Mueller Investigation Predictions

[NCTraveler]

As we sit today, what do you predict as the outcome of the Mueller investigation.

1) While a Special Council is put forth to look at criminal matters, not counterintelligence, I believe the manner in which the Mueller investigation came about the biggest news will be related more to counterintelligence. It will have to be a part of the report as a reason for going to such depth.

I think it will outline point by point as to how the Russians impacted our election. It will truly put the outcome of the election into question and be something that no one will be able to gloss over. It will not nullify, create a constitutional crisis, or give any credence to some kind of "re-do". I will state why in a minute.

Interestingly enough, I think this will be the most impactful part of the investigation even though it isn't the focus. The focus is on criminality.

2) A couple of players might see jail-time. I believe that obstruction might be the charges and some might even be brought up for treason. The difficulty of the treason charge is why I think we might be seeing some big name prosecutors being brought onboard. Mueller is using their guidance when it comes to provable charges to recommend.

Manafort and Flynn might be in some really deep shit. Their actions will have started before the Trump campaign and continued through it but be legally viewed as the acts of individuals. Kushner and some others will get their hands slapped for omitting information on reports. The law does not apply equally to all people.

3) Trump walks away simply looking bad. Looking like an ignorant rube. Nothing new for him. This is also why the election will stand as-is. We have a sitting President and it will stay that way.

I truly think this investigation will call into question the results of the election. As a secondary matter, that will be the explosive part. The only reason it will even be a part of it is because of how the Special Council came to be. Mueller is going to feel he has to outline it as a reason for the investigstions importance.


Now the kicker. What is congress going to do. It is well known that Trump is and has been aware of these facts. While aware, he has been dismissing it. He has been doing that on a regular basis. A sitting President, fully aware of extreme election tampering by Russia, and he has been dismissing it. That alone is not a crime without additional and direct connections to Trump himself. Congress won't be able to just write that off after the investigation concludes.

Have some fun. What's your prediction?

[Voltaire2]

1. there is no case for treason unless they were meeting with al qaeda or isis.

If there is an obstruction finding then Trump is implicated. But any federal charges are irrelevant if there isn't an impeachment.

[NCTraveler]

5. From the wording of it I believe it could be sent to a court.

For giving aid and comfort to an enemy. I do understand it's historical context. I think arguments can be made. Especially when both countries have occupied the same war zone, at the same time, on opposing sides of the conflict. As has recently happened with us and Russia.

18 U.S. Code § 2381 - Treason

"United States, levies war against them or adheres to their enemies, giving them aid and comfort within the United States or elsewhere, is guilty of treason and shall suffer death, or shall be imprisoned not less than five years and fined under this title but not less than $10,000; and shall be incapable of holding any office under the United States."

[Voltaire2]

20. We are not at war with Russia.

"Enemies" has always been interpreted to mean nations we are at war with. Treason cases have been either of the Tokyo Rose variety, where we were at war with another state, or the armed insurrection variety.

Neither applies to Trump.

[NCTraveler]

23. A lot of interpretations change over time.

Russia being an "enemy" has been established through the media, recent Presidential administrations and congress. Additionally, we have been in the same war zone, taking part in military actions, on opposing sides.

[Voltaire2]

24. Not really the way the legal system works.

But whatever. Let me know when Twitler gets charged with Treason.

[NCTraveler]

26. It's very much how the legal system works.

To think precedent can't be reviewed is to ignore the system.

When in the world did I say he was getting charged with Treason? Makes a little more sense now.

[former9thward]

48. Russia takes our astronauts into space.

An "enemy" does that? Your definition of "enemy" is certainly nothing I have ever heard. There will be no treason charges coming out of this investigation.

[Voltaire2]

55. "When in the world did I say he was getting charged with Treason?" - in your op.

" I believe that obstruction might be the charges and some might even be brought up for treason. "

Like I said, a treason charge would be a stunning disregard for more than 200 years of precedent, and it would ignore the clear intent of the constitution. It was precisely because treason was used for all sorts of nonsense that it is the only crime explicitly defined in the constitution, and it is defined to be very limited. "We don't like the Russians" does not rise to the level of what the constitution meant by "Enemies". "We are at war with Russia" would.

We do normal business every day with Russia, with its government, with its citizens. I don't think you've thought this through.

