So, what might Putin's strategy, vis-a-vis the US Presidency, really be?

[MineralMan]

I take it as a given that Putin is a very smart person. It would take that to survive and thrive in post-Soviet Russia. So, with that as a starting premise, why would he align himself with Donald Trump in the U.S. election? That's the question.

In the first place, I doubt very much that he actually likes or has any respect for Donald Trump. Trump is an idiot, pretty much, and can't be trusted, really. With the proper kompramat, of course, he can be controlled, but Putin would be unlikely to actually trust such a dimwit.

That leads me to think that Putin's support for Trump in the 2016 election wasn't based on an actual desire to have him in the White House. That probably wasn't the reason at all. Instead, it was probably a desire to put an incompetent in that office so we'd be so busy trying to figure out how to get rid of him we wouldn't notice what Putin and Russia were doing on the world stage.

At the same time, keeping Hillary Clinton out of the White House was probably a very high priority for Putin. She's also very smart, and that creates problems for Putin. Unlike Trump, she actually knows about and understand international politics and relationships. Unlike Trump, too, Putin has no effective kompromat available to use against her.

Given those things, I believe Putin's goal was not to actually control the US government, but to throw a monkey wrench into the works as a distraction, allowing Putin to manipulate other nations' courses and keep us from peering too closely into his plans. For that goal, Trump is an ideal US President. Clumsy, stupid and unthinking, he is incapable of blocking Putin's plans. The extreme controversy surrounding his election is also an excellent smoke screen, since it occupies so much of our attention.

That's what I'm thinking about this Sunday morning. Thanks for reading.

[beachbum bob]

1. lifting US sanctions so he and his inner circle can make BILLIONS off their oil reserves

they can't do that until trump lifts the sanctions as the good comrade trump is

[MineralMan]

3. Yes. That's part of it, for sure.

And they will be lifted, I think, unless Trump goes down in smoke soon, which is possible.

[beachbum bob]

6. thats the entire purpose to get trump elected...and trump and his people will make billions too

with Putin/Russian Mob/ russian oligarthy its ALL about money...they already have power. Seeing a $1-$2 TRILLION dollar oil reserve putting ZERO in their pockets is killing them

[MineralMan]

8. I doubt it's the entire purpose, really.

I think there are a number of other plans Putin has that will be easier with Trump in there. The NATO questions Trump is raising leads me to think that Putin has designs on some of the former Soviet bloc nations. The entire Middle East is also in play right now.

Putin thinks beyond single issues, I believe.

[beachbum bob]

14. 95%...then

its about money, always about money...putin already has all the power but he doesn't have all the money that US sanctions prevents him from having

and the fact he (PUTIN) could control the outcome of US presidential election AND have the guy sitting in the Whitehouse under control

[Eliot Rosewater]

27. Not entire, destroy NATO and weaken all of Europe so he can

take over in one way or another.

[beachbum bob]

33. Making trump ineffective is enough...No US foriegn policy or

Leadership

[LisaL]

2. Putin wants sanction removed. Hillary wasn't going to do that.

[radical noodle]

4. As with all things, money and power

He wants to gobble up all the wealth he can while becoming the most powerful man in the world.

[LisaL]

5. Putin already is a most powerful man on Earth. At least according to CNN.

[radical noodle]

7. When does one think they are powerful enough?

He hasn't been the most powerful in the world up until Trump because there were always limits that the US set. He wanted to expand Russia, and weaken the EU and the US to lift himself up.

[sharedvalues]

9. Putin is not an intellectual

He is a strongman. He does a lot of posturing. It's not clear he has thought through all the options.

[MineralMan]

12. Being a strongman does not necessarily mean not

being extremely smart. Truly it doesn't. I think you'd be surprised at the depth of Putin's intellect. He's in a very, very tough environment, and has achieved remarkable success in a place where greed is the common currency.

[Eliot Rosewater]

29. The problem is we are comparing people to fuckface, fuckface is a complete idiot.

So yes, Putey can outsmart fuckface with half of his brain tied behind his back.

[MineralMan]

31. You know, I don't really like using obscenities to replace his name.

It's your choice, of course, but it just gives people another reason to dismiss what you say.

You might want to reconsider your choice of names to use.

[tblue37]

32. Through a close friend I have a passing acquaintance with a Russian (now naturalized)

whose best buddy from childhood is one of the Russian billionaires in Putin's circle. This man, who is still close with his friend and even works for him now, says the billionaire told him Putin is the public face of the oligarchic power that really controls Russia, but he is not irreplaceable. If Putin for some reason became a liability, or even if he somehow got taken down or out, he could fairly easily be replaced.

This is third-hand info, so take it with whatever amount of salt you like.

[sharedvalues]

34. He's a strongman

He knows how to use the levers of power, don't get me wrong. It would be wrong to underestimate that.

But from people who have worked in Russia, I understand he's thought of as a small corrupt man with little intellect. Trump is a reasonable example: a flim flam real estate salesman who is good at media relations, but if not for corrupt dealings with Russia would have gone out of business long ago (GS and other US Banks cut off Trump from lending after his AC misadventures). I would certainly describe Trump as having a weak intellect, though he is clearly a good salesman.

