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MineralMan

(146,254 posts)
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 09:57 AM Mar 2017

What might Trump do in North Korea?

One scenario I can imagine Trump considering is a massive bombing raid, using our entire fleet of B-52s, each carrying massive guided conventional bombs. I have little doubt that we have precisely detailed information about where all NK military assets are. Some are, no doubt, in deep underground bunkers, but not all.

This would be an attempt at a decapitation raid, with Kim Jung Un as a primary target. I suspect, though, that we don't know his exact location, since he's as paranoid a leader as you'll find anywhere. Well, almost, anyhow.

This type of preemptive attack would be just the sort of thing Trump would find attractive. I'm not sure what his military advisers would think of the plan, but that really doesn't matter all that much to Trump. He could order it and it would be carried out.

Let's hope that someone is able to convince him not to pull a stunt like that.

116 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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What might Trump do in North Korea? (Original Post) MineralMan Mar 2017 OP
Hope... Zoonart Mar 2017 #1
I can't imagine a scenario where a military coup MineralMan Mar 2017 #6
Yeah, unfortunately it is. Unless Tillerson is disappeared. Jonny Appleseed Mar 2017 #10
Yeah, something along those lines... Wounded Bear Mar 2017 #2
NK has 1.2 M troops and 7 M reserves - SK has 650K & the U.S. 30K exboyfil Mar 2017 #42
LOL. That's probably the same question French General Henri Navarre asked KingCharlemagne Mar 2017 #51
Overlooking artillery has changed a lot of battles exboyfil Mar 2017 #59
OT, but what were Custer's last words? KingCharlemagne Mar 2017 #63
I forgot them damn gatling guns... Historic NY Mar 2017 #74
"Where the fuck did all those Indians KingCharlemagne Mar 2017 #111
they have artillery that can hit Seoul and d_r Mar 2017 #55
And NK has 5000 tons of nerve agents - including VX jpak Mar 2017 #97
Is it poor sportsmanship to root for the underdog DPRK in this KingCharlemagne Mar 2017 #3
no because d_r Mar 2017 #57
Oh, the poor South Koreans. I have it from an impeccable source that KingCharlemagne Mar 2017 #62
What source, pray tell? MineralMan Mar 2017 #89
She had to flee ROK after she received death thrats from members of KingCharlemagne Mar 2017 #113
I'm "rooting" for nobody. MineralMan Mar 2017 #72
Same. I'm against needless wars that can be avoided. xor Mar 2017 #85
MOAB jpak Mar 2017 #4
I wonder how many of those we have ready. MineralMan Mar 2017 #7
It's been superceded by the MOP jpak Mar 2017 #13
Hmm...could be. MineralMan Mar 2017 #17
They were developed with NK and Iran in mind - 20 ordered jpak Mar 2017 #20
I'm sure that's the case. Mostly Iran, MineralMan Mar 2017 #23
20's not enough for what I'm thinking about. MineralMan Mar 2017 #24
They have 1 plutonium production reactor jpak Mar 2017 #69
To change the subject, he will nuke it, rather than be humiliated over his wiretapping lies Doodley Mar 2017 #5
No, I don't think so. MineralMan Mar 2017 #9
According to 45 maryellen99 Mar 2017 #28
I truly believe that would be the point where the military would MineralMan Mar 2017 #39
Let's hope nt maryellen99 Mar 2017 #41
You over-estimate the restraint of the Chiefs... Moostache Mar 2017 #65
Also the ? that has to be asked too is that how many are rapturists/end timers? maryellen99 Mar 2017 #66
My thought too! PearliePoo2 Mar 2017 #86
He also asked, repeatedly, during the campaign why we couldn't just do a first strike hatrack Mar 2017 #30
See my #39. I don't think MineralMan Mar 2017 #40
WWIII is a distinct possibility. (nt) Paladin Mar 2017 #8
Any action will likely escalate, hard to tell where it will end and the extent of involvement by RKP5637 Mar 2017 #78
I would expect all this has been war planned out. PearliePoo2 Mar 2017 #11
I suppose it probably has. MineralMan Mar 2017 #12
The best the U.S. could hope for True Dough Mar 2017 #18
But Trump Don't Care. MineralMan Mar 2017 #21
Also for the very real possibility that North Korea will take hostages dalton99a Mar 2017 #27
Now that scares the shit out of me... Heartstrings Mar 2017 #82
I believe you have good reason to be scared. I'm scared for all of us, everywhere. PearliePoo2 Mar 2017 #96
Good idea however... Heartstrings Mar 2017 #103
Today, Tillerson said: PearliePoo2 Mar 2017 #14
I expect he will negotiate a Trump Tower North Korea Johonny Mar 2017 #15
North Korea has a decent air defense system that covers most of the country dalton99a Mar 2017 #16
Yes. However, we have a lot of technology designed MineralMan Mar 2017 #19
It's virtually all 1960's Soviet era stuff - and completely obsolete. jpak Mar 2017 #31
They rely on barrages of missiles and AA gunfire and mobile radar units. dalton99a Mar 2017 #48
