just curious to see what you folks think the chances

[okieinpain]

are that the trump tax plan will create a nice economic bubble that will make every thing look great for 2020. if they cut corporate taxes to 15% there will probably be a big explosion of activity but the deficit will explode unless you cut or eliminate programs.

[Warpy]

1. The deficit will explode, corporate profits will increase and be eaten up

by executive pay and bonuses instead of distributed to shareholders, their share will likely go down as demand continues to fall due to low wages, and the stock market will continue to boom, which is all the plutocrats really care about.

You bet they'll cry about the deficit in 2 years and try to cut programs. They'll have the old folks in this country in full rebellion and that is one voting bloc they should be very leery of pissing off.

[yallerdawg]

2. If they close the loopholes...

and these corporations and companies actually had to pay 15%, this won't help anything at all.

You can bet closing loopholes will be the Democrat's requirement, or it will just be another tax giveaway! No trickle, as we know.

[jmg257]

13. Last interview I saw about it, that was exactly it - less tax, supposed to close the loopholes.

So no real net gain/loss.

But then again, the guy also said the plan would be released about 2 weeks ago.

[unblock]

3. a financial bubble, not an economic bubble.

it will spur overseas money coming back to big u.s. companies, who have nothing profitable to do with it, so they will just dividend it out and/or buy back shares.

this will mean the stock market will jump.

this will similarly cause the rest of the world to slow down a bit as investment money is pulled out of emerging markets. note that the gains here are merely financial, not economic, because we don't need the extra investment money; whereas, the loss overseas is truly economic, because investment money there is actually put to good use.

any import tax or other protectionist measure will make any global slowdown worse.


the slowdown overseas will mean fewer buyers for american exports, which which means an economic slowdown here.

financial bubble while sowing the seeds of an economic slowdown is not a good recipe.

[okieinpain]

5. interesting. this is one of the things i fear most about

trump is this whole tax reduction deal. if he gets another 4 years and there is not counter-balance to him we will be in real trouble.

[unblock]

8. it's extremely difficult to see him not presiding over a recession.

which makes re-election difficult. possible, but difficult.

we've had 8 years of economic expansion, the longest run ever. it's hard to see it lasting much longer, certainly not a full 4 more years.

[okieinpain]

10. i see the recession but i'm just fearful

it won't come about until after the 2020 election. that scares the crap out of me that he will still be in charge when things hit the fan and he has no one to blame. what will be his distraction, will his supporters own up that his crap didn't work and will they find a new boogie man.

[kentuck]

4. They don't really want to cut spending .

That helps to drive up the deficits and the total on the interest payment on the national debt. Banks like that, I would think.

[okieinpain]

6. so you think all of the privatizing talk is just talk n/t.

[unblock]

9. privatizing doesn't save money! the "savings" and then some become profit for the private company.

the services they provide get cut, but the federal government generally actually pays more when things are privatized.

it's all a big scam.

[okieinpain]

12. exactly but does it get him past 2020. n/t.

[haele]

7. No, any "expolosion of activity" that could result in jobs is offset by cuts to education/training

The sad fact of the matter is that even manufacturing companies admit that the new jobs that pay decent wages will require training that most of the "working class" Drumpf voters will be unable to afford without an investment in higher skills/technical training.

A tax break or reduction in regulations is not going to cause any business to go out and hire more people. Never has, never will.
And the amount of businesses that will "come back" or start up because it's become somewhat cheaper so the opportunity costs are lower to be in the U.S. and the supply chain might offset U.S. labor costs will still not be hiring a lot of unskilled or semi-skilled labor.
Every new manufacturing business the tax cuts will attract may employ an additional 50 - 200 people nation-wide - max.
Especially since we don't have single payer or a comprehensive subsidized social net in this country, as they do in most other industrial countries.
Technology will be handling most of the grunt work, and any semi-regular facilities maintenance will be sub-contracted out to companies that do piecemeal "just in time" type work, so XYZ, LLC is not going to hire janitorial or administrative staff to "sit around" half the day and wait to do their job as needed.

Businesses hire as many people as they need, and we're already pretty much at max available U.S. employment in manufacturing and service jobs.
The only jobs currently going without full employment are either low-paying grunt work - that Americans "don't want to do" (i.e., slaughterhouse and heavy cleaning jobs) or specialized technical jobs that can only be learned through a subsidized trade school as they have overseas, or by access to a good JR. college with a trades program or a for-profit trade school - which in the areas of low unemployment is typically available only by some $50K "online university" - and that's only if you can get approved for a FASFA loan.

Going into business yourself - 70% of those types of businesses don't make any sort of sustainable revenue for at least two/three years, and if you hired anyone to help you with your business, they're not going to be able to make a living wage themselves for a while.
The rust-belt working class are screwed if they think we can go back to the days of starting an after-school union apprenticeship or farm hand/resource extraction job when you're a Jr. in High School and make it to some sort of management position by the time you're in your 30's and 40's, like "Daddy and Grand-daddy did".

The post-war manufacturing boom where 2-3 thousand employees could work their entire lifetime on a factory floor, buy a house off those wages and retire with a pension is long over - and those jobs aren't coming back.

Haele

[okieinpain]

11. well people are saying that is one of the reasons for voting for trump

im afraid that it will cause a small bump in the economy that gets him past 2020 and then all of the crap will surface and we will be left with a desperate trump. it has happened in oklahoma just like that, now the good ole republican governor is taxing everything she can think of and not one person has screamed about it like the would if a dem had done it.