[dalton99a]

10. NATO is a huge impediment to his Make Russia Great Again project, and sanctions make Russia look bad

Putin sees his job as a nationalist (of course, he also sees his massive wealth as a natural privilege)

[sharedvalues]

11. Destroying the State Dept and angering UK, Germany, Canada, Mexico

Is PLENTY.

Weakening the countries allied against Putin is a very worthy goal. And he's already gotten this.

[shraby]

13. All of the above, and an added bonus. The U.S. is no longer the leading power in

the world. trump had demeaned us beyond recognition.

[Raine1967]

15. Russia is playing the long game and always has -- Trump made

things happen even quicker. This is a portion of an interview with 'KGB defector Yuri Bezmenov' in 1985. He defected to CAnada.

There is a complete version of this out there, but this is the meat of it.

For those that are 'tl;dw', here is the whole thing:

Great OP -- I think we need to REALLY Stay woke.

[MineralMan]

17. Yes. We think of short-term goals, but Putin and Russia

are always thinking of long-term goals. We often make that mistake, as we appear to have done in the 2016 election. We are remarkable for not looking far into the future, I think, and it doesn't help us in any way.

[Sculpin Beauregard]

38. utterly chilling

Thank you so much for providing these videos.

[Raine1967]

40. You are most welcome. Welcome to DU.

They are disturbing, but this guy is really talking about the USSR a (at the time) and Russia again does.

Glad you watched.

[KittyWampus]

16. destroying nation-states and leaving only empty shells so that oligarchs can rule unimpeded

by government regulations.

[MineralMan]

18. There you go, and their intent is global, not just

in the USA.

[MedusaX]

19. Very Accurate...

Vlad embraces globalism and is keenly aware of the vast opportunities, to improve Russia's global market positioning, that will arise naturally from an inexperienced US administration...
He also recognizes the potential bonuses which can likely be acquired through the use of indirect influences.
For example, there is a group "LetterOne" who owns Alfa Bank & Alfa Group etc ...
they are looking to improve their existing relationship with Vlad...
perhaps Vlad says to them...
"We could all benefit from a friendly US State Dept."

LetterOne then goes to their Advisor (Richard Burt) and say "How could we improve US Russia relations at the State Dept?"

Richard Burt then positions himself as an unpaid source of expertise on Foreign Policy and National Security -- available to any 2016 candidate.

Since Richard Burt is The chairman of the advisory council at the Center for National Interest ...
he is easily & highly recommended to provide such information by many people who were part of Trumps Campaign Team...
He then speaks at 2 dinners hosted by (then) SenJeff Sessions and provides sessions w/ "White Papers" outlining his recommended foreign policy & National Security positions

Burt then provides
A 1 page National Security Organizational Plan to a "Think Tank"....
like the Council for National Policy.

Center for National Interest =
•Manafort
•Henry Kissinger (recommended Tillerson & KT McFarland to Trump)
•Sen. Pat Roberts; Gov. John Huntsman; David McCormick
• Peter Peterson ( Steve Schwarzman's partner /Blackstone)
Plus CNI is Directed by Dmitri Simes who has ties to Putin

Council for National Policy=
Bannon
Conway
Herman Cain
Rudy Giuliani
DeVos'
Pat Robertson
Jerry Falwell
Trent Lott
John Ashcroft
Sen. Don Nickles
Elsa Prince (Eric & Betsey's Mom)

Of course Bannon is directly connected to the Mercers ($$$$) through Breitbart..,

Now, the entire Trump Campaign Circle has effectively been advised by Burt....

who is doing so in order to benefit LetterOne
and help them achieve their goal of
improving their standing with Vlad......

Bonus#1 - Russia friendly unpaid advisor to Trump circle whose advice is well accepted & he is regarded highly by all
Bonus 2 - Trump actually becomes President
Bonus 3 - Russia Friendly policy advice now driving WH policy
Bonus 4-
Vlad now likely knows exactly what "advice" was provided....

[MineralMan]

20. Thank you!

Good information.

[ismnotwasm]

21. I've read that conservative think tanks like The Heritage foundation

Have been planning for years for a moment like this--all they needed was a body capable of holding a pen and signing their name. What Putin has to do with that is beyond my ken, although, I'm sure a US disrupted and discraced by a seemingly moronic individual suits him. I think a desire for keeping Hillary out makes more sense than getting Trump in.

I think far more more than one factor is in play here. We are dealing with international shenanigans as well as home-brewed fuckery. Hillary hate NEVER made any clear sense to me. She is certainly not above criticism, but what for far too often passed for criticism was usually just so much crap. It came from the right, then some on the left joined in--repeating the same bullshit. Legitimate criticism got lost in the right wing echo. This did our party no good at all. The very odd attempts at redefining what is a progressive or liberal--sometimes claiming they are two different things--with so many trying to claim a higher moral ground, was miles away from the way practical politics actually works.