So was Saddam's jpak Mar 2017 #58
Saddam's inventory looked good on paper dalton99a Mar 2017 #68
MIG-17, 19, 21 and their Chinese copies are no match for F-16, 15, and 22. jpak Mar 2017 #70
True. But you don't need a fighter to down a B-52. dalton99a Mar 2017 #73
And B-52s would use cruise missiles and stand-off munitions to attack NK targets jpak Mar 2017 #81
B-52s are exceedingly hard to attack. MineralMan Mar 2017 #90
Its only takes one "exocet" type crusie missle to get through.... Historic NY Mar 2017 #79
The Kh-35 is a subsonic cruise missile - a US destroyer shot down 2 similar Chinese ASMs near Yemen jpak Mar 2017 #87
This is very dangerous sabre-rattling Golden Raisin Mar 2017 #22
Yes, it is. It's also a massive distraction, and that's something MineralMan Mar 2017 #29
Pre-emptive sneak attack? workinclasszero Mar 2017 #25
Yep. North Korea doesn't need nuclear weapons to inflict massive damage on Seoul dalton99a Mar 2017 #32
Thats right. Seoul can be reduced to rubble in hours workinclasszero Mar 2017 #38
And South Koreans will hate the U.S. for sacrificing their capital city. dalton99a Mar 2017 #50
No doubt. workinclasszero Mar 2017 #93
Yes, I understand that very well. However, we're beginning to MineralMan Mar 2017 #34
Oh he's going to need a massive distraction alright workinclasszero Mar 2017 #43
i have no 'hope' for trump spanone Mar 2017 #26
Yes. That's why it's a real danger. MineralMan Mar 2017 #45
Trump, could likely take action with no thought about the consequences to prove his missile is RKP5637 Mar 2017 #84
Doesn't he have time to go to congress for this? Why aren't legislators demanding it? nt wiggs Mar 2017 #33
Not really. Not anymore. MineralMan Mar 2017 #35
Not sure this is pre-emptive. Pre-emptive is legal, preventative is not (Iraq). wiggs Mar 2017 #36
Weirdly enough, given Trump and Tillerson's taunts, DPRK would be fully within KingCharlemagne Mar 2017 #46
It is a more volatile situation than most people believe, MineralMan Mar 2017 #49
Your support for the DPRK is worrisome to me. MineralMan Mar 2017 #75
Under current international law, preemptive wars to stop an imminent attack KingCharlemagne Mar 2017 #106
I'm not saying anything at all of that nature. MineralMan Mar 2017 #108
Is it "supporting" DPRK to note that she has the absolute right KingCharlemagne Mar 2017 #114
It is, yes. MineralMan Mar 2017 #115
Keeping a close eye...I have family traveling to Japan in two weeks. Might have wiggs Mar 2017 #37
North Korea could reak havoc on South Korea in minutes, beachbum bob Mar 2017 #44
Trump is unlikely to use nuclear weapons if he does such a thing. MineralMan Mar 2017 #47
30,000 US troops would face annihilation and their only defense are tactical field nukes beachbum bob Mar 2017 #53
Put nukes in So. Korea chelsea0011 Mar 2017 #52
I believe they flew some nuclear-armed B-52s into MineralMan Mar 2017 #54
Were they armed or just the planes? I never did see anything definitive one way or another. chelsea0011 Mar 2017 #56
I don't believe that information was made public. MineralMan Mar 2017 #61
One crazy trying to out crazy the other crazy California_Republic Mar 2017 #60
Exactly. Scary stuff. MineralMan Mar 2017 #64
There's also this as well maryellen99 Mar 2017 #67
Worth keeping in mind that Trump and the GOP love to punch down...not just wiggs Mar 2017 #71
That is true, and if Trump is looking around for a distraction, MineralMan Mar 2017 #76
I fear he will use nuclear weapons liberal N proud Mar 2017 #77
Fear is an appropriate reaction. MineralMan Mar 2017 #83
when prez putz starts to go down in flames, there is no telling what he Motley13 Mar 2017 #80
Trump will do whatever he thinks will keep him in MineralMan Mar 2017 #88
DUReccing this entire thread. longship Mar 2017 #91
Stimulating discussion is always my goal. MineralMan Mar 2017 #92
Well, IMHO, this is one of the better threads today. nt longship Mar 2017 #94
Thanks. I really appreciate that. MineralMan Mar 2017 #95
I hope that he can be convinced not to do this. Kimchijeon Mar 2017 #98
Yes. I'm sure we all hope that. MineralMan Mar 2017 #99
Seoul would be lost if that happens. bathroommonkey76 Mar 2017 #100
I think there is a very good chance of that, too. MineralMan Mar 2017 #102
I hope Trump knows that bathroommonkey76 Mar 2017 #107
Trump is a narcissist first, second and third. MineralMan Mar 2017 #109
The Missles Are Flying Bayard Mar 2017 #101
Regarding N. Korea, here are two VERY informative interviews with General Michael Hayden. PearliePoo2 Mar 2017 #104
Thanks very much for posting those two videos! MineralMan Mar 2017 #105
You're most welcome. Whenever General Hayden is interviewed, I sit up, tune in and pay attention. PearliePoo2 Mar 2017 #116
One or two more tweet, maybe. Meanwhile, China wants an apology, I imagine. L. Coyote Mar 2017 #110
I hope you are correct. I want to think you are correct. MineralMan Mar 2017 #112

