How much longer will it be before Texas is a swing state?

[LonePirate]

Last edited Wed Jul 26, 2017, 05:29 PM - Edit history (1)

Per Wikipedia, the state already has a majority of residents who do not identify as non-Hispanic white. The number of left leaning white voters surely exceeds the number of right leaning Hispanic voters thanks to 45's horrific immigration policies. So how much longer will be until our numbers level the playing field with right leaning white voters?

Yes, we have a massive voter suppression effort to overcome in the state and it won't be easy. Surely our party has some 1%ers who could fund massive voter registration and documentation drives to help combat the suppression.

Removing Texas as the heart of Republican power (at the state and federal levels) would go a long way toward restoring sanity, decency and democracy to this country.

[awesomerwb1]

1. There was a very informative article about Texas

in The New Yorker ('America's Future is Texas'). It says the the Texas population will be around 55 million in 2050 (CA and NY combined).

They can demonize and scare away the "brown" people, but the people moving in will more than make up for that exodus.

So swing state......imo, within 15 years.

[cloudbase]

2. I think the 15 year estimate is on target.

Last fall, my wife and I attended a series of seminars at Rice University about the 2016 Election. One of the presenters was Bob Steinberg, who publishes the Kinder Report. He's got about thirty years of data on Houston area demographics.

One of the things he mentioned was that he looks at school enrollment. In my district, the 2016 graduating seniors were around 60% white, with the remainder various minority groups. The incoming first graders were around 83% minority.

The numbers don't lie.

[Dem_4_Life]

3. Hopefully 2018 LOL

Even my Dad who is a massive republican and a high up exec at Koch Oil said TX will turn blue VERY SOON.

FINGERS CROSSED!!!

[Skittles]

4. too long

[moose65]

5. I am hopeful about Texas...

Remember, in 2004 Virginia was still considered a solid red state - not even a swing state, and people were asking how long it would be before Virginia turned, and then BOOM - three straight blue Presidential years. I'm hoping that the demographic shift will hit Texas first. It's already a state where white people aren't the majority. I've also heard that Texas has really low voter turnout, which needs to be addressed. If Texas ever flips at the Presidential level, the Republicans are fucked.

[MosheFeingold]

7. Virginia flipped

Because of the DC suburbs.

[LonePirate]

9. Isn't that where the bulk of the population growth is in VA?

A similar red to blue change for the suburbs of Austin, Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston and San Antonio would make the state as blue as Illinois.

[salin]

12. I venture to guess that the sway of politicized mega-churches

(white evangelical) is likely stronger in the Suburban Texas communities than it is in the northern VA region. I get a sense that the tribalism pushed from the pulpit is very strong there.

[MosheFeingold]

13. Yes

And certainly urbanization helps.

But Northern VA, in particular, was federal government workers, who are loyal Democratic voters.

It's hard to predict a Southern trend based on that.

Growth in Texas, for example, is of all sorts, including oil, which is about as Republican as it gets.

Also conservative people are attracted to Texas simply because it's conservative -- i.e., a Republican in NJ moves to Texas because he likes that Texas doesn't have an income tax.

[Gothmog]

6. Texas will turn blue one day and when that happens the GOP will have no chance to elect POTUS

We are working hard to turn Texas blue

[Major Nikon]

19. Which means the GOP won't survive

No way the GOP will make it as a regional only party.

[MosheFeingold]

8. I wouldn't count on Hispanics in Texas voting Democratic

Sure, mainly. But not like the rest of the country.

I am a NYC/DC transplant to --- of all places -- rural eastern New Mexico. (I have reached an age where it is best to live with family and my grandson built me a little guest house by his house.)

Many of my new friends are Hispanic. (I'm "Anglo" to them.) They are ranching and oilfield people.

I am the only liberal among them, bar none.

We even have a Hispanic Republican governor (in a blue state). The base of our party is, ironically, Anglo transplants from California in Sante Fe and Native Americans (and not all tribes).

