The CBO's other bombshell: the Affordable Care Act isn't imploding

[applegrove]

The CBO's other bombshell: the Affordable Care Act isn't imploding

by Matthew Yglesias at Vox

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/3/14/14921594/obamacare-implosion-ahca

SNIP.............


Beyond its eye-popping findings on higher premiums and large-scale coverage loss, the Congressional Budget Office’s official score of the American Health Care Act also quietly demolishes the central publicly stated rationale for repealing the Affordable Care Act. The key passage is a somewhat jargon-full sentence on the second page of the report that says, “In CBO and JCT’s assessment, however, the nongroup market would probably be stable in most areas under either current law or the legislation.”

...........

If that cycle were to simply continue unabated, the law really might implode. But CBO says that’s not what’s happening:

Under current law, most subsidized enrollees purchasing health insurance coverage in the nongroup market are largely insulated from increases in premiums because their out-of-pocket payments for premiums are based on a percentage of their income; the government pays the difference. The subsidies to purchase coverage combined with the penalties paid by uninsured people stemming from the individual mandate are anticipated to cause sufficient demand for insurance by people with low health care expenditures for the market to be stable.

Translating from wonk-ese, the subsidies offered to lower-income people under ACA are scaled both to income and to the local price of health insurance. Which means that for heavily subsidized customers, the higher premiums don’t drive people out of the marketplace. And there are enough young and healthy people who qualify for generous subsidies to ensure a stable long-term risk pool.

..............SNIP

[Achilleaze]

1. The Republicans have been systematically lying about this

You really cannot trust a damn thing they say. The pattern of flies is systematic and frankly UnAmerican. The American people deserve the truth, and the Republicans just do not deliver

[wendyb]

2. every day

Democrats need to say this every day and to provide examples..many, many examples of people who have been helped, who have survived b/c of Obamacare.

[Aristus]

9. That's for sure...

Welcome to DU!

[Delmette2.0]

28. The Democrats in the House and the Senate..

Should be hammering away at every half truth the Repugs say about ACA.

[Mr. Evil]

5. They systematically lie about everything.

That's the only thing they're good at.

[lagomorph777]

33. I disagree.

They're not very good at it. Practice doesn't seem to make any progress for them.

[Cosmocat]

7. They are hysterical jackasses

nm

[iluvtennis]

14. +1000 nt

[uponit7771]

16. They lie when the truth serves then better

[warmfeet]

3. I agree.

The ACA is not imploding. Still, single payer would be nice. I think this is our future.

[sheshe2]

4. Wait what?!

The Goppers would never eeva lie to the American public.

[superpatriotman]

6. This needs to be our talking point

And repeated ad nauseum into every live mic.

[displacedtexan]

10. Aetna'a CEO started that "death spiral" lie every Repuke is repeating.

In fact, CNN called him out on it. It was all about his merger with Humana being threatened by a judge. People's lives don't matter to him.

http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/24/investing/aetna-obamacare-humana-merger/

[JDC]

8. R's love the term Death Spiral

They consistently lie publicly and are proven wrong on poficy at every turn. When they do get in office, they f things up into oblivion and Democrats have to come long and fix it. "Real America" Forgets, washes, repeats. Why anyone believes anything these guys say is beyond me.

[Ilsa]

11. Fix the risk corridors. Talk the other states into expanding medicaid. NT

[Sunlei]

24. good points AND every Doctor should be allowed to take a persons insurance. only 4 or 5 Corps?

Think large for 'the peoples' best interests not the 4 or 5 Insurance Corps.

[Ilsa]

29. More ins is better if they are all quality companies.

Texas has/had? a little known secret of a special class of people who could get coverage of some sort if they had been defrauded by their crappy insurance company. Regulation is critical.