Zoonart

(11,832 posts)
1. Hope...
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 10:01 AM
Mar 2017

The generals are our only hope here. I think that Mattis and the other generals in the WH are already chaffing at being pushes around by the political apparatchiks.

Is a military coup in our future?

 

Jonny Appleseed

(960 posts)
10. Yeah, unfortunately it is. Unless Tillerson is disappeared.
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 10:08 AM
Mar 2017

We're dealing with a Cerberus where each head has a different agenda. One head wants to continue guarding hell, another head wants to change hell by restricting the nationalities and race of the souls allowed in, and the final head wants to leave hell to drill for oil (which is ironic because hell is perfectly capable of being sustainable on renewable sources of energy such as its molten lakes of fire).

Wounded Bear

(58,598 posts)
2. Yeah, something along those lines...
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 10:02 AM
Mar 2017

certainly an attempt to take out all of the missile launchers capable of launching regional/long range missiles.

Seoul is a big target, and it's in range of conventional artillery, of which NK has many, many units along the DMZ. They would certainly strike back and there would be thousands of casualties, mostly civilians and many of them US citizens in the city working and living.

Ugly scenarios abound.

exboyfil

(17,862 posts)
42. NK has 1.2 M troops and 7 M reserves - SK has 650K & the U.S. 30K
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 10:51 AM
Mar 2017

From Wikipedia:

North Korea has thousands of artillery pieces near the DMZ. Experts believe that 60 percent of its total artillery is positioned within a few kilometers of the DMZ acting as a deterrent against any South Korean invasion because of the damage they could inflict on Seoul and suburbs like Paju (population 427,668) which is only 10 kilometers from the DMZ. In the event of all-out war it is believed that North Korea could fire 500,000 rounds of artillery on northern Seoul within the first hour.[37]

I have to hope, if we are insane enough to start a war, that all the wealth that SK and the US have spent on their military will translate in a significant advantage. Do we have a way to take out that artillery?

 

KingCharlemagne

(7,908 posts)
51. LOL. That's probably the same question French General Henri Navarre asked
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 11:01 AM
Mar 2017

at Dien Bien Phu, ca. 1954.

 

KingCharlemagne

(7,908 posts)
62. Oh, the poor South Koreans. I have it from an impeccable source that
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 11:10 AM
Mar 2017

the President of Samsung likes to look out of the windows of his house at the shanty towns at the bottom of the hill and has been quoted as saying he prefers that view to any other. IOW, the President of Samsung is just as bad or worse than Trump.

This is the utter moral shit we are preparing to defend?

MineralMan

(146,254 posts)
89. What source, pray tell?
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 12:24 PM
Mar 2017

Who do you know who has some sort of intimate relationship with the President of Samsung and knows what he says in private?

Of course, you're not going to reveal that, even if your source exists. But, it does raise questions. If you have such a source, you're very well connected. If not, then you're just guessing like the rest of us.

I wonder which it is...

 

KingCharlemagne

(7,908 posts)
113. She had to flee ROK after she received death thrats from members of
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 02:06 PM
Mar 2017

its security services for leftist activities. Apparently, though, this statement by Samsung's president was made to, and reported in, the South Korean press. He made no attempt to sugarcoat his opinion. My friend asked me to boycott Samsung products because of this and other regressive policies pursued by Samsung.

MineralMan

(146,254 posts)
72. I'm "rooting" for nobody.
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 11:51 AM
Mar 2017

I don't "root" for warfare of any kind.

I'm not a fan of North Korea, though. Not in any way. Not at any time.

xor

(1,204 posts)
85. Same. I'm against needless wars that can be avoided.
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 12:19 PM
Mar 2017

Even if American losses are low, millions of South and North Koreans civilians would be caught in the crossfire. I can't say I see anything good coming from that. I wish North Korea would stop poking the idiot ape in the white house.

jpak

(41,756 posts)
13. It's been superceded by the MOP
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 10:16 AM
Mar 2017
http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/mopping-up-the-usas-30000-pound-bomb-03172/

October 19/15: Boeing’s GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) will undergo a second phase redesign, known as the Enhanced Threat Reduction IV, with a contract anticipated soon external link external link. With no plans to competitively procure the weapon, the next GBU-57 contract – expected to be for the redesign, qualification and testing of the weapon – will be a sole-course acquisition. The bunker-busting bomb has been in development since 2004, with early tests conducted by the US Defense Threat Reduction Agency. The hard-penetrating weapon is intended to be carried on B-2A Spirit stealth bombers, thought to be capable of carrying two of the weapons in internal bays.

