Just wanted to post this.I have a been an auto workers wife for years. We are headed for recession.

[Demsrule86]

Hubs is an engineer. He retired early and now has a job that makes parts for autos but other things as well...My son went into the autos on the line ...never really liked school. He is very smart though. He was laid off in Ohio in February...car not selling. He got a different job still in Ohio about an hour away, he got laid off before his start day. I have seen this before. Autos always signal the beginning of recession...and they are the first to signal when it is over...batton down the hatches and get ready we are headed for recession with the GOP in charge God help us. Good luck.

[Cicada]

1. Decline may be limited to autos

The Great Recession killed auto sales. After awhile cars wore out so people had to replace their old cars. So zillions of cars were bought, happy days on the assembly lines. But now everyone has a car that's not that old so new car sales will decline for a few years. This may be limited to autos.

[Demsrule86]

2. No, autos saved us from the great recession.

There are layoffs coming... and not just in autos...prepare as best you can. Before 2000 ,we had rules that were written during the depression...Glass Steagall and the bucket laws in all 50 states. Until those laws were passed, there was a 'panic' every 8 to10 years or so..they didn't use the word panic in the beginning of the depression for fear of frightening people...I have seen this before. It is coming...if we had decent leadership, we might stop itor get through it with a minimum of pain, but with Trump in the White house and the repugs in charge, there is no hope of that.

[Demsrule86]

4. The first positive sign of recovery was when Obama did the 'clunkers' exchange...

I don't doubt without auto pulling us back from the brink...we would have gone over the economic cliff.

[Moostache]

7. Do not forget the trigger of the Great Recession...

It was NOT the housing market crash...THAT crash was built into the system through imprudent and fraudulent lending practices (NinJa loans? - No Income, No Job ...give them a variable teaser rate and set the bomb into motion), but what triggered the collapse was the rise in gas prices and oil speculation that had driven the cost of a gallon of gas above $5.00 in many places around the country...

We are lulled back to sleep by the recently stable prices for oil and gas - prices move seasonally and slightly up and down, but generally stay well below the $4 and $5 a gallon mark, and in many places it is at or even below $2 a gallon. When the price of gas spikes, it triggers the fear that drives a recession. Recessions are not based on any single factor, they are marked by a draw down in spending from consumers who lose confidence in their ability to afford things into the future. When gas jumps up, it hurts the average person a thousand times more than the rich or even the middle class. A rise from $2.10 a gallon to $3.00 a gallon on a car with a 20 gallon tank and and average MPG of 22 can mean a HUGE difference in the spending capability of someone on the lower end of the economic scale...but that has an enormous ripple effect...

When someone's disposable income feels like its being cut drastically by a 25% rise in the cost of gas, they notice the other price rises (in milk and dairy products or beef) a lot more and their emotions are frayed and fear sets in.

Back in the start of the Great Recession, gas prices when stratospheric in the months before the loans that seemed to have ensnared millions began to default. Part of that was coincidence with the reset of the interest rates and subsequent rise in monthly payments and part of it was the initial kick that started the downward spiral of many of the most vulnerable loans - the ones that never should have been granted in the first place, the most predatory of the bunch. I do not for one second discount the potential signals of trouble in the auto sector as a harbinger of trouble ahead...after all, we have experienced nearly 8 straight years of positive economic growth, even if the gains from this remain concentrated in the top 1%. I just hope that the banks have not cooked up another nasty little surprise for us all in addition to it!

[Demsrule86]

33. You are exactly right...there will be something...

and they are at it again.

[notdarkyet]

36. Look to recent gas riots in Mexico. They don't make enough to pay

The sharply rising gas prices. I remember the embargo..probably helped carter lose.

[Demsrule86]

76. Mexican workers for my hubs new job...are paid very little.

They took equipment and shipped it to Mexico and cut jobs too.

[nikibatts]

55. And rolling back environmental regs. in order to pump up oil is the beginning.

That's the real reason for attacking environmental regs. to free up the markets for more oil and coal. Investors will flock to oil again, prices will go up and there you have it.

[Demsrule86]

77. They will play games with the pricing and it will do just what it did last time...

bring about a recession which almost became a depression.