[sharedvalues]

33. Espionage is a crime. This is going to be espionage.

[Voltaire2]

57. Yes sure if there is espionage that would be a crime.

But as I have pointed out in the past, it really is unlikely that actual espionage was involved. To be more specific, it is not likely that anyone on the Trump campaign team or the transition team knowingly passed classified information to Russian agents. Why would they do that? Both the Trump campaign and the Russians had a shared interest in defeating Clinton. No need to do something as blindingly stupid as that. But who knows. One can always hope.

[sharedvalues]

60. A general internet view on espionage offenses

http://criminal.findlaw.com/criminal-charges/espionage.html

Generally, an espionage conviction requires U.S. prosecutors to prove the following elements:

Information transmitted is classified government information or relates to national defense ; and
The accused acted with the intent or reason to believe the information will harm the United States or help a foreign nation (not necessarily an "enemy" of the United States); and
There was a willful communication, transfer, or receipt of the information; or
There was an overt act in furtherance of a conspiracy to commit espionage.
Furthermore, it is not necessary for the act in question to actually cause any harm to the United States (or help any foreign nations), nor does the government have to prove that the disclosed information actually was closely held and a threat to national security. So if the accused were to leak or share information that is actually incorrect or otherwise not a threat to national security, they still could be convicted if all other elements are proven.

[sharedvalues]

61. Also remember Mueller has hired a LOT of prosecutors and appellate attys

That's what you have prosecutors and appellate attys for - to read the statutes and case law and determine what crimes the actions fall under.

[H2O Man]

58. Possibly.

Manafort and Flynn could possibly be charged with espionage.

But the overall investigation is for RICO violations.

[lapucelle]

36. But the Constitution sets very high

and extremely specific necessary conditions for conviction:

"No person shall be convicted of treason unless on the testimony of two witnesses to the same overt act, or on confession in open court."

[NCTraveler]

43. Very high standard to meet. Nt

[lapucelle]

45. Being the buffoon that he is,

I wouldn't put it past Trump to accidentally confess in open court.

[NCTraveler]

46. In a tweet on his way to court.

I don't think he would do well on the stand in any instance. Honesty isn't his thing.

[lapucelle]

62. Your prediction came true!

Junior accidentally confesses in a tweet!

[Loki Liesmith]

2. Kushner sees a jail cell

[FM123]

3. "the focus is on criminality"

I think Trump will resign when finally faced with evidence of criminal wrongdoing and Pence pardons him afterwards. He would rather be a quitter than a loser.

[Jimbo101]

4. rig up a trap door under Trump - and a button with "do not touch" on Pence's desk

[NCTraveler]

6. .

[Leghorn21]

16. Aw, genius, Jimbo!!

[GallopingGhost]

59. lmao

Oh, chute!

[FigTree]

7. The financial aspect is missing.

There is only one reason why the tax returns have been held no matter what. They at least hint at, and likely show, connections between the shady Russian power and the real-estate guy. If it was something he could have talked away, they would have been released long ago. Also, as always in such case, nothing comes out until a form of stick begins to be used. No telling who is going to open up, although the very nature of these individuals, essentially devoid of any principles, would suggest that there should be many candidates.

[emulatorloo]

9. +1

[NCTraveler]

10. I think he doesn't release his taxes for many reasons.

He doesn't want people to see he is living off credit. He doesn't want people to see all of the Russian loans he holds. Mainly the first part.

What you state isn't illegal. It does help to paint a narrative he doesn't want.

[FigTree]

21. Agreed.

The magnitude of the debt also is meaningful. Past a certain number of billions, this is not just credit. It becomes a handle. That's how the KGB works. If that point is reached, and I tend to believe it has, even minor or circumstantial evidence of a connection between the financial aspect and the political aspect ( e.g. Kushner, Manafort) become enough to indicate collusion. And to have the rats swim away as far and fast as they can.

[bettyellen]

47. The money laundering is why it's bigger than just debt to Russia...

He's being blackmailed.

[sharedvalues]

35. Yes. And Schneiderman is going to pursue money laundering

[emulatorloo]

8. I believe they will find financial crimes committed by Trump. Involving Russian mob

Russian oligarchs. He has laundered money for Russian mobsters in the past.

[NCTraveler]

11. If Trump goes down, this will be it. Nt

[Achilleaze]

14. the russian republican LAUNDRY for dirty money

Overseen by the republican Draft-Dodger-in-Chief, Comrade Casino.