<more>

We probably have a bunch

MineralMan

(146,254 posts)
17. Hmm...could be.
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 10:20 AM
Mar 2017

I have no way to find out about such things. Typically, they're classified information.

I'm just mentioning a scenario that might have entered Trump's tiny little brain.

MineralMan

(146,254 posts)
23. I'm sure that's the case. Mostly Iran,
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 10:31 AM
Mar 2017

I think.

North Korea has developed some nuclear weapons, but I don't know what they have actually deployed in a ready state. It would not surprise me, though, if we had that information, along with a lot of other information. Despite NK being so tightly closed and paranoid, I imagine our intelligence about NK's military capability and order of arms is pretty thorough.

The wild card here is Trump, himself. And that's a weird, unpredictable wild card. I doubt he has much knowledge of military actions at all, and most of what he does have is probably wrong. He can get briefings from the military now, though, and I'm sure he has requested plans for actions that could be taken against North Korea.

However, I think he is apt to ignore advice and run with whatever strange plan he has concocted in his fevered little brain. He's not one to dwell on possible consequences, either. I'd be interested in hearing if there has been any uptick in activity at military installations in the Pacific region. I haven't heard anything so far, though.

MineralMan

(146,254 posts)
24. 20's not enough for what I'm thinking about.
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 10:32 AM
Mar 2017

Of course, we have a lot of other conventional weaponry.

jpak

(41,756 posts)
69. They have 1 plutonium production reactor
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 11:26 AM
Mar 2017

1 plutonium processing facility

1 ICBM missile test site.

20 is enough



maryellen99

(3,785 posts)
28. According to 45
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 10:36 AM
Mar 2017

"What's the point of having Nuclear Weapons if you can't use them"? Yes I think he is that stupid and will use them.

MineralMan

(146,254 posts)
39. I truly believe that would be the point where the military would
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 10:49 AM
Mar 2017

simply say, "No, Mr. President. We aren't going to do that, sir, with all due respect. You're going to need to get Congress to approve such a thing."

The President is the Commander in Chief, but such a thing has never been tested. I could be wrong, but I believe that would be a point of refusal by the military. The President could order it, but it would still have to be carried out, and he can't do that. He doesn't know how to do that. So, the Chiefs of Staff could thwart such an order. It has never been tried, though, so I'm just going on common sense with my belief.

Moostache

(9,895 posts)
65. You over-estimate the restraint of the Chiefs...
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 11:19 AM
Mar 2017

They would likely see such an order as the ultimate test of loyalty to their oath and would execute it unhesitatingly. That is exactly why we have civilian control and authority over the military, because the very act of being in the military drums the humanity and reason out of the active participants. It is believed that there is no other way to be an effective fighting force than to adhere to a strict chain of command and following of orders without question.

Time and time again, from the time of the Greeks and Romans to the Ottomans and Napoleon to the conquest of the native peoples of North America, to the massacre pits of trench warfare, to the Nazi's and Stalin to My Lai and others, to Abu Gharib....history is replete with tales of the military's capacity for horrific action in the name of "orders". (Civilians in time of war have no better track record of compassion or restraint either...)

If it comes to shooting and we are taking heavy losses of life (as in the firebombing of Seoul and South Korea and Tokyo and Japan), then I do not see anything at all that would restrain our Orange SHit-gibbon "leader" from ordering a nuclear strike. And I do not see anything in the military culture or chain of command that would stop it either. They do not consider restraint or thoughtful contemplation part of the job description...

PearliePoo2

(7,768 posts)
86. My thought too!
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 12:21 PM
Mar 2017

Well, we can start with VP 'Pentecostal Pence' for one. I believe his Cabinet is crawling with 'em too.
No idea though, how many 'end-timers' are in the top Brass.

hatrack

(59,574 posts)
30. He also asked, repeatedly, during the campaign why we couldn't just do a first strike
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 10:37 AM
Mar 2017

I wouldn't be so confident.

RKP5637

(67,086 posts)
78. Any action will likely escalate, hard to tell where it will end and the extent of involvement by
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 12:05 PM
Mar 2017

other nations. It could prove a horrific scenario.

PearliePoo2

(7,768 posts)
11. I would expect all this has been war planned out.
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 10:09 AM
Mar 2017

Would Seoul then become rubble from N. Korea artillery fire? Does Kim launch his medium range birds to Japan? Mated with nukes, or not?

I remember reading that young Kim's father told him that, " If you know you're going down, you have nothing to lose, so take everyone you can down with you."