[Alice11111]

9. Thank you for your post, Cicada. I follow the market closely. I

don't have a lot, but I've been trading, as a hobby, for 30 years. I recemtly went to the side lines or I'm in places I can get out fast.

It amazes me that this market really wants to go up.
If DT can get through a day without several major screwups, it rallies. No other prez could do that. It rallies because of Deregulation and hoped for tax cuts. Plus, he put boatloads of the bigwigs on Wall Street on his advisory boards.

Anyway, I would keep a close eye on my nest egg. He isn't bringing in the goods that Repubs want...big productions of him signing his steak menu bound executive orders... followed by being shot down. Plus. Intetest rates are about to start flying up, which means it will cost a lot more to service the national debt. It will cost a lot more for debt ridden companies to service their own debt...energy and related. For individuala with dent too, middle class and working poor, they have a lot of credit card debt which paid for medical bills. Those indicators could change. I think you are seeing the canary start to cough though.

You are right on, from a market analysis point of view, the transportation index is one of the first and key indicators of a direction change.

Thanks again for the info.

[Demsrule86]

34. We don't have much debt thankfully.

[Alice11111]

87. But many companies do, and individuals, and they

Will be impacted by increasing intetest rates, which in turn, will impact the national debt and the economy.
.which will impact YOU, and all of us, anyway.

[Canoe52]

92. We feel the same as you, Wife and I pulled our IRAs out of mutuals a couple of weeks ago

and put them in long term savings at the bank.

Not that we had a lot (mid 5 figures) but we don't want to take a chance on donnie crashing things.

[Alice11111]

99. Yes, i would rathet not lose than miss the chance to gain

With my small amount. A very good option trader was advising talking money off, as there were just too many questions in Wash.w this Prez. Some less experienced laughed him off, but he just stood silent.

[Warpy]

40. That is unlikely. The car is the major purchase most likely to be deferred

as people start to tighten their belts and prepare for tougher times. A Republican is in office, so people do know what to expect and recession is the least of the options.

The only question is how bad it's going to be. We all know it's coming.

[Demsrule86]

52. That is true...

You make do with the old one...and when things get better autos boom because there is a pent up demand.

[nocalflea]

3. My heart goes out to your son.

Sounds alot like my brother-smart but no interest in higher educ.Had a long career as a contractor-built 2nd homes .2 yrs. ago called it quits and enrolled in college (2 yrs. left ).My brothers 59 yrs. old-you never know.

[Demsrule86]

5. Well he admitted if he doesn't get a transfer,

he has to go back to school. He is a saver and we will help him. School is a good place to wait out recession. There are 4000 laid off in Ohio and more coming.

[nocalflea]

11. When I see "4000 laid off " I think

that's 4000 families affected .And more to come... heartbreaking.

[Demsrule86]

39. There are 8000 laid off now at Gm..

4000 are temps many of then long term...they are now gone. No one knows if more people will go or what the situation will be...my son got married in October...first real crisis they faced...I am glad I can help them.

[Alice11111]

12. 4000 laid off recently? That speaks loudly.

[Demsrule86]

41. Lordstown went down a shift in February...

But the plant has been idle for over a month now. May not come back until it gets a new product. And there was a big layoff of Temp workers in September.

[MichMan]

84. One plant having layoffs does not represent the entire industry

The Lordstown situation is due to people not buying the car assembled there. Other auto plants are still doing well.

While everyone expects sales to soften, they are still at very high levels.

[Demsrule86]

86. I spoke of the plant in Ohio but there have been layoffs in other plants as well...

sales are slipping...I have seen this before. We are headed for recession.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2016/09/01/general-motors-ford-motor-fiat-chrysler-august-2016-auto-sales/89708826/

[MichMan]

88. Sales are still strong compared to previous years

If you read the article you posted, all it says is that sales have slipped from the record levels of 17.5 million set in 2015. Even if there is some softening, sales are still strong compared to previous years

[Demsrule86]

89. I spoke of one plant...but there are others

not doing well too. Google auto worker layoffs, we are heading towards recession. Car sales are softening.
I've seen it before.

[Demsrule86]

56. Thank you for your kind words. He called me sobbing.

We have been through this...in 08 we lost our college fund, and almost lost our cars and house...we owed the IRS thousands because we have to dip in retirement. We had moved twice in one year before hubs got laid off...we went to Janesville and then Ohio. I hate to see my son having to go through this...part of me wishes he will let us help him and find a new career.

