nice TPM analysis - "How Unpopular is Trump"?

[NRaleighLiberal]

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/how-unpopular-is-trump

In the last couple weeks I've written a number of not unhappy posts on President Trump's abysmal approval rating and its downward trend. Here's something slightly different.

As you can see, we have a somewhat different story here.

In absolute terms, the numbers are still quite bad - net -9 approval. But the trend is different. This comes along with two recent articles by two pretty sharp guys - Nate Silver and Ed Kilgore - arguing that while Trump is unpopular, he's not quite as unpopular as many Democrats think.

There's a good point to be made here, even apart from a few good days for Trump in the Gallup tracking poll. Let me try to briefly summarize them.

There's not just the Gallup poll or Pew or Quinnipiac, each of which show Trump in really bad shape. There are a bunch of other polls and they actually differ significantly. This seems to be for three basic reasons: quality, methodology and population.

snip. important to read it all.

[hlthe2b]

1. Geez.. Josh is going to send me off a cliff...

[geek tragedy]

2. it's all about the policy outcomes, which in the grand scheme makes sense.

If the economy tanks, or the health care system starts melting down, then people will turn on him.

But him being a crazy, corrupt a-hole is already baked into the equation.

[renate]

3. it's easy to forget that (at least, it's easy for me)

Every time he does something that makes us go , his supporters go .

It's like the ads using his own words that seemed super effective during the campaign. They were horrifying to us but to his base they were paens of praise.