MineralMan

(146,254 posts)
12. I suppose it probably has.
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 10:11 AM
Mar 2017

However, dealing with NK's ability to attack Seoul would have been part of that planning, I'd think, don't you?

True Dough

(17,246 posts)
18. The best the U.S. could hope for
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 10:21 AM
Mar 2017

is to limit the damage to Seoul. Even a perfectly coordinated effort is unlikely to prevent North Korea from launching some missiles southward. We can keep our fingers crossed that those missiles land in locations that lead to minimal damage. After all, North Korea is well armed, but much of their technology still lacks pinpoint accuracy.

Under such a scenario, we should be prepared for a significant loss of life in the south, however. Just a question of whether it reaches the tens of thousands or maybe even the hundreds of thousands.

dalton99a

(81,392 posts)
27. Also for the very real possibility that North Korea will take hostages
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 10:34 AM
Mar 2017

as happened many times to individual visitors

Heartstrings

(7,349 posts)
82. Now that scares the shit out of me...
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 12:12 PM
Mar 2017

My 7 year old grandson is going to spend this Summer in Japan with his Japanese side of the family...

PearliePoo2

(7,768 posts)
96. I believe you have good reason to be scared. I'm scared for all of us, everywhere.
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 12:41 PM
Mar 2017

Maybe your Grandson can invite his Japanese relatives to come over here instead?
Course, the N. Koreans are feverishly working on delivering a long range missile capable of reaching the West Coast (San Francisco-Portland-Seattle) that experts think is maybe a year or two away from becoming a reality. But no one knows for sure, it could be ready even sooner.





Heartstrings

(7,349 posts)
103. Good idea however...
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 01:06 PM
Mar 2017

he was going to go to school with his cousins, they have the 2nd best educational systems globally...perfect his 2nd language...not too mention the families yuuuge! I'm scared for them as well...

dalton99a

(81,392 posts)
16. North Korea has a decent air defense system that covers most of the country
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 10:20 AM
Mar 2017

They've been waiting for an attack for decades.

MineralMan

(146,254 posts)
19. Yes. However, we have a lot of technology designed
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 10:22 AM
Mar 2017

to deal with such air defenses, and NK is not known for the reliability of its military installations, really. What NK has is mostly Chinese, with some old Soviet technology still hanging around.

dalton99a

(81,392 posts)
48. They rely on barrages of missiles and AA gunfire and mobile radar units.
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 10:56 AM
Mar 2017

Their radar capability is relatively modern.

dalton99a

(81,392 posts)
68. Saddam's inventory looked good on paper
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 11:25 AM
Mar 2017

The reality was many Iraqi pilots didn't know how to fly, and most preferred to avoid direct combat. A lot of it was piss-poor training and poorer motivation. The North Koreans are a different bunch.

jpak

(41,756 posts)
70. MIG-17, 19, 21 and their Chinese copies are no match for F-16, 15, and 22.
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 11:30 AM
Mar 2017

They would shot down in short order.

dalton99a

(81,392 posts)
73. True. But you don't need a fighter to down a B-52.
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 11:54 AM
Mar 2017

Their hardware has been expanded and upgraded in recent years. For example, their guidance system is now harder to jam.

jpak

(41,756 posts)
81. And B-52s would use cruise missiles and stand-off munitions to attack NK targets
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 12:07 PM
Mar 2017

no need to even get near their air defenses.

MineralMan

(146,254 posts)
90. B-52s are exceedingly hard to attack.
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 12:28 PM
Mar 2017

That's why they're still in the arsenal, and their countermeasures have been upgraded again and again. They're not particularly vulnerable to a country like North Korea, which does not have the most recent armaments that might be used against them.

They're not dive bombers, after all. They can stand very far off and still be enormously deadly and accurate.

jpak

(41,756 posts)
87. The Kh-35 is a subsonic cruise missile - a US destroyer shot down 2 similar Chinese ASMs near Yemen
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 12:22 PM
Mar 2017

with 15 seconds warning.

Tomahawks out-range the Kh-35 and there is no reason to put them in their range.

Golden Raisin

(4,605 posts)
22. This is very dangerous sabre-rattling
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 10:28 AM
Mar 2017

given the particularly volatile personalities and egos of Kim Jong-un and Trump. If the generals don't convince or prevent Trump from a massive bombing of North Korea we can possibly expect a side order at home of either martial law, cancellation of elections, etc. Bannon is just itching for an excuse to bring it all down in flames.

MineralMan

(146,254 posts)
29. Yes, it is. It's also a massive distraction, and that's something
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 10:36 AM
Mar 2017

Trump needs right at the moment. That, to me, makes something like this seem more likely to occur. Trump is possibly on the edge of some major setback. I'm not sure what that might be, exactly, but he's walking a thin line in many areas.

A big military action works as a distraction, and always has. However, it would also have the potential to bring him down very quickly if it went wrong. But, Trump's an optimist when it comes to his own ideas. He's always sure they'll work out just great. He's a "tremendous thinker," you know. He has "wonderful ideas."