[Wellstone ruled]

6. The Used Car Market Crashed last week.

Here in Vegas we have the largest used car Auction Facilities in the Nation. Yesterday we were in the area on business,holy cow,the Yards are loaded. Have not seen that many cars and various Trucks since 2008. What is compounding this is,the Rental Car Companies are rotating their Inventory for more Customer desired Products. SUV's ,and Rag Tops seems to be the new trend. BTW,UBER is raising hell with the Auto
Leasing and Sales.

[MANative]

8. I think the impact of UBER and LYFT is far greater than the auto industry...

would like to admit. I personally know a good handful of millennials who aren't buying cars - they Uber to everywhere. Read something in the last few days that Uber's CEO was touting that their service goal was to eliminate the need for people buying cars, especially in more urban areas. Sorry, don't remember exactly where I saw that.

[Wellstone ruled]

13. We have neighbors who have family acconts with Uber.

Their Car only used for out of town runs. Most of our Services are within 8-10 blocks and here in Clark County we pay mega rates for Auto Insurance as well as Registration Fees.

We just started using Uber recently and love it. All one has to do is plan your trips.

[crazycatlady]

27. IMO Uber is marketing to the wrong people

It should not be to millennials, but instead they should market to their parents, and especially their grandparents. Use Uber to take Grandma to the dr and grocery shopping.

I've used it twice (company paid) and it is no different than a taxi. I don't get the appeal (I don't have the app on my phone).

[Wellstone ruled]

35. Same for us,

Seniors should be the major target.

[Le Gaucher]

37. yes but --Uber is convenient and cheaper than Taxi

I live in the NJ suburbs of NYC .. a cab involves a 20-30 minute wait and costs about 30 dollars. After uber - I have never waited for more than 7-8 minutes and my cab fare is usually 9 -12 dollars.

Uber is single biggest reason why I have put off buying a second car.

But I havent used them after they tried to sidestep the Taxi strike (during Trump's Travel ban)

[rusty fender]

90. That is a significant savings, however

Uber's business model is to keep fares low until the taxi business completely collapses; then Uber's fares will skyrocket. They and a few other ride share companies will be the only game in town.

Uber will have their monopoly and consumers will have far fewer choices. Many people will be perfectly fine with that, but I won't be

[Demsrule86]

78. I think they don't buy cars because they can't afford cars.

What with student debt and low paying jobs, many of these kids are being screwed over.

[MANative]

94. You're not wrong in that. n/t

[Demsrule86]

42. Yeah...it is going to get rough I fear...

Good auto jobs for every one job they support 11 other jobs...from parts to mom and pop diners.

[Demsrule86]

53. I heard that...which means decent late model cars will be cheap so

those needing a car will look to that market.

[Wellstone ruled]

63. Going to get ugly real quick in the Iron Business.

Know someone on the inside and he is having a tough time making the numbers. Leaser Returns and Corporate push on unwanted styles and models is the Sales Managers nightmare.

[Demsrule86]

79. The first job my husband got w after retirement was a steel job but steel went

south about two years ago. Did you notice liar Trump is not using American steel for the pipelines and less than 50 jobs for US workers. Part of the problem for the youngins is older people can't retire...in past years, my husband would have had a decent pension and free healthcare or close to it...he would not have continued working...thus freeing up a job for a younger workers.

[A HERETIC I AM]

82. You have THE Largest in the nation? Really? How do you come to that conclusion?

I hauled cars for over ten years and have been to both the Mannheim and Adesa auctions in Vegas and trust me, they are no larger than many others across the nation. Hell, the Mannheim facility in Denver is almost 4/5's of a mile by just under a half mile in size - not a small lot by any means and the Adesa yard in Tracy, CA is a full mile from the front gate to the back fence.

I've been to really BIG auction yards. They ain't in Vegas.

And FWIW, when you see an auction yard "loaded" it is likely just the days before, during or after the large weekly sale. Come back in 3 days and see how many units are there at that time.

The "rotating" you referred to is not uncommon, it happens with remarkable regularity and those units will wash through the system in a matter of weeks. Also, when the rental car companies send units to auction, they need to be replaced, as you indicate, which is GOOD for the manufacturers.