[LeftInTX]

22. You are exactly right

I am married to a Hispanic. I live in a Hispanic city. There are plenty of rural, military, and upwardly mobile types.

They are an ethnic group, not a voting block.

They also tend to be very anti-abortion.

Our rabid redneck governor's wife is Hispanic.

[hurl]

10. A while

4th generation lifelong Texas resident... I was seriously disappointed by recent events here. I thought Wendy Davis had a shot in our gubernatorial election - if not of winning, at least making it relatively competitive. Yes, she ran a lackluster campaign, but Greg Abbot was VERY clear about coming after every Texas woman's uterus, and yet a majority of Texas women voted FOR him anyway. She was defeated by wider margins than previous Democratic challengers. I don't know what to make of that, other than all this promising talk of turning Texas blue requires a LOT more work than we have put in to date.

I have heard it said that Texas is not so much a red state as a non-voter state, which allows a dedicated and active minority population to dominate our politics. Until that changes, we are solidly red. Apathy is the enemy here, and that seems harder to overcome than Russian hacking.

[rainbow4321]

11. Look at drumf's approval rating in TX on this map

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/heres-trumps-approval-rating-every-212949445.html


42%

There was a reason Dallas County reported that the Russians attempted to hack the County voter rolls and why Harris County reported in November that the Russian consulate guy there asked to monitor their polling booths on Election Day (the Harris County news was covered in the Texas Tribune back in November--and that the Russian request was denied by the local election officials).

Trump knew he was at risk of losing the republican crown jewel. Living in TX, I watched pre election polls/maps. We were fucking PINK. So pink the polls at one point were "within the margin of error".
BUT, the national media was so focused on the historical swing states, they IGNORED TX.

So I spent much of my TV viewing time flailing my arms at the TV going "YOO HOO...SHIT is happening down HERE!".
The media and Trump never mentioned TX until the polls gave him a 11 or 12 point lead then he/they were oh, and look at his lead in TX.

He only won TX BY NINE POINTS on Election Day. NINE. Again, the media just falls in line with oh, it's TX..it's a red state of course he won it. Yeah but when is the last time a repuke carried TX by so few points? I know when cuz I looked it up. It was during both of President Clinton's elections. You don't think THAT wasn't in the mind of Trump's people when they saw the TX pre election polls?

If a Dem had only won CA or NY by only nine points we'd still be hearing about it on Fox News. If their current approval rating were only 42% in those states it would be getting covered by Fox 24/7 with how that Dem Pres was losing his/her base. But I guarantee you none of the media will say "wow...look at TX..Trump only has a 42% approval..what does that say about how badly things are going for him?"

[edhopper]

14. As long as the GOP

can keep gerrymandering the State, it will remain Red.

[Alice11111]

16. It is gerrymandered so hard that Austin is Repub.

Frankly, after spending some time there recently, various parts of Texas, it will be awhile. Even most of the liberals hated Hillary. Plus, they have open primaries, which the Repubs take advantage of

[edhopper]

21. Yep

[IMG][/IMG]

[tammywammy]

15. Let's see how the gerrymandering lawsuit goes.

If the judges rule like they should that the GOP uses races to determine voting districts so they can put low voting Hispanics together to get a Republican district the democrats could pick up three new house seats next year.

[geek tragedy]

17. when Latino turnout is proportinal to their percentage of the population nt

[LeftInTX]

18. Right now with bathroom bills, show me your papers

defunding public schools, war on reproductive rights, Dan Patrick, representatives bringing guns to the floor, representatives getting in a brawl on the floor, representatives calling ICE on the gallery, Abbott threatening to shoot reporters, etc etc etc I am not feeling very optimistic.

This place is making Mississippi look progressive. It is getting redder by the day.

[UTUSN]

20. As Begala says it's not a Red state it's a non-voting state

Plus, while voter suppression is totally real, the non-voting component is probably equal to the overt suppression part in lethal effectiveness, maybe more.

African American civil rights and LBJ zeroed in on *voting* the way Mexican American turnout has not matched.