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femmedem

(8,201 posts)
Mon Feb 20, 2017, 07:53 AM Feb 2017

California facing possibility of catastrophic flooding today and tomorrow

From meteorologist/climate journalist Eric Holthaus:

"If you have family or friends in northern or central California—please get in touch with them on Monday morning, or sooner. The seriousness of the potential flood that is inbound on Monday and Tuesday cannot be overstated.

I just got off the phone with a NWS meteorologist at the Sacramento office, Bill Rasch, and he said they are increasingly concerned about the potential for the incoming atmospheric river to cause substantial or even historic flooding with little immediate notice. They are urging people to prepare to evacuate with less than 15 minutes warning, and expecting flooding in places that haven't flooded in "many years." As far as the this sort of dire wording, they have tentative plans to "take it up a notch" tomorrow—this is the real deal, a situation that likely hasn't hit California in decades, or maybe much longer.

Here's what is causing so much concern: If the atmospheric river stalls, there could be up to a foot of rain in a span of about 36 hours over places that are already flooding—that's a rainfall intensity that isn't expected more than once a century, or even more rare. At risk is the vast network of levees and dams and diversions that literally make modern California what it is, and protect hundreds of thousands of people. If this system is compromised, the scale of disaster would be among the worst in U.S. history. A dire 2011 New York Times magazine piece outlines the scenario. It's not pretty.

The implications of this flood would be huge: If the levee system is breached, Sacramento could have 30ft of flooding, and much of the state's water delivery system could be paralyzed by an influx of saltwater, including much of southern California. Two-thirds of people in the state could lose fresh water. That's not to mention the potential loss of life. Of course, this is not a given based on the latest weather forecast—but the fact that it can't be ruled out should cause everyone in the region to pay close attention."

http://tinyletter.com/sciencebyericholthaus/letters/today-in-weather-climate-california-flood-emergency-edition-monday-february-20th


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femmedem

(8,201 posts)
6. Hoping the atmospheric river doesn't stall and it isn't as bad as it could be.
Mon Feb 20, 2017, 09:15 AM
Feb 2017

But if I were in a low-lying area in northern California I wouldn't be waiting for an evacuation order.

One bit of good news: Holthaus may be wrong about the threat to the water supply. Christina Toms, a wetlands scientist working for California's EPA, has replied to Holthaus's tweet, saying that even if levees go, there isn't much risk of mixing of fresh and salty water.

femmedem

(8,201 posts)
13. During the summer, it would have come from the Suisan bay/western Delta
Mon Feb 20, 2017, 11:02 AM
Feb 2017

but saline levels fluctuate seasonally. Or at least that's my understanding. I have never been to the West Coast, so I hope I have the geography correct.

https://mavensnotebook.com/dpg/KeyConcepts/Salinity.html

samnsara

(17,616 posts)
7. animals have been dealing with natural disaters for eons...
Mon Feb 20, 2017, 09:26 AM
Feb 2017

..and they fare better than us. Just as long as they aren't chained up...

Kablooie

(18,625 posts)
4. This happened before in 1862 and it could destroy much of California farm lands.
Mon Feb 20, 2017, 08:42 AM
Feb 2017

The entire Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys were inundated. An area about 300 miles (480 km) long, averaging 20 miles (32 km) in width,[15] and covering 5,000 to 6,000 square miles (13,000 to 16,000 km2) was under water.[9] The water flooding the Central Valley reached depths up to 30 feet (9.1 m), completely submerging telegraph poles that had just been installed between San Francisco and New York. Transportation, mail, and communications across the state were disrupted for a month.[16] Water covered portions of the valley from December 1861, through the spring, and into the summer of 1862.[9]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Flood_of_1862
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It's ironic and depressing that Trumps first major crisis to manage could be California needing federal assistance.

 

smirkymonkey

(63,221 posts)
12. I agree, that would be nothing but spite and completely unconscionable.
Mon Feb 20, 2017, 10:54 AM
Feb 2017

I can't believe that a head of state would be so petty, but I put nothing past this vindictive, repulsive little tyrant.

jpak

(41,757 posts)
15. K&R - get ready now
Mon Feb 20, 2017, 11:23 AM
Feb 2017

Fill you gas tanks
Charge your phones - text during disaster events
Get food and water (and pet supplies)
Get a radio, flashlight and batteries
Raingear
Clothes for 7 days

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