None of this is to discount the concerns of the OP, but the used car business is a different animal from new production and does not necessarily follow the trends of plant closings, etc.

[MichMan]

85. A lot of cars coming off lease now

I heard a discussion about this just this morning on the radio. A lot of cars purchased when gas prices were higher and now coming off lease and people prefer Trucks, SUV and Crossovers. That means that used car prices have dropped while used Truck & SUV prices are strong.

[Wellstone ruled]

95. Again it is the less

desirable models. Trucks and SUV's are carrying the day. Could not believe the going prices on these rigs.

[Pharlo]

10. Baltic Dry Index supports what you are saying as well.

Record low numbers of dry goods on the seas. Last time it was similar to these numbers was during 2008.

[Demsrule86]

43. It has been about ten years...we can expect this

every 8 to 10 years until we go back to regulating banking.

[workinclasszero]

14. Here comes another Bush (Trump) depression for the working class

And all out looting and thievery for the wall street gangsters.

When will the average voter ever understand??????

[Achilleaze]

15. republicans always create recessions and depressions

deplorable

[Demsrule86]

44. The looters will be out in force...Trump's election gave them their chance.

Pres. Obama was never allowed to put any real safeguards into the system.

[Demsrule86]

54. They are back in business under Trump fleecing Main Street.

[brush]

16. As day follows night, recessions follow when repugs are in the White House. Undisputable history.

Dems pull us out of them then repug policies favoring the anti-regulation and the rich pull us back in.

[Demsrule86]

45. And then we have to bail them out...

I can't believe Trump was elected after what Bush did in 08.

[Demsrule86]

57. We really have to stop this cycle...or we are going to have a real depression.

I say get rid of the filibuster so when we get back in power we can put a glass-steagall type legislation in place and we can bring back the bucket laws which would damp down the gambling on Wall Street.

[wishstar]

17. Repub formula of lowering taxes on wealthy to cut govt programs just does not work

All this Trump budget talk about cutting Federal grant money that goes to programs like Meals on Wheels and heating assistance for seniors is hopefully dead on arrival, because all it would do is take resources from neediest individuals and causing states and local communities to have to spend more to make up difference.

Thankfully ACA is still law of land for now because repeal and replace with millions losing coverage would cause massive layoffs of health care workers and also in construction from planned expansions of hospitals and clinics. But there is still uncertainty with Repubs predicting implosion and promising repeal and replace, so their rhetoric could slow down growth in health care industry.
.
I noticed last year going around with friends looking at cars, that dealers weren't moving the new cars. I live in an area with very strong economy. Dealer gave my friend amazingly high trade-in on her old car and great deal on new car. Since then, interest rates have gone up about half a point more, making the cars more expensive. Hopefully gas prices will remain low and we won't have an international crisis.

The predicted closure of over 4,000 major dept stores and probably couple thousand smaller stores this year is bad sign too.

[Demsrule86]

46. Gas went from $2.00 per gallon to $2.40 per gallon yesterday.

This was a 40 cents increase ....why?

[pansypoo53219]

18. i see a wall steet crash coming. ekonomi theory based on beliefs, not

facts. hoover is in charge, but stupid hoover.

[Demsrule86]

47. I think so too.

My sis swears the do it because there are a bunch of retirees coming... lambs for the Wall Street wolves.

[silverweb]

19. It's coming.

[font color="navy" face="Verdana"]My dad worked for one of the Big 3 automakers for 40 years and always said the same thing: The first sign of a recession or depression coming is when cars stop selling.

It's not just the auto plants themselves, but all the smaller companies that provide parts and the dealers, as well. Cars stop selling, production slows down or stops, layoffs begin, and the ripple effect is felt nationwide.

[img][/img]

[TexasBushwhacker]

23. And if NAFTA gets scrapped or a border tax gets imposed it will get worse

If people are already not buying enough cars, they'll buy even fewer when the higher cost of Mexican imports raises sticker prices.

[Demsrule86]

58. I live in Ohio...and have been involved with autos as a big three wife for years....

And there is no doubt the rich screwed us with trade. And it hurt the country everywhere, but particularly in the rust belt...But I tried to tell my neighbors trade is complicated and yes we need to encourage manufacturing of say green stuff and other things here, but the idea that ending NAFTA will sold our problems is not true. Hillary had a manufacturing plan to encourage this in our country...pretty sure Bernie did too...and that is what we need to do...figure out how and to bring if not the old jobs back then new jobs...the money has always been in manufacturing...and now we have Hyundai and Kia in the south; they are literally killing people with unsafe plants and paying low wages too...