[FM123]

15. Yes, financial crimes involving Russian money!

[2bestill]

12. Regarding Mueller's current Team of lawyers

I believe Mueller has assembled this particular team because the real possibility of arguing in front of the Supreme Court. It won't be for treason charges but to determine once and for all if a sitting President can be indicted on charges, not just impeached. To date the debate of this issue remains murky at best. Trump and his family will face state charges and will see real punishment out of NY and possibly FL. The best Dems can hope for is a clear explanation from Mueller on how Russia and Trump helped each other that also implicates Pence. With Pence anywhere near a possible candidate in 2020, Trump and Assoc. will walk as I am sure this is the deal that was made early on. It's important to snag Pence in all of this and for Dems to win the house in 2018 to help expedite an impeachment and present an amazing candidate to the US and the World for 2020.

[Glimmer of Hope]

53. So many good points! Glad you found your way here.

[MedusaX]

13. Result will be a combination of Espionage/ RICO indictments served via strategic tag team of NYAG &

Meuller....

And *45's little G20 Cyber Security alliance with Vlad has just sped up the process....
As TeamMueller must act before Vlad is given full access to the most critical aspects of our cyber security / network infrastructure.

[NCTraveler]

18. This is what brought me to my belief that Trump walks.

Mueller has a pretty good idea at this point. His new hires lead me to believe that. These hires are more about determining charges. If Trump is on the list, it would be gross neglect for Mueller to not move now. My thoughts here hinge on my beliefs that he is wrapping up the investigation.

[Leghorn21]

17. Ain't somebody somewhere got recordings of the wrong people having convos with the

other wrong people? Well, that remains to be seen, eh.

Meanwhile, RICO, apparently, is in play - so I hear - yes, Capone/tax evasion and such.

All hail NY AG Eric Schneiderman, Robert S. Mueller III, and FL AG Pam Bondi!
(okay, 2 out of 3)

[NCTraveler]

19. I believe Mueller would refer that aspect..

To a different investigation. I don't think he will be spearheading it.

[Leghorn21]

22. Oh. Well...damn. Who then will present these ethereal recordings to the world, NC?

Honest (anxious) question!!

Thank you!

[NCTraveler]

25. I was referring to this.

"Capone/tax evasion and such."

He would most likely refer it to the FBI outside of his Special Council. I still think his scope is more narrow than many others. That doesn't mean he isn't referring findings he believes to be outside of his scope. Possibly to state AG's as well.

I think that aspect bites him in the ass down the road.

[Leghorn21]

28. Oh, copy that, NC! Many thanks again for your replies here!! eom

[wryter2000]

27. Wild-assed prediction here

Trump will resign in exchange for immunity from prosecution for obstruction charges. He's clearly guilty of that based on what he said about getting rid of the "nut job" director of the FBI. Pence will become President and lose in 2020.

[NCTraveler]

30. I don't think it's all that wild.

👍🏼

The only reason I didn't go there is becuase the law doesn't apply equally. I agree with you about the Comey aspect. I would need to read the statute for obstuction as I have admittedly not done so.

[2bestill]

32. more prediction

Trump will be forced to resign 15-18 months prior to Nov/2020 because GOP donor $ will force a GOP congress to threaten to impeach him if he doesn't go quietly. Even if DEMS win the house in 2018 the same thing will happen because they don't want to taint Pence or other Koch operatives that might get implicated. They will want Trump to go away with a pithy retort of "I'm so popular and big and too much of a distraction for this role".

It will be NY/AG that will take down parts of his empire and show the Trump name for all that it is. It's important to keep an eye on Bondi in FL - she is suppose to be up for a Trump admin post (can't remember exactly). If Dems are in a stronger position in 2018 then FL/AG/FBI could do serious harm to the Trump dynasty.

I don't think Pence will win in 2020 but Dems have to be united and stop any and all infighting. Not to mention, we have to get off the internet and go vote for each and every election in our respective districts and states.

[exboyfil]

29. The Reagan I didn't know nothing defense

The poor man's health was ruined by the relentless press.

He only wanted to help the little people, but he was defeated by the swamp creatures.

Take it to the bank. It will be his get out of jail free card.

[Gothmog]

31. You do not assemble this much legal talent without intending to indict someone

Mueller has assembled an impressive team. I have trouble believing that there will not be some indictments and trials

[NCTraveler]

34. I mentioned that I think there will be.

I also think some of his new hires are simply there to help understand how cases will be made. Figuring out actual charges to recommend. It's not as easy as many think. Determining charges takes time and expertise.