Frankly, I'm not looking at this as some sort of appropriate thing for him to do. I'm thinking about it as being something he might do to distract from an impending political disaster for himself.

 

workinclasszero

(28,270 posts)
25. Pre-emptive sneak attack?
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 10:34 AM
Mar 2017
North Korea would suddenly discover that its worthless promises of civilized behavior would cut no ice. I would let Pyongyang know in no uncertain terms that it can either get out of the nuclear arms race or expect a rebuke similar to the one Ronald Reagan delivered to Ghadhafi in 1986. I don’t think anybody is going to accuse me of tiptoeing through the issues or tap-dancing around them either. Who else in public life has called for a pre-emptive strike on North Korea?

Source: The America We Deserve, by Donald Trump, p.274 , Jul 2, 2000


Couple of problems though. Seoul would be instantly obliterated by masses of artillery pre-aimed and ready to roar at a second's notice and the evil dictator of NK has nukes.



Seoul's Vulnerability Is Key to War Scenarios
A U.S. strike on the North may provoke a catastrophic retaliation against South's capital.

By Barbara Demick, Times Staff Writer

SEOUL -- When the U.S. military tries to explain the difficulty of using force to stop North Korea's development of nuclear weapons, the oddly poetic phrase it turns to is the "tyranny of proximity."

The phrase, which has been in the lexicon of the U.S. forces in South Korea for years, stems from the imposing array of conventional artillery that the North Koreans have dug into the hills just north of the demilitarized zone, a mere 30 miles from this capital city of 12 million. The nightmare scenario is that if the United States opts for a more forceful approach to curb North Korea's nuclear ambitions, the communist regime would retaliate not only against the 38,000 American troops stationed in South Korea, but also against South Korea itself.

http://www.ph.ucla.edu/epi/bioter/seoulsvulnerability.html
 

workinclasszero

(28,270 posts)
38. Thats right. Seoul can be reduced to rubble in hours
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 10:47 AM
Mar 2017

No nukes needed.

The NK dictator would probably try to hit mainland Japan with those if he thinks hes going down for good.

 

workinclasszero

(28,270 posts)
93. No doubt.
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 12:39 PM
Mar 2017
The population of Seoul in 2016 is estimated at 10.29 million, although this is just the population of the Special City, which has a density of about 17,000 people per square kilometer (45,000/square mile). The sprawling metropolitan area is much larger at 25.6 million.

Interestingly, Seoul's population density is almost twice that of New York City, four times higher than Los Angeles and eight times higher than the density of Rome.


http://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/seoul-population/

MineralMan

(146,254 posts)
34. Yes, I understand that very well. However, we're beginning to
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 10:43 AM
Mar 2017

get a feel for Donald Trump's erratic decision-making. He's not put together all that well, and really doesn't seem to consider all factors before taking action. He thinks only in the short-term, and rarely considers consequences.

That's why I'm concerned about a scenario like this one. As for North Korea's nuclear capabilities, I have no idea whether they have deployed any workable nuclear devices that could be used. I'm sure the IC has that information, though. I also imagine that we know the precise location of all of the conventional arms that threaten Seoul. How much of that we could neutralize immediately, I don't know. I'm sure a number of plans have been created, though, as exercises. That's what the military does when it's not engaging in immediate conflicts.

None of that, however, matters to Trump. If he needs a massive distraction to pull his ass out of some fire, he'll create it. That's his style.

 

workinclasszero

(28,270 posts)
43. Oh he's going to need a massive distraction alright
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 10:51 AM
Mar 2017

As soon as his batshit insane budget gets passed by the republican Congress and the economy goes down the shit-tubes.

RKP5637

(67,086 posts)
84. Trump, could likely take action with no thought about the consequences to prove his missile is
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 12:19 PM
Mar 2017

bigger than Kim Jong-un's ... that, sadly, is the level at which Trump functions IMO. It could also give him the distraction he wants to pull himself (in his mind) out of the shit storm he's created during such a short time in office.

Bannon and his ilk would rejoice if martial law were to be declared across the US if institutions were to tumble as the US possibly braced for an all out war if such a scenario were to escalate totally out of control.

There is one thing for certain, something is bound to happen with the massive egos in N.K. and the WH.

MineralMan

(146,254 posts)
35. Not really. Not anymore.
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 10:45 AM
Mar 2017

That ends up being done after the fact these days. The President has the War Powers Act. It gives him huge leeway in using the military, especially in the case of an "emergency situation."

I don't know what goes on in Trump's mind. Probably neither does he, actually.

wiggs

(7,810 posts)
36. Not sure this is pre-emptive. Pre-emptive is legal, preventative is not (Iraq).
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 10:46 AM
Mar 2017

If we knew that attack from NK was imminent and beat them to the punch, then that would be legal and pre-emptive.