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2017/01/03/bride-to-be-crushed-to-death-by-car-factory-robot.html

[silverweb]

74. Agreed.

[font color="navy" face="Verdana"]We've got to clean house in 2018 if we're to correct course.

[Demsrule86]

75. We really have to clean house...or it will get really bad.

[TexasBushwhacker]

108. I heard on NPR that 80% of jobs lost during the post NAFTA period

would have been lost anyway, either to China or to improvements in technology. What is never brought up in the whole "NAFTA is bad" narrative is that exports have increased to Mexico because those factory jobs help move Mexican workers into the middle class, increasing the demand for American goods. That demand for American goods has created jobs here. It's hard to say what the net is, jobs lost vs. jobs created, but many economists think it's a small net positive.

If all those factories making goods to send to the US close down, what happens to those workers? Well, plenty of them will come to the US. At the very least, the demand for American goods would go down, thus creating job losses in the US.

[silverweb]

72. Yup.

[font color="navy" face="Verdana"]I've got a 2003 model that still runs very well with regular maintenance. Fingers crossed it lasts until we all get through this, because I couldn't afford a new car right now if I wanted to buy one.

I guess repair shops will be getting more business, at least. Maybe we'll start looking like Cuba, with our old cars held together by whatever means possible.

[Demsrule86]

48. Exactly right...there are still many jobs in autos or associated with autos.

My hubs worked for GM...son does too.

[silverweb]

71. I hope they weather this well.

[font color="navy" face="Verdana"]And you. Best wishes to you all.

[Demsrule86]

80. Thanks best wishes to you also...I feel bad for my kids...now

they are getting out into the workplace, and it is really frightening.

[silverweb]

96. Yes, it is frightening.

[font color="navy" face="Verdana"]Mine are both in good places - for now - but everyone has reason to be worried.

Our best hope is to reclaim Congress in 2018. As anger builds against this administration in particular and reTHUGs overall, I think it's very possible, but it's still going to take lots of work and a huge GOTV effort.

Maybe your kids can get involved in that, and help educate and motivate others in their age group. We need them all.

[Javaman]

20. Same thing in the construction/architecture industry...

I work for a large firm, 300 + people, the big jobs are drying up. lot's of smaller jobs coming in. this is how it started last time.

I worked through several recessions and the big recession. (luckily)

Same shit happened then that is happening now.

it's coming indeed.

[Demsrule86]

49. I am just so over this shit...caused

by the irresponsible GOP...they are so damn destructive.

[Demsrule86]

59. Housing will be down...very worried.

In O8 the GOP were on their way out;we have three years of a Repub even if Trump is impeached. I can't imagine he can handle this...they will loot this country along with the rest of them.

[silverweb]

73. I hope you work through this one, too.

[font color="navy" face="Verdana"]Good luck to you and your firm.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

21. Trump Slump coming. Tourism industry was the bleeding edge. Takes time to ripple through economy.

A month ago, tourism bookings or searches (sorry, not sure which) were down over 6% already.

Tour operators won't need as many vehicles and can't afford to buy as many family cars.

So it goes.

[mtngirl47]

26. I own a tourist business in the Smokies

January to March have been good...but future reservations are lagging behind last year--but could be a result of the fires here last fall--everyone thinks we burned down.

Already tightening the belt...no major purchases or projects until I see what's up.

Gas prices at Memorial Day and occupancy will predict the summer months travel.

I knew electing Trump would cause a damn recession. The last recession almost killed me and as I move closer to 60, just don't want to freaking go through it again.

[Demsrule86]

60. I know how you feel...

I am sick of it...I knew Trump would damage the economy. I didn't realize he would do it so quickly...this is not Pres. Obama this is all Trump and the GOP who can't govern effectively and have economic policies guaranteed to fail.

[Demsrule86]

50. Tourism...is where people rent cars ...

and rental agents buy cars...the fleet sales have dried up.