[Sunlei]

30. Unfortunately America only has 4? giant Insurance Corporations & they're 'for profit' corporations.

The Insurance Corps (and Republicans) don't want or like ACA because it does regulate the Corporation, a little. (not enough)

[Ccarmona]

12. If Anything Knocked the Legs Out of Obamacare It Was This

https://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/10/us/politics/marco-rubio-obamacare-affordable-care-act.html?_r=0|

WASHINGTON — A little-noticed health care provision slipped into a giant spending law last year has tangled up the Obama administration, sent tremors through health insurance markets and rattled confidence in the durability of President Obama’s signature health law.

The attack stems from two years of effort by Senator Marco Rubio and others in Congress to undermine a key financing mechanism in the law. So for all the Republican talk about dismantling the Affordable Care Act, one Republican presidential hopeful has actually done something toward achieving that goal.

Mr. Rubio’s efforts against the so-called risk corridor provision of the health law have hardly risen to the forefront of the race for the Republican presidential nomination, but his plan limiting how much the government can spend to protect insurance companies against financial losses has shown the effectiveness of quiet legislative sabotage.

[Sunlei]

25. Republicans & their Insurance Corps pretend that a million a year to treat cancer breaks THEIR bank

[Liberal In Texas]

44. Yes. Yes. Yes.

They break it and then say, "see it isn't working."

[Honeycombe8]

13. The "implosion" reference refers to ins. cos. withdrawing...

and providers, too. It doesn't refer to people getting subsidized plans.

In many areas there are only a couple of insurers selling plans, and in some areas, only one. In some areas only HMOs are sold, no PPOs.

The ins. cos. are withdrawing from entire areas, and narrowing their provider lists and drug lists intentionally, to contain costs.

The subsidies part of the program is working well for those who qualify. It's the other parts that aren't working.

Does anyone here have an individual plan under the ACA? Just curious. I do. I am seeing these things...the closing of the ability to actually use the insurance policies in various areas.

Ryan claims the people are gaming the system. IMO, it's the ins. cos. that are gaming the system.

[CottonBear]

15. I can only use my ACA insurance at one of the two hospitals in my city.

I live in a city that is the metro-area/economic hub for a 10 county area in a red state.

Both hospitals are top-rated, large, full-service hospitals.

I cannot use any services at one of the hospitals and its associated clinics. 🙁

I have a note in my wallet: In an emergency, DO NOT take me to ________ Hospital! They don't accept my insurance!

The university health center does not take my insurance either. 🙁

I used to have dental and vision care through my ACA insurance, however, no one in a my county or in any adjacent county accepts the insurance. So, I paid for useless insurance for an entire year.


I am grateful to have insurance, but it is basically only for emergency use.

[Honeycombe8]

20. I feel your pain.

I'm grateful for it, but I can't really use it.

I used it once since 2014. I went to an urgent care place for a dog bite. That was a decent enough policy, I guess, since United Health Care paid their part of it. But United Health Care then withdrew from the state. So Blue Cross is the only decent one left, and Blue Cross is horrible. There is Vantage Co., but it's a joke.

Very few doctors will take these policies, I think. I guess because they pay so little. Plus the ins. cos. intentionally keep the provider and drug lists short, so they don't have to pay a lot of claims.

Blue Cross has been sued by insureds over their failure to provide providers in areas. The govt is supposed to have something in place to prevent this, but it doesn't work, I guess.

[CottonBear]

43. I'm glad you've been heathy & lucky

so that you only had to use it for the dog bite.
Dog bites can be nasty. I hope that you healed OK.

Single payer is the answer. I just don't know if we'll get it in my lifetime.

Take care. We're in the same boat. I'll be in a world of trouble if/when I loose my ACA insurance.

[Sunlei]

27. I was told for emergency your insurance plan covers(pays for) any emergency clinic.

Once you're stable they'll transfer you to your hospital for treatment, surgery.

[CottonBear]

42. That's good to know! Thanks!

I'll follow up on that with my insurance company.