 

KingCharlemagne

(7,908 posts)
46. Weirdly enough, given Trump and Tillerson's taunts, DPRK would be fully within
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 10:54 AM
Mar 2017

its legal and moral rights now to launch pre-emptive strikes on the South and the 38,000 U.S. troops stationed in the DMZ. They would not even need a U.N. Security Council blessing to do so.

MineralMan

(146,254 posts)
49. It is a more volatile situation than most people believe,
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 10:58 AM
Mar 2017

I'm sure. I don't have a lot of detailed information, frankly, so I'm just trying to put myself in Trump's mind and see what he might be considering. This is just weird enough and scary enough for him to do. As I said above, he may know that he needs a massive distraction to divert attention away from some upcoming information release.

If that's the case, I would not put it past him to do something like this.

MineralMan

(146,254 posts)
75. Your support for the DPRK is worrisome to me.
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 11:56 AM
Mar 2017

If you think it has a legal and moral right to attack South Korea, I'm even more concerned. I can't remember a lot of people who have expressed such support here, but I do remember a couple.

In any case, I'm not supporting any such attack by the Trump administration. I think it would be a horrible mistake. However, I believe that it within his limited capabilities to think that it would serve as a useful diversion. Do not mistake my musing about this as any sort of support for such a thing.

 

KingCharlemagne

(7,908 posts)
106. Under current international law, preemptive wars to stop an imminent attack
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 01:51 PM
Mar 2017

do not require U.N. Security Council approval. (Preventative wars do require said Sec. Council approval.) Tillerson and Trump have just created an imminent threat of aggressive war, to which DPRK is entitled under international law to respond. Or are you saying that only the U.S. gets to claim the protections of international law? If so, you should be upfront about that.

MineralMan

(146,254 posts)
108. I'm not saying anything at all of that nature.
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 01:54 PM
Mar 2017

I'm speculating on what Trump might do. It is my opinion of what might happen.

 

KingCharlemagne

(7,908 posts)
114. Is it "supporting" DPRK to note that she has the absolute right
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 02:11 PM
Mar 2017

to defend herself, especially against a fascist POS like Trump?

wiggs

(7,810 posts)
37. Keeping a close eye...I have family traveling to Japan in two weeks. Might have
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 10:47 AM
Mar 2017

to pull the plug if things ratchet up

 

beachbum bob

(10,437 posts)
44. North Korea could reak havoc on South Korea in minutes,
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 10:53 AM
Mar 2017

destroying Seoul.....our crazy forcing their crazy to do crazy and then that is that folks as who knows how China and Riussia would react to Trump's nuking of north korea in retaliation...

MineralMan

(146,254 posts)
47. Trump is unlikely to use nuclear weapons if he does such a thing.
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 10:55 AM
Mar 2017

He also doesn't care about Seoul, really.

 

beachbum bob

(10,437 posts)
53. 30,000 US troops would face annihilation and their only defense are tactical field nukes
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 11:03 AM
Mar 2017

faced with onslaught of a million man army with 8 million in reserves, trumps answer would be nukes...you gotta remember who does trump have around him...they are all nutcases hoping for such a confrontation

MineralMan

(146,254 posts)
61. I don't believe that information was made public.
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 11:09 AM
Mar 2017

It rarely is. It's highly classified stuff. And rightly so.

wiggs

(7,810 posts)
71. Worth keeping in mind that Trump and the GOP love to punch down...not just
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 11:47 AM
Mar 2017

when they have to but when they can.

In their minds, hierarchy is everything.

MineralMan

(146,254 posts)
76. That is true, and if Trump is looking around for a distraction,
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 12:01 PM
Mar 2017

which he may well be right now, it would be hard to find a bigger distraction, except maybe for wiping out Iran's nuclear capabilities altogether, which is another possibility that's probably whirling around in his spinning brain.

It's just that North Korea is particularly newsworthy right now, and Tillerson has been in Japan and South Korea and is in China today. I don't know what the conversations entail, but the media is being kept at a distance on this trip.

I have a sense of foreboding over all of this, to be quite frank.

MineralMan

(146,254 posts)
83. Fear is an appropriate reaction.
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 12:19 PM
Mar 2017

A lot will depend on who Trump is listening to. If he listens to the Generals, they'll advise him to forget that nonsense. If he's listening to Bannon, on the other hand, he might hear a different line of advice, since Bannon is certifiably nuts.

I'm hopeful that good sense will prevail, but very worried that it will not.

Motley13

(3,867 posts)
80. when prez putz starts to go down in flames, there is no telling what he
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 12:06 PM
Mar 2017

might do, I fear he will take us with him & what better way than to start a war?


MineralMan

(146,254 posts)
88. Trump will do whatever he thinks will keep him in
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 12:22 PM
Mar 2017

the White House. If he thinks a military distraction will do the job, then he will create one. A lot depends on how worried he is about some news forcing a showdown with the Republicans in Congress. That news might exist and just be waiting to break. If that's true, then he's likely to create a massive distraction to prevent him from being forced out of the White House.