[elmac]

22. Don't let the Dow fool you

we are heading for another crash, consumer spending has hit the skids, housing bubble also. It won't be nice like before but baaaaaaad.

[TexasBushwhacker]

24. Just from a cyclical standpoint, we are due for a correction

You can't have 7 years of growth without expecting a downturn sooner rather than later, no matter who's in the driver's seat.

[Demsrule86]

61. Wall Street is gamblers club and it's success does not do much

for Main Street.

[Thekaspervote]

25. Yes, the travel industry will s taking it on the chin!

We flew from the Midwest to Phoenix, az last week on alligiant. The flights are always full! The plane was maybe two thirds full. I agree, it's coming!

[crazycatlady]

30. foreign travel to the US is down dramatically

[Demsrule86]

62. It didn't have to be this way...

The layoffs in GM were announced the day after Trump won.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

28. The other industry to watch is the airlines.

They are one of the canaries in the coal mine; when the economy starts to slide people do less discretionary traveling. It could be even worse this time as Trump is turning the US into an international pariah that nobody wants to visit even if they're not Muslims I had some airline stock, which had been doing well; I decided to sell it anyhow because I figured it would start to tank. Sure enough, it's gone down a fair bit since SCROTUS' inauguration. Watch that sector.

[Demsrule86]

64. Someone just posted about Alegiant ...they are cheaper than some and usually

full...she said only 2/3 full when she flew recently.

[underpants]

29. Yikes

Thanks for the tip

[MFM008]

31. My brother follows financial

Markets and says it will be like 2008 soon.

[Demsrule86]

65. I hope I am wrong and your brother too...but I think that is accurate...

It is coming.

[Dawson Leery]

98. That bad?

Donnie has allowed the finance charlatans to sell and invest in whatever they want, still I expect a mini bubble will take some time to build.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

32. Mexico Autos Output Soars as Trump Administration Settles In

Cross-posted in the Economy Group.

Access the article via the author's Twitter feed to beat TWSJ.'s paywall.

Looks like there is some work to do on the plan for Made in America car lots

Link to tweet

Mexico Autos Output Soars as Trump Administration Settles In

Mexico gains considerable regional share as production in the U.S. and Canada sags

By John D. Stoll

Updated March 27, 2017 12:33 p.m. ET

The prospect of lowering the U.S. auto industry’s reliance on “Made in Mexico” became thornier during the Trump administration’s early days, as the number of popular pickups and SUVs flooding in from south of the border rose sharply in January and February. ... Mexico’s share of North American automotive production exceeded 20% through two months, gaining considerable regional share amid falling output in the U.S. and Canada over the same period. Analysts expect Mexico’s role in the North American Free Trade Agreement zone to grow as most auto makers have capacity increases planned for Mexico.

Mexico’s momentum comes early in the tenure of a Trump administration vowing to take actions aimed at slowing car and truck imports coming to the U.S., with specific emphasis on products made in Mexico. While vehicle imports from some major markets—including Canada—declined in January compared with the same period a year earlier, the flow of Mexican-made vehicles increased 10%, according to U.S. trade data.

Mexico registered an unexpected trade surplus in February as growth in exports outpaced that of imports, thanks to higher oil prices and strong exports of manufactured goods. Auto exports, increasing 4.9%, were a contributing factor.

The data, published by WardsAuto.com, reveals General Motors Co., Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV, Nissan Motor Co. and Volkswagen AG scheduled significantly more Mexican light-truck production over the period, helping the country’s auto plants post output increases at a time when the wider North American auto industry is paring back. Many plants in the U.S. and Canada have dialed back production of less popular passenger cars, such as the Chevrolet Malibu, resulting in layoffs at certain factories.
....

Write to John D. Stoll at [e-mail]

Appeared in the Mar. 28, 2017, print edition as 'Mexico’s Vehicle Output Climbs.'

[Demsrule86]

66. That is a real sore subject...

Mexico makes the hatchback model of the auto made here in Ohio...and just before the layoff , some were sold here.

[Jimbo S]

38. I work Tier II

I know the off-road stuff has been down the last year or so. The passenger vehicles have been steady for us. The steel mills slumped a bit two summers ago but have stabilized.

I agree the auto industry is one of the three barometers of the economy. I'll keep your post in mind.

