We keep hearing about Trump needing to hold his base -- but how big is his base?

[Samantha]

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Trump received the votes of just 26 percent of the voter eligible population, and Clinton received 26 percent as well. A whopping 48 percent voted for neither.

It appears to me Trump can hold onto every single voter who supported him in the 2016 election and still get his posterior kicked by the right opponent. I use those last two words because I am sure we all as individuals have our own idea just who that opponent should be. Not wanting to distract from the essence of this thread by generating heated discussions over who should take him on, I ask you to just reflect on the fact that it appears a myriad of contenders could throw him onto the mat with ease....

And just that thought will help me sleep better at night.

Sam

chart from https://mises.org/blog/26-percent-eligible-voters-voted-trump

[ThoughtCriminal]

1. There's another problem will polling Trump voters

The number of people who will admit voting for him - even to anonymous pollsters - ma also be shrinking. That would tend to create the impression that his supporters are sticking with him no matter what.

There are ways to adjust for this, but I have not seen it really addressed when reporting on the polling.

[Samantha]

2. Thanks for posting on my thread -- I just have one question

Don't you agree that we hear this so often that it seems as though they are trying to convince us his base is so significant, if he just holds it, he can win re-election?

I had read so many times from different sources that 47 percent of the people who voted, left the selection of a Presidential choice blank but skipped down to vote down ballot. And that is why I finally looked this up. I am so tired of hearing about Trump's base, I needed to find the answer to the question just how big is that base. 26 percent of the eligible voters is not an impressive amount. If he lasts through the end of this first term (which I doubt he will), in order to win that second term, he and his friends will truly have to hone their "skills" at controlling the results....

Sam

[Rhiannon12866]

3. And his approval rating is dropping every day, the worse things get

Trump’s approval rating at record low

President Trump’s approval rating after six months in office is the lowest of any president in the past 70 years, according to a new poll.

Just 36 percent of Americans in the ABC News/Washington Post poll released early Sunday approve of the job Trump is doing, while 58 percent disagree.

Trump’s approval rating has fallen 6 points since a similar survey 100 days into his presidency, pollsters noted, which was also a low.

The latest results follow news that Donald Trump Jr. met with a Russian lawyer offering damaging information about Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.

Almost two-thirds of Americans, 63 percent, said that meeting was inappropriate.
Sixty percent also said Russia tried to influence the campaign.


http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/342212-trumps-approval-rating-at-record-low

[Samantha]

6. But don't you think it is odd that even though that approval rating is just 36 percent

that is still a larger number than his reported entire base. I find it difficult to swallow that his current approval numbers are larger than his base, especially in light of all of the problems he and his administration have had (make the word "problems" debacles). Kind of defies logic, doesn't it?

Thanks for posting this information you gave us.

On second thought, perhaps that 38 should have been -38....

Sam

[Rhiannon12866]

8. I find it tough to believe that anyone approves of him with everything we hear every day

All I can think is that they believe what he said during the campaign rather than believing the facts on the ground - and how many of these "supporters" actually voted for him to begin with? I remember seeing the crowds at his rallies on the news - and a lot of the signs they showed on camera were looking for publicity for some very different and bizarre agenda...

The other news that stuck with me is that those who said - and still say - they approve of the "job" he's doing no longer support him "as much." With everything that continues to come out regarding his failures and his family issues, those numbers are sure to drop, too. Thanks for the encouraging post, I agree that the news these days is very disheartening.

[Wolf Frankula]

4. How Large is Bumshteyn's Base?

How many employees does the Russian Federal Security Service have? That number plus Vladimir Putin is his base.

Wolf

[Samantha]

7. Good answer, Wolf -- sterling, in fact

I think you just might be right.

And thanks for posting on my thread.

Sam

[SoCalMusicLover]

5. Polls Don't Matter When They Can Rig The Results

They've managed to convince the average IDIOT that polls are manipulated by the big, bad media anyways. There used to be a time when polling was sacred and valuable.

If polls meant a damn, Hillary would be President. So either they mean Shit, or something more nefarious is going on. The same shit that went on in 2004 and may have been attempted in 2012 (see Rover and his election night antics).

[Samantha]

9. Are you familiar with Mark Penn?

He formed a lot of the public perception on the 2016 race and how Hillary was doing.

He had such a horrid reputation, when Hillary's staff learned she was going to take him back into her 2016 campaign, many of them threatened to quit if she did. That is how much he was despised by them. He has that terrible reputation because he earned it! Hillary moved him into a different spot to appease her staff -- he was in charge of the polling.






And above is a picture of him -- he is the man in the middle. Photo copied from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Penn which also contains a lot of info about him.

Thanks for posting on my thread.

Sam

[RKP5637]

10. What am I missing in this chart? I though Clinton was about 3M ahead of Trump in popular vote?

http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/21/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-popular-vote-final-count/index.html

[ismnotwasm]

12. The figures are old and not updated

The point is a good one--and why I believe we have untapped resources in the non-voters.

[RKP5637]

13. Thanks!!! It does make an excellent point, untapped resources in the non-voters. n/t

[OilemFirchen]

11. This big:

[Cosmocat]

14. I hate to tell you, but the blue is his "base" too

these people were willing to accept him.

Even now, people just don't get how straight up fucking stupid this country is.

We are the only people voting out of reality and common sense, that is 1/3 of the country.

Our 1/3 gets directly negated by their out and out brain washed zombies.

BUT, that middle 1/3 is not "on our side."

They are not full on walking dead, but they are infected by right wing bullshit, too. They believe "they are both the same" and will break R as often as not because they will single issue vote on some bullshit that the Rs pull people in on.

I am not saying it is absolutely helpless, but sorry, the smart money is on the stupid until proven otherwise.

[JoeStuckInOH]

15. "...the fact that it apears a myriad of contenders could throw him onto the mat with ease..."

One would have thought the exact same of Hillary vs. Trump.
A democratic supergiant versus a GOP raucous reality star and failed business man - no contest right??
Yet here we are.

I think the time for underestimating Trump and their tactics needs to be over. Whatever our views on his (in)competency or strength of candidacy, he's is the one in the Whitehouse currently and the incumbent in the 2020 race... so it will be an uphill battle even without 2020election meddling.

[Samantha]

16. I think the important number is the 48 percent which did not vote for either

I have repeatedly read that 47 percent of those who did vote skipped making a choice for President and just voted down ballot for other candidates running for different positions. Some of these articles were entitled "Nobody won the 2016 election" and I believe that the true reading of the matter. Some of those people are now witnessing first hand the horrors being perpetrated by the Trump administration, and I do believe they will be making an entirely different choice in 2020. Those people grossly underestimated the damage which one man could do in so little time.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts on this thread.

Sam