What are the Russians saying to him? The channels of communication are thinner than they were before the election, but are still operating, I'm sure. That may matter more than anything else.

longship

(40,416 posts)
91. DUReccing this entire thread.
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 12:36 PM
Mar 2017

Very thoughtful thread.

An attack on DPRK would likely end in disaster. Or worse.

One thing, though. I do not think that DPRK has a deliverable nuke. Their tests were all very low yield, almost within the range of conventional explosives. Intelligence would clearly tell whether they were in fact nuclear detonations. But that info would be classified. Still, seismic measurements would tell as a nuclear explosion has a very specific signature. That data might be publically available.

I must presume that DPRK has at least the makings of a dirty bomb, however.

Thanks, MM. you've stimulated some interesting discussion here.

MineralMan

(146,254 posts)
92. Stimulating discussion is always my goal.
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 12:38 PM
Mar 2017

Trump is the wild card in all of this. He defies prediction, sadly, and is capable of doing things we'd all thing were irrational.

That is a great source of worry for me.

Kimchijeon

(1,606 posts)
98. I hope that he can be convinced not to do this.
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 12:49 PM
Mar 2017

But I also realize that Bannon would love it, hence I'm really worried.

MineralMan

(146,254 posts)
99. Yes. I'm sure we all hope that.
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 12:51 PM
Mar 2017

Sadly, we have no means to help Trump understand why.

He is beyond reason.

MineralMan

(146,254 posts)
102. I think there is a very good chance of that, too.
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 12:56 PM
Mar 2017

Or at least horribly damaged. Trump, however, probably doesn't see that as a reason not to attack North Korea. Trump probably doesn't even understand where Seoul is, really, in relation to the border.

He is that disconnected from reality. He probably also imagines Seoul as a sleepy little city. He may know that South Korea is the home of Samsung, but he may not even know that. Surely he doesn't know that Hyundai/KIA are major exporters of automobiles to the United states and have factories here that employ US workers.

What Donald Trump doesn't know is just about everything. And he has no interest in learning, either.

 

bathroommonkey76

(3,827 posts)
107. I hope Trump knows that
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 01:54 PM
Mar 2017

North Korea has one of the world's largest stockpiles of chemical weapons-- sarin, mustard, tabun and hydrogen cyanide would be volleyed over into SK within minutes. NK would use everything in its arsenal if they feel threatened by the United States and SK.

You're right about Trump's mental illness. But I do think he is smart enough to know that winning/ending the Korean War would make him a hero in GOP circles. Trump needs this gratification from within the GOP and his supporters to survive.
He hears their cheers 24 hours a day. If we gained access to his thoughts I'm sure we'd see the imaginary confetti falling, ticker tape parades, and chants of "Trump, Trump, Trump" reverberating across all of the TV speakers across the world.




MineralMan

(146,254 posts)
109. Trump is a narcissist first, second and third.
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 01:56 PM
Mar 2017

You're right. Whatever he decides will be based primarily on its impact on Donald Trump, and not much else. That is what makes him so dangerous, because what is good for him is generally not good for everyone else.

PearliePoo2

(7,768 posts)
104. Regarding N. Korea, here are two VERY informative interviews with General Michael Hayden.
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 01:40 PM
Mar 2017

Recommended viewing. (Holy 'Bombs Away' Batman!)



General Hayden starts at 0:42.







PearliePoo2

(7,768 posts)
116. You're most welcome. Whenever General Hayden is interviewed, I sit up, tune in and pay attention.
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 02:34 PM
Mar 2017

On one Morning Joe episode (wish I could find it now), Scar posed a question to General Hayden regarding safeguards or checks preventing Donald from launching nuclear birds out of their silos or from submarines, etc.
Scar basically asked him if a decision for a nuclear strike would have to go through appropriate channels to get an OK or approval.
General Hayden said, "No, he can do it and do it quickly." The system and policy is specifically and intentionally designed for immediate action. The time from decision to launch is about 4 minutes. Once anything is launched, there's no calling it back nor ability for self-destruct either.
Now, I'm thinking this is all premised on assuming a President is of sound mind, which we don't have presently.
Should he decide to go nuclear first strike, I'm hoping somebody in close proximity will be a patriot, take one for the team (planet) and do what's necessary with their service weapon. I'm serious.



L. Coyote

(51,129 posts)
110. One or two more tweet, maybe. Meanwhile, China wants an apology, I imagine.
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 01:56 PM
Mar 2017

The minute Trump tries to start a war, it is over for him. He lacks the necessary respect for people to do what he says under such circumstances.

MineralMan

(146,254 posts)
112. I hope you are correct. I want to think you are correct.
Fri Mar 17, 2017, 01:57 PM
Mar 2017

I am, however, not certain that you are correct. That worries me. A lot.

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