Those with the most to lose, People of Color were ignored or derided if they spoke against a prevailing narrative or held up as shining examples if they were part of it. This last is our internal political shame. And we should be ashamed.

So I guess I'm simply agreeing with you, I'm just musing about other factors

[MineralMan]

22. Thanks for your comments.

You're right. Right-wing groups like the Heritage Foundation will use Trump to push through their toxic initiatives. Their goal is to turn the United States into a right wing nation that reflects their own intolerance and hatred.

Trump will serve the needs of a number of groups, nations, and political agendas. He will serve them because he has no moral compass of his own, nor any real political ideology.

Putin will use him. The Right will use him. The Dominionists will use him. Whoever wants to change this country into a narrow-thinking nation of bigots will use him.

He is a stupid, stupid man who will do as people who can enrich him want him to do.

We made a terrible, terrible mistake in 2016. We did not ensure that we would be under competent leadership going forward. As a penance, we should all be working as hard as we can to correct our mistake. And I don't exclude myself from those who made a mistake. Mine was to assume that there was no way someone like Trump could be elected, so I was too complacent and sure of victory.

I was wrong. We all were wrong. Now, we have a very difficult job ahead of us. I hope we're up to it.

[Eliot Rosewater]

30. Which is why there is NO way they let this opportunity go without taking Medicare and Soc Sec

count on it.

[librechik]

23. Hatred of Hillary, to the point of plotting for years to destroy the US in retaliation

Trump was the easiest pawn to use. Putin knew he could disrupt the election, it didn't matter who the candidate was. He must have gotten some amusement about such a clueless buffoon becoming the "most powerful person in the world"

Highly successful strategy. They took our queen and now have us in check.

[MineralMan]

24. Trump was actually ideal. A better President for their plans could

not exist, really. That's why I wonder if he got help during the primaries, too. He's too perfect a dupe and a tool.

[librechik]

25. yes--historians will have fun digging up the clues

from the post-apocalyptic volcanic wasteland left after the Trump debacle (presumably)

[eShirl]

26. not much of a downside for Vladimir

[Sunlei]

28. bank sanctions gone. Russias gas & oil exported to the world instead of American oil/ gas.

Russias war weapons sold to the world instead of Americas.

[jumptheshadow]

35. The defeat of the U.S. and other liberal democracies

Game plan:

* Gratuitously antagonize our allies to the point where we are viewed as a rogue state
* Destroy NATO
* Destroy the U.S. as the world's leading marketplace by continuing the obliteration of its middle class and ramping up gratuitous trade wars. Without our economic clout, the rest of the world has less incentive to support us
* Destroy our reputation as a bastion of free speech, cultural exchange and upward mobility
* Provoke civil war so we aren't strong and unified enough to fight Putin's well-laid plans
* Sow confusion and misinformation so we are constantly distracted from his plot
* Cripple education, science and the concept of professionalism so there are no objective standards to challenge authoritarianism
* Lay the groundwork so nuclear war isn't seen as a last resort, while punching the guts out of our nuclear and terrorism defense capabilities
* Leave a small group of wired-in oligarchs in control of the earth's resources and a larger group of supplicant peasants as worker bees

[muriel_volestrangler]

36. That sounds about right. Destabilization of NATO helps Putin a lot

It would mean he'd be able to destabilize the current Ukrainian government more cheaply (giving the rebels anti-aircraft missile and them then shooting down the Malaysian airliner within a few hours was embarrassing), and be able to put more pressure on the Baltic states (though I doubt he'll invade).

A chaotic NATO could also break Turkey further away from Europe, which might give Russia more influence over them - highly useful if it means sending ships out of the Black Sea with no worries at all. That also helps with pipeline plans.

As many say, the lifting of sanctions is highly desirable for Putin - whether Trump was ever in the loop on that, or it's just been Manafort, Bannon etc., I don't know. I imagine it might have been safer for them to put it to him in more general terms, in case he got too explicit about it at a rally.

[JTFrog]

37. Same thing he does every night, Pinky.

[mcar]

42. +1000

for the Pinky and the Brain reference!

[Kimchijeon]

45. yep!

[mcar]

39. My take is he just wanted to damage President HRC

Beyond even what the RWNJs were doing.

This is a dog that caught the car situation.

[LisaL]

41. I don't believe that for a millisecond.

Seems rather clear he wanted Trump elected.

[mcar]

43. They were clueless about what they'd get, then

Trump is toxic and he is, thankfully, poisoning the entire party he leads.

[dalton99a]

44. The Russian government had been cultivating and helping Trump for years

[mcar]

46. Yes they have

And they succeeded beyond their wildest imaginations.

Now their creature is crashing and burning under the weight of his and his acolytes incompetence. I hope he takes the whole benighted party down with him and usher in a new era of liberal governance in the EU.

I'll bring the popcorn for that bonfire.

[alarimer]

47. Just taking the US off the world stage lets Putin do whatever he wants.

He can murder with impunity or invade any country he wants and we will not do anything. Europe might, but do they have enough clout?