot to keep the seat and the GOP knows that. I disagree with Collins on a lot but she's no idiot like Christine O'Donnell.

[StevieM]

41. I wasn't comparing her to Christine O'Donnell I was comparing her to Mike Castle, the Republican who

Last edited Sun Feb 19, 2017, 08:29 PM - Edit history (1)

Christine O'Donnell defeated. I was suggesting that the GOP might nominate someone like O'Donnell instead of her.

But I agree that it won't be easy to beat her. I think Jeff Flake is much more likely to be defeated in a primary.

I am hoping that Collins gets so sick of Washington that she will just retire.

[PatsFan87]

46. Ah! I misread that. My apologies. You never know with the crazy GOP.

But after two disastrous terms of a far right governor, I don't see someone more conservative than Collins primarying her. The climate in this state isn't favorable for that right now. Who knows though. Lepage leaves in 2018 and will probably challenge Angus King but King should be able to destroy him. I almost look forward to it.

[StevieM]

48. No problem. Apparently I also wasn't paying close attention. I wrote "Snowe" rather than Collins.

I will have to edit my post.

Obviously Olympia Snowe retired a few years ago.

[La Lioness Priyanka]

17. 2020 and 2022 are far into the future

we really can't see what lies that far ahead.

[Fast Walker 52]

18. We and the freaking planet cannot WAIT THAT LONG!!!!

Come on people.

[Alice11111]

44. The fed courts will be stacked for the next 30+ years by then

No abortion. War with Mexico. War Iran. Maybe China.
Public schools that just babysit, which they already do in some places. Mass emigration from US, and I may be one to go. Shooting from helicopters in national parks of bears, wolves...those liberal hikers could be in the way. Jailing journalists and demonstrators. Well, we all know the agenda, but it keeps getting worse as his paranoia increases.

[Fast Walker 52]

47. maybe... I'm still optimistic about the Dem backlash against Trump

[poli3]

20. Why are you including NC, but leaving out FL?

Performance-wise, Burr was closest to Rubio. If NC is winnable so is FL, otherwise neither are.

[nkpolitics1212]

25. Rubio-FL won by a slightly wider margin than Burr-NC.

In FL- Gwen Graham -D assuming she gets elected FL Governor in 2018 could defeat Rubio.

[poli3]

28. yeah, a 1% margin

Mostly due to the dems abandoning murphy, money that was supposed to be spent for murphy was distributed to other regions, had the original dem gameplan gone into effect in FL and the dems had effectively supported murphy, he would've done equal to Burr, and murphy would've done equal to ross.

[sarisataka]

24. If my enthusiasm seems lacking

It is due to the fact recent prognostications of sweeping victories have not been especially accurate.

Instead I will repeat what I said back in September when I was told a Hillary victory and control of at least one, and possibly both houses of Congress were quote in the bag unquote.

- Never assume victory

[MFM008]

26. Let's work on sooner

Than 5 years. Republicans can do too much damage in 5 years they need to be stopped as soon as possible.

[chillfactor]

29. I am old....

I will be dead before that happens.

[Initech]

33. This assumes that we still have a functioning America in 2022.

I hope the republicans don't kill it before then.

[bluescribbler]

35. We have to wait that long???

Damn.

[CK_John]

36. More like 2032. nt

[J_William_Ryan]

37. 2022 is too late.

The Supreme Court will be lost by then, controlled by conservative ideologues and reactionaries – at which point it will make little difference whether Democrats control the Senate, or WH, for that matter.

[FreeStateDemocrat]

45. Total FUBAR way before then and it will be way too late to undo the damage.