Democrats Could Retake the House In 2018

[applegrove]

https://politicalwire.com/2017/03/29/democrats-retake-house-2018/

SNIP.............


Josh Kraushaar: “Demo­crats now have a real­ist­ic shot at re­tak­ing the House in 2018. Each of the past three midterm elec­tions have swung wildly against the party in power—re­flect­ive of the long­stand­ing dis­sat­is­fac­tion of voters to­wards polit­ic­al lead­er­ship, no mat­ter who’s in charge. Trump’s job ap­prov­al rat­ing is hov­er­ing around 40 per­cent, a tox­ic level for the dozens of Re­pub­lic­ans run­ning for reelec­tion in swing dis­tricts. Re­pub­lic­ans would be fool­ish to as­sume that Pres­id­ent Obama’s co­ali­tion of mil­len­ni­als and non­white voters—many of whom stayed home in past midterm elec­tions—re­mains dis­en­gaged giv­en their aver­sion to Trump.”

“Polit­ic­ally speak­ing, the health care bill couldn’t have been more dam­aging for Re­pub­lic­ans. In a dis­cip­lined Con­gress, safe-seat Re­pub­lic­ans would be more will­ing to take risky votes so those in com­pet­it­ive seats could main­tain some in­de­pend­ence from the party. But this time, hard-line con­ser­vat­ives in the Free­dom Caucus de­clared their un­stint­ing op­pos­i­tion early on, for­cing some vul­ner­able Re­pub­lic­ans to go on re­cord in sup­port of the un­pop­u­lar le­gis­la­tion—which didn’t even come to a vote. Adding in­sult to in­jury, Trump bragged on Twit­ter that the health care ex­changes would col­lapse as a res­ult of his in­ac­tion—the worst pos­sible mes­sage to send to any­one who viewed Trump as a can-do ex­ec­ut­ive.”

“The end res­ult is the worst of all worlds: a party that can’t get things done, a pres­ident with de­clin­ing job-ap­prov­al num­bers, swing-dis­trict mem­bers flushed out, and the base dis­il­lu­sioned.”

Stuart Rothenberg says “the last two months have only confirmed my earlier assessment that the House will see a real fight for control next year.”


.............SNIP

[WePurrsevere]

1. We need to address and fix gerrymandering....

Although if they keep going as they have been even the more staunch Republicans may not vote for a GOP candidate.

[brooklynite]

8. ...which means you have to focus on Gov, AG and SecState races as well

[WePurrsevere]

17. Yes, I absolutely agree. nt

[BadgerMom]

19. And judicially

The pressure from the courts must continue. A number of courts have ruled against ridiculously drawn, gerrymandered districts in a few states because the maps harm voting rights. Whatever entities bring these suits must be supported.

[IronLionZion]

16. How?

We need to win state legislatures in 2018 and 2020 in order to not be completely wiped off the map after the next census.

One thing that is ruining us is the fact that our people are increasingly concentrated in cities. It's a little too easy to just draw a circle around the city and have it be the one blue district surrounded by lots of rural red ones.

[WePurrsevere]

18. It may be that the one good thing that...

Trump and the inept GOP give us is the chance to fix this easier than otherwise. If you piss enough voters off gerrymandered districts don't help nearly as much.

We definitely need to focus on state races to help. Also, if you haven't heard about it yet, Obama and Holder are working on fixing it too.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/11/us/eric-holder-to-lead-democrats-attack-on-republican-gerrymandering.html?_r=0

[Gothmog]

2. If Trump keeps on being an idiot, the House is in play

[Bleacher Creature]

3. November 2018 is a LONG ways away.

I mean that in the sense that so much can and will happen between now and then.

That said, I'm liking our chances, and that's even with the problem of gerrymandering.

[Stallion]

4. I've Lost a Lot of Confidence in Democrats Turning Out for Off Year Elections

...hope I'm wrong

[DemocraticSocialist8]

5. That's the thing, turnout is incredibly important

because it's always low for Republicans and Dems...so if the Dems can get a midterm surge, we can BEGIN to turn the tide. We can at least make sure Trump passes no crazy pieces of legislation his last 2 years in office. But turning the tide completely will be a multi-election process. 2020 is the big one...but we have to continue into the 2022 midterms. That's why I think Congress is going to pass the worst of their legislation this year and maybe next year. But even next year they'd have to watch out because many of them will be up for re-election.

[BumRushDaShow]

6. We did it in 2006

after not having been in control of the House since 1994. It IS do-able but the key here would be sustaining it (where we lost it again in 2010).

[ginnyinWI]

7. remember the Womens' March.

That is where the country is.

That was the first chance the people had to voice their disapproval since the election happened. They are all still out there and can be moved to vote.

The right has settle down to wait for wonderful things to happen under this President. When they don't, they will be more and more disillusioned and apathetic. The energy will be on the left!

[IronLionZion]

15. Don't just hope

Make it so!

[Orsino]

9. If we can't retake the House in 2018, we never will...

...barring some extreme not-sucking by Congressional Republicans and a president.

[mountain grammy]

10. +1000

[Wounded Bear]

11. I like our chances...

I want to add a note about gerrymandering. I know there are Dem-leaning voters out there in Trump-land. Our problem has been turnout, as was mentioned above. A secondary problem has been a lack of Dem candidates. We can't win elections we don't even run in.

So, motivation, generous portions of which have been served up through this last election cycle and the first two months of the current admin and congress.

Yes, we need to maintain the current enthusiasm for politics in general. High turnout traditionally leads to more Dems in office. We need to do that all up and down the tickets. With good turnout, we can override gerrymandering all acros the country. Gerrymandering is based on past voting behaviors. A large influx of new voters will counter that. We need to fix the 30% turnout we typically get in mid-terms.

[murielm99]

13. The grassroots organizations are producing candidates,

even in red districts. There are two Democrats running for Congress in my bright red district. They will be on the primary ballot. All too often, it is "No Candidate Filed."

I have spent years at GOTV. It can be so frustrating. Many times, they tell me they are going to vote, then they "forget."

[Wounded Bear]

14. Yes, very promising signs...

[LakeArenal]

12. No electorial college, paper ballots, and dye my finger blue..m*3@+F

[TeamPooka]

20. If enough moderate Repubs turn against Trump by voting against his policies we may get stopped.