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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsFiveThirtyEight: Liberals Would Be Foolish To Primary Joe Manchin
Eight years ago, Rep. Mike Castle of Delaware was headed to the U.S. Senate. Joe Biden had left his seat open upon ascending to the vice presidency, and Castle, a Republican, appeared to be in the perfect position to take it. Delaware is a solidly blue state, but Castle had built a moderate record, was well-liked and held an early lead over his three potential Democratic opponents. His only problem: That moderate record cut both ways. By September 2010, the tea party wave was cresting and Castle got swallowed up. He lost the Republican primary to tea partier Christine ODonnell. Two months later, ODonnell lost the general election by 17 points, and Republicans failed to win a majority in the Senate.
The Castle-ODonnell primary should be a cautionary tale for Democrats now. Some liberal activists want to challenge Sen. Joe Manchin in West Virginias 2018 Democratic primary. They complain that hes too conservative and that he voted to confirm most of President Trumps Cabinet officials. Manchin is probably safe Democratic voters in West Virginia are pretty conservative.1 But the impulse to challenge Manchin from the left could be dangerous for Democrats. Manchin, even though he often votes with the GOP, is incredibly valuable to the Democratic Party compared to any plausible alternative.
West Virginia leans heavily Republican on the federal level. Trump won it by 42 percentage points in 2016. Republican Shelley Moore Capito easily dispatched by 28 percentage points Democrat Natalie Tennant in the 2014 U.S. Senate race the last Senate race in West Virginia with a Democrat not named Manchin on the ballot. Tennant, who was the secretary of state, was deemed a top recruit. But she performed about as youd expect for a non-incumbent Democrat running for the Senate from West Virginia.
All told, the chance of a non-incumbent Democrat winning a Senate seat in West Virginia in 2018 is probably somewhere between 1 percent and 2 percent. Thats based on a logit regression of all Senate races with no incumbent running since Manchin was first elected in 2010. The model looks at whether the Democrat2 won or lost as predicted by how Democratic- or Republican-leaning the state was in the previous two presidential elections3 compared to the nation as a whole. You can tweak this analysis (e.g., looking at all open seats since 1992 or all seats, not just those without an incumbent running) or even run a different type of model, but they all would show that a generic Democrat would be a heavy underdog in West Virginia.
more: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/liberals-would-be-foolish-to-target-joe-manchin/
riversedge
(70,182 posts)OKNancy
(41,832 posts)"the chance of a non-incumbent Democrat winning a Senate seat in West Virginia in 2018 is probably somewhere between 1 percent and 2 percent."
I bet the liberals who spout this bullshit live in safe blue states.
I can't stand the guy, but he does vote with the Democrats 77% of the time. Better than zero!!!
I'd trade him for Inhofe any day.
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)A bluedog Democrat beats any republican.
BannonsLiver
(16,352 posts)One could make the case that Manchin isn't worth a nickel of DSCC money. I would tend to agree with that assessment. He's probably going to lose the seat anyway.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)Remember Dumb and Dumber?
When told he only had a one in a million chance Carey's character yelled "so I have a chance".
Between 1 & 2% is generous.
Anyone who runs against him in the primary is a Republican in disguise.
Maru Kitteh
(28,333 posts)for a reason. So do the Koch brothers. They win, we lose.
Staph
(6,251 posts)If we primary Joe Manchin, we'll have two Republican senators from West Virginia.
Manchin is holding a healthcare townhall in Huntington this Friday. I'm going, along with a large portion of Tri-State Indivisible and the West Virginia chapter of the Women's March. We are going to, respectfully, hold his feet to the fire on some of his recent votes, as well as loudly praise him for the good stuff he has done, like opposing and denouncing Betsy DeVos. We will remind him that he is a Democrat, and we expect him to act like one.
So . . . the rest of you, from reliably blue states . . . lay off. We got this!
Blanks
(4,835 posts)Not too many years ago.
Our representatives have to weigh their decisions carefully. Devos was gonna get in anyway, not enough republicans opposed her. The point was made.
I say these representatives from red states need to do these things some times.
Here, if they aren't toting a gun in a commercial, they're not gonna win. We need them on our side of the isle. I think primarying them is a mistake.
Blue_Tires
(55,445 posts)Y'all want to primary someone, primary Goddamned Tulsi Gabbard who is in a safe blue seat and her sins are much more egregious...
TrollBuster9090
(5,954 posts)That's the percentage of West Virginia families that are on Medicaid.
Manchin can stay, as long as he fights like hell against the Republican healthcare bill. Even REPUBLICANS are starting to run away from it. If Tom Cotton is running away from it in Arkansas, Joe Manchin would be an absolute IDIOT to think he can gain 'centrist' votes by supporting any part of it just because he's in a state that was carried by Trump. I guarantee that by 2018 Trump is going to be a STONE around the neck of any politician who did anything that even REMOTELY supports him.
My opinion, for what it's worth, is that Manchin is in a good position to be re-elected IF he opposes GOP healthcare reforms in the loudest possible way. If he supports it, or even makes noises about supporting parts of it he's a dead duck.
If he strenuously opposes GOP healthcare policy, he'll probably win big. In which case, Senate Democrats can afford to let one Red State Senator dither about Supreme Court nominations and gun control; as long as he opposes GOP 'Wealthcare' reforms.