I found this on reddit about the repeal vote.

[Flaleftist]

Does this sound about right?

I'm not sure if it's really being appreciated just how comprehensively the Republicans were just fucked over.

See, the Republicans have been trying to pass these godawful healthcare bills through a process called budget reconciliation, which, among other things, protects the bill from being filibustered in the Senate and only requires a simple majority of 50 votes (rather than 60, which the Republicans don't have).

The thing is, the Senate can only consider one budget reconciliation