Health Care Set Up?
1. Two hardcore Repealers jump ship on Repeal/Replace, killing it, along with Rand Paul.
2. Trump tweets that they should just repeal, and the Dems will help fix it.
3. McConnell announces "Just Repeal, Two Year Delay (So Dems Are Forced to Help Replace)" bill.
The only countable No on this is ostensibly Collins, who voted No on the same bill in 2015. That reads like 51-48 in favor, with no expected effects before 2019 (i.e., negligible for the midterms, except as a wedge to call Dems obstructionists, and the real ones taking healthcare away for not cooperating). Notice that the four hardcore R's who signaled No votes on Repeal/Replace are all not up again until 2022.
Trump's tweet is the tell here. He likes to be perceived as having directed the effort, and McConnell is happy to give him that. Once they saw they couldn't move the needle on Repeal/Replace, they opted for this kamikaze strategy, with Paul, Moran, and Lee all in the mix. The problem is that we have a few R's now calling for process, and "Two Days to Full Repeal Vote" is not process. Perhaps Graham and McCain see this developing and are working their own push back by focusing on process, or maybe they're in on it too, and will call the new situation the "blank slate" for bipartisan process?
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