[MiddleClass]

37. What started as a tampering of election investigation

Will end up as a foreign corruption $$involvement in '16 election and Trump finances, Bayrock, and a few of the shady Russian oligarchs investment firms. Treason won't come near this is its to hard to prove. Foreign corruption act, if it applies to foreign corruption $$invested in the US, by way of the Cyprus + Russian Bank, is supposed to be very easily to prove. Your guilty if your partner overseas is found guilty of corruption , whether you knew at the time or not. Like your guilty of going through a red light, even if you swear it was green when you went to the box. Think, Mueller hired a Russian speaking expert on corruption prosecutor, I wonder why. He also hired a corporate corruption specialist prosecutor, why? Tell tale signs, of what they're going for.

My assumption is Paul Manafort, Mike Flynn will turn state's evidence for the case. I believe Jared Kushner, the Trump Buffalo Bills, Mister Satler, and maybe the Cheedo himself (though that will have to wait until impeachment/leaves office)

[kennetha]

38. Kushner, Maniford, Flynn indicted for espionage, money laundering, conspiracy to do the same.

Trump -- impeached and removed from office for obstruction of Justice, violation of oath to faithfully execute and protect and defend, violation of emoluments clause, possibly espionage.

Trump refuses to go quietly. Declared unfit under 25th Amendment.

Pence become VP, pardons all concerned, on the condition that Trump be confined to a mental institution.

Fox News spins outcome as a vindication of all things Republican, shifting their propaganda operation from Trump -- who they now diss nightly -- to the heroic Mike Pence, the savior of American Democracy.

[lunatica]

41. I predict that like Nixon the real impacts will come after the fact

A new Congress will make laws that will intend to keep this from happening again.

And it will go down in history in the same way Watergate did. I have no idea what the name will be. Maybe Trump Era. As in 40 years from now whole new generations will be hearing the phrase "Trump Era" as an actual thing meaning almost complete corruption in Washington DC. Nixon's Watergate may even be forgotten at that time. It will be remembered by historians and history buffs only.

[H2O Man]

42. Interesting.

First, while the literal meaning of the word "treason" applies here, the legal meaning does not. There is a bit less than zero chance of anyone being charged with treason. A simple study of case law makes that absolutely clear.

"Counter intelligence" is, of course, a significant factor. Among the intelligence agencies, it is the duty of the FBI to investigate this. As they are! And that investigation is currently being conducted in the classic context of a RICO case -- which by definition involves both individuals and one or more groups.

The FBI's counter intelligence investigation will definitely identify crimes, and thus criminals.

[davsand]

44. I predict a couple convictions and a couple deals in return for testimony.

I think there will be a couple "resignations" tendered in the Whitehouse as part of the deals made by the band of defense attorneys, and I predict a whole bunch of "I'm not running again because ----insert variations of transparent reason here----" at the Congressional level.

I honestly can't decide if I think the orange anus actually resigns "for health reasons" (actually forced in return for letting his kids off charges, for not impeaching him, for not using the 25th "incompetency clause" in the Constitution or for letting him keep his cash) or if I think he's gonna suffer a sudden "unexpected" (assisted by some black ops sociopath employed by somebody unidentified) heart attack in the residence. He's been playing in some pretty dirty circles and has made enemies of some really dangerous entities, I think it sounds more far fetched than it really is.


YMMV


Laura

[Generic Brad]

49. I fear Fitzmas Redux

One person will fall on their sword, take the brunt of the blame, and it will be business as usual for the rest.

[NCTraveler]

52. This.

But I do think it will wake some people up. The election tampering part.

[winstars]

54. + 1,000,000,000

[vlyons]

50. my predictions

Money laundering will be as big as collusion with the Russians. Definitely obstruction of justice will be included.

[USALiberal]

51. Prediction, Trump is untouchable! n/t

[marylandblue]

56. Trump will be indicted under RICO

RICO was designed to catch the crime bosses who always pretended they didn't know what their underlings were doing. RICO makes it a crime to work for an organization that commits crimes. It doesn't matter if you knew or just should have known what they were doing.

The Supreme Court will decide if a sitting President can be indicted. I believe they will decide he can be. There is no case in American history where a court decided that any person was above the law. The only people in all of world history who were considered above the law were kings and emperors. And no court is going to crown him Donald I.

[CK_John]

63. IMO, We will find out DT45 has no money and owes billions to Russia and China.

He will then pull his health problem and get a pardon from VP Pense and he will pardon his family and leave.

And everybody will say he can't do that after he done that.