[Demsrule86]

67. My son is tier II also...

He is hopeful he can get in at Tennessee...as they still have Temp workers there...it will be a while before we know...couple of months...no one will be moved during that time.

[roamer65]

51. The economic figure to follow is the "velocity of money".

Velocity of Money is basically a measurement of how fast a dollar changes hands. Money has to "move" in order to generate economic activity. The faster a dollar "moves", the faster the economy grows.

It took a HUUUGE drop after 2008 and still has not recovered.

Even with the near quadrupling of the M1 money supply from $900BLN to $3.2TLN, the velocity of money measurement still has not recovered.

If it doesn't, we are still in for a rough ride.

[Demsrule86]

68. I always thought if we had true recovery from 08, we would have some

inflation...there is no inflation which indicates we are still stuck in a deflationary economy...

[roamer65]

93. There is still inflation.

Just not as high as we saw pre-2008. We are seeing more "disinflation" than "deflation". It didn't go to outright deflation due to the massive quantitative easing.

[raccoon]

103. There is no inflation? Then how come my rent and groceries keep going up?

Who am I going to believe, government stats or my lying eyes?

[Demsrule86]

104. We have been in a deflationary cycle since 2008 and part of 2007.

We have been in a deflationary cycle since 2008 mostly.Given the amount of money the Fed has pumped in that is somewhat frightening...while somethings have indeed gone up that has more to do with raising prices in order profit...all deflationary means is things depreciate...for example housing in much of the US has not recovered or increased in value, And Japan for at least a decade,they have been in a deflationary cycle...now this year it looked like it would finally end. In fact they raised the interest rate. However, it is a projection and it doesn't look like it will happen...not with Drumpt in my opinion. Also, the interest rate was raised in part so they have something they can use if things go south which it looks like they will...I hope I am wrong.


"Annual inflation for the 12 months ending in February 2017 was 2.74% up from 2.50% in January and 2.07% in December 2016. The annual cyclical low was 0.84% in July 2016. The longer term cyclical low of -0.20% was in April of 2015.

Although this may look like the beginning of a longer upward trend it is still possible that it is simply a function of the short-term cyclical rise since inflation is still below the upper limit of the downward trend channel. Looking back we see that January and February 2016 were both very low on a historical basis which removed 2 major components of the annual inflation rate for the entire year of 2016, which kept a lid on inflation for the entire year."

https://inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation/AnnualInflation.asp

[Xolodno]

69. Box Industry is often a tell tale sign....

If you know someone in that line of work, they can often tell you they know something is up.

But, we are coming due for a correction. I suspect it will be mild as 45 hasn't had enough time to do any damage structurally. I wouldn't be surprised they also use it to their advantage for dropping taxes and increased spending.

[Demsrule86]

70. I hope you are right.

[Calculating]

81. Are you sure it's not just saturation?

Seems like there are plenty of cars out there right now, and most people who want one already have one. Give it a few years and see if demand for cars picks back up as the ones on the road get reduced through wear and collisions.

[samplegirl]

83. Let me guess this will be the Obama Recession

Awful I know as I to live in Ohio and I also blame the idiots in Ohio that voted Trump!!!
I just lost my job!

[Hekate]

91. Well damn. Thanks for the heads-up, and good luck to your son.

[doc03]

97. Besides the auto industry retail stores have been dropping like flies

for the last few weeks, Macys, Kmart, Radio Shack, Penney's, HH Gregg, Staples, Game Stop, Sears,
Elder Bearman and The Gap. Our local mall looks liked a ghost town the last few weeks.

[Oneironaut]

100. You can feel it in the air. A correction is coming, and probably a recession.

My fear, though, is that Trump overreacts and does something stupid, making it 100x worse than it needs to be. An example of this would be blaming the closing stores on the Chinese and imposing a tariff on them. China retaliates, and a trade war starts. At least Obama made good decisions (and dare I say Bush was at least somewhat trustworthy).

[elleng]

101. 'recession with the GOP in charge'

Nothing new here.

[Demsrule86]

105. Trump is the worst of the lot...thus it is terrifying.

[elleng]

106. UTTERLY terrifying.

[Cha]

102. Thank you for telling us, Demsrule!

[Orrex]

107. If that's true, then I feel bad for Syria and North Korea

[malaise]

109. K & R

Link to today's 98,000 jobs' report