19 House Races Shift Toward Democrats

[DonViejo]

List of competitive seats grows amid shifts against president’s party

Posted May 24, 2017 5:04 AM
Nathan L. Gonzales
@Nathan L. Gonzales

The midterm elections are still nearly a year and a half away, and the political dynamics could yet change, but we shouldn’t ignore the fact that history and the current environment are merging together for a potentially great set of elections for Democrats in November 2018.

The president’s party has lost House seats in 18 of the last 20 midterm elections, and it’s lost an average of 33 seats in those 18 elections. Democrats need to gain 24 seats in order to take back the majority.

President Donald Trump’s job approval rating is slumping at 40 percent, according to the latest RealClearPolitics average, while 55 percent disapprove of the job he is going. That’s not good news for GOP candidates, considering that midterms are often a referendum on the president’s performance and Trump’s name won’t appear on the ballot. And Democrats also appear to have an edge in enthusiasm. From protest marches after inauguration to confrontational town halls with GOP members, Democratic candidates are overperforming in special elections. And with a 30-year-old former Capitol Hill staffer raising over $20 million in just a few months, Democrats are anxious for the next fight.

Of course, there is plenty of time for the political climate to change, but our http://data.rollcall.com/electionguide/%E2%80%9C" target="_blank">Inside Elections ratings need to reflect the reality that Democrats have more takeover opportunities than if this was shaping up to be a status quo election, or certainly more opportunities than if Hillary Clinton had been in the White House.

http://data.rollcall.com/electionguide/%E2%80%9C" target="_blank">We’ve changed our ratings in 19 races, including adding nine GOP-held seats to the list of competitive races and dropping one Democratic seat (Rep. Brad Schneider of Illinois’ 10th District) after the Republicans’ best potential candidate declined to run.

- See more at: http://www.rollcall.com/news/gonzales/needs-video-19-house-races-shift-toward-democrats#sthash.Yiaw6qpr.PL3FVzfF.dpuf

[Brother Buzz]

1. There's little low hanging fruit left in California

But I would be tickled pink (I mean, blue) if California sends four new Democratic Congress members to Washington in 2017.