[uponit7771]

17. They didn't qualify the statement as such and made it sound like the whole thing was going under

[Honeycombe8]

21. I think they've been clear. I've seen Trump railing about this...

you know how he shouts on his podium about things. I heard him shouting about the implosion thing...people having only one insurance company that sells in their area, rising premium costs, not being able to afford the high deductibles or find a doctor, insurance companies leaving the ACA entirely.

Trump is disgusting, for sure. But he was clear on those points (someone must have told him what the complaints by people were, since he wouldn't know personally).

Ryan then made statements about the same things. Those are the complaints of people.

This is one of those things that I thought the Democratic politicians didn't address, and that hurt them in the election. Not that they hadn't fixed the ACA, but that they didn't acknowledge the problems and at least work on them. (I was listening for that during the campaign, and I don't recall that Clinton addressed this specifically, but it's possible she made references to improving it...I don't remember that though.)

The "replacement" will be worse, though. At least with the ACA millions of people had something. Under this new Ryan plan, millions more won't have anything. Including me.

Trump was lying when he said he'd provide "insurance for everybody!" It's hard to believe that anyone was stupid enough to believe him.

[Sunlei]

26. The Insurance Corporations limit a persons coverage to a tiny area near their zipcode.

It sucks but better than no insurance at all.

[Honeycombe8]

34. That's true. It sucks. But better than nothing. It's the COST...

that' astounding! More than twice I paid for an individual plan tailored to my needs, for LESS coverage in some ways, higher deductible, and almost no providers who will take it. The whole system we have, with ins. cos. sucking us dry, is SICK.

[Volaris]

18. Republicans were dumb enough to put the difference right there in the name.

American Health care--it's your patriotic duty to keep rich 'people' and their boards of directors rich, even if it kills you.

Affordable healthCare Act: how unAmerican.
American Health care Act: how unAffordable.

If we're not smart enough find a way to use their own stupidity against them, then we damnwell deserve the fascism that's coming, because THIS is low-hanging fruit.

[Lucinda]

19. KNR

[Sunlei]

22. I'm on 3rd year of healthcareDOTgov.-decent blue cross insurance & I can afford it, I'm happy.

Sucked before ACA, Republicans want to go back to the old HIGHER CORP PROFIT days.

Fuck you Republicans for kissing INSURANCE CORPORATION ASS. Corporation still makes a FABULOUS profit as 'middlemen' between people and their Doctor/medicines.

[Honeycombe8]

35. I had BC. Couldn't find a dr to take it for months. It was an HMO.

I couldn't afford the PPOs, if there even was one. Horrible insurance. I haven't been to the dr since I started getting Obamacare in 2014, except once to an urgent care place for a dog bite. In effect, I lost my insurance in 2014.

I now live somewhere else. It's even more expensive now. There are no PPOs here. BC is the only viable co. selling it here, United Healthcare having pulled out of the state and maybe the entire individual insurance market. There are no choices in plans...they are all the same coverage. You just pay for what you can afford and hope you can pay for the deductible and co-insurance, and that some dr. will take it.

[Sunlei]

38. I noticed Humana pulled out of the DOTgov website and spammed TV ads for their insurance instead.

The Humana Corporation didn't want the oversight on (exchange)health care.gov but they sure advertised their insurance plans everywhere else with the ACA act benefits (subsidies, free exams)

This year I knew Republicans would again attack obamacare, like they have voted 120 times past 7 years to get rid of it.

Three Basic insurance plans on exchange were $75 a month. I went with the $400 a month plan with no out of pocket and low deductible. still limited to one primary care Doctor who acts like the Insurance corporations portal guard to the actual specialist tests.

I plan to have every quality screening(MRI, ultrasounds) known to exist this year, in case republicans manage to destroy my access to affordable health care.

[Honeycombe8]

39. Yes....get exams this year!

I am going to try.

I am one of the ones who will lose my insurance under the Republican plan (as it looks now).

