Why Polls Differ on Trump's Popularity

[DonViejo]

February 20, 2017By Taegan Goddard

Nate Silver: “Here’s what we can say for sure: It’s unprecedented for a president to face so much opposition from the electorate so soon. Recent polls show that anywhere between 43 and 56 percent of Americans disapprove of President Trump’s job performance. Even if you take the low end of that range, Trump’s numbers are much worse than any past president a month into his term.”

“But beyond that, there’s a lot of seeming disagreement in the polls about exactly how unpopular Trump is — and even whether his disapproval rating exceeds his approval rating at all.”

“What’s the real story? The differences between the polls aren’t random, or at least they don’t appear to be based on the relatively limited amount of data we have so far. Instead, Trump’s approval ratings are systematically higher in polls of voters — either registered voters or likely voters — than they are in polls of all adults. And they’re systematically higher in polls conducted online or by automated script than they are in polls conducted by live-telephone interviewers.”

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https://politicalwire.com/2017/02/20/polls-differ-trumps-popularity/

[GusBob]

1. someone on DU was quick to point this out last week

voters vs non-voters

Makes sense nobody wants to admit their horse is a loser

If we could ease this sense of politics as a spectator sport ( principle before party) it would be a good thing

[Adrahil]

4. The plain fact is...

that many people who would support our candidates don't bother to vote. It pisses me off.

[KittyWampus]

6. and far too many were prevented from voting.

[Adrahil]

7. Yes....

I fear we are nearing a point where apathy and suppression is dooming us to control by a rabid minority.

[uponit7771]

8. This pisses me off more....

[LAS14]

10. Right, but what do you think of my idea in response #9?

[NRaleighLiberal]

2. nothing really surprising there.

[appleannie1943]

3. You can vote endlessly on a lot of online polls and every one of your votes tally. So

how can you get anything even close to the truth? I tend to believe phone polls to be more reliable.

[Wounded Bear]

5. There are ways to conduct better online polls...

not many groups bother to take the expense to do so.

So yeah, ignoring on-line polls is probably a good thing right now.

[LAS14]

9. OK, so what are the problems with this interpretation?

In this election there were significant numbers of new voters on the right (part of the reason polls of "likely voters" were wrong. Now those people are counted as voters. In the next election we should benefit from a rise in left-leaning voters. Presumably some of the people who are showing up at town halls and the Women's March, etc., are people who sat out the last election but won't in 2018.

Pipe dreams? A real possibility? Something to hang our hats on?