I am over 60, and although healthy as a horse, my premiums are super high because they charge all seniors super high premiums. My policy is over $900 a month, for a decent HMO. The cheapest, for a bad HMO, is still over $800, though. I get a subsidy, though. Otherwise, I couldn't afford it.

So w/o a subsidy up front, I will be w/o insurance. I need to call around and see if I can find a dr who will take this ins. so I can get an exam at no cost, while I can. I also injured my wrist and it's not getting better, so hope to have that looked at.

I quit calling around looking for doctors because I just got so discouraged and upset. I couldn't take it, any more. The repeated rejections and the way they spoke sometimes, to make me feel like a scumbag. "Oh, we don't take THAT."

But Obamacare was better than what is coming down the pike.

We need to get what other counties have: universal coverage, with an option for private care. That's what most of the countries with successful healthcare have, I think.

[Sunlei]

41. I'm fortunate to live near Houston, hundreds of hospitals/Doctors. Insurance is easier to use here.

I feel your pain, I understand what you mean about other countries with universal coverage. If you have an accident or god forbid get cancer you don't have to worry if 'insurance' will cover.

I suggest going to Humana website & they should have a list of Doctors who will take the insurance.

If that doesn't work try https://www.healthcare.gov/

That's the official Obamacare exchange, they're great help even by phone. They have all Humana information. The first year I got my insurance it was through Humana and I use that website for my current Blue Cross as well.

Here is their "contact us page" with phone numbers and other info on finding Doctors.

https://www.healthcare.gov/contact-us/

[dlk]

23. ACA "Implosion" Was Always Spin

When it comes to Republican redistribution of American wealth upward to the very richest, there is no shortage of their spin and outright lies. Unfortunately, our corporate-owned media has been all too often complicit with the dissemination of these lies. Since the ACA has saved thousands upon thousands of American lives, as well as improved the lives of countless millions, the Republicans, who put party and winning above all else, had to go overboard with their "implosion" lies. Thankfully, the CBO has published the truth. Now, let's hope the media will disseminate it with the save fervor they usually save for Republican spin.

[Poor_Dog]

31. Good experience here

I don't understand why the republicans, or the media, are constantly representing the ACA as a terrible burden to the American people. I never see a good story about it, or people praising it's benefits. My wife and I've been on it for 3 years now, with nothing but good things to say. It's certainly been a lifesaver for me and my family. Without... we would be living in a mud hut somewhere. I sure hope we don't lose it, maybe someone will eventually come to their senses and quit intentionally trying to toss the baby out.

Regards,
Jack

[NRaleighLiberal]

32. I agree - and welcome to DU! ACA good Bad for the GOP so it is trash it all the time for them.

Then again, since they lack the empathy gene, it's understandable (and reprehensible!)

[gopiscrap]

37. welcome to DU

[raising2moredems]

36. Insurance companies did a lousy job pricing policies and defining networks

UHC and to a smidge lesser extent Aetna had NO business being on the exchange. Both are large group insurers hence little experience/actuarial data on which to set their premiums. They blew it big time. Large group plans typically have large networks. Corporate America can have employees in many states or many areas in a state. So between bad pricing and networks that were too big, they lost more money than they should have. The first year or two of the exchange was going to be tough on profits. People who didn't have coverage for years (or ever) did what any sane person would do - go get treated.

[spanone]

40. but it sounds soooo dramatic!!!!!

[raising2moredems]

45. The "spin" about allowing insurance companies to across state lines

Is a big, fat lie. Any insurance company can sell in any state as long as the company a) is licensed in that state and b) complies with the laws in that state. IMHO, it is the "complies with the laws of the state" that the pukes want to remove. It would be no different than credit card companies domiciling in SD (where state credit card law is the most business friendly in the country). Insurance companies would be domiciled in the state (or states, I really should say red states) that require they cover the least amount of services, have the lowest premium reserve requirements, don't do compliance/mandatory exams of the insurance companies, and rubber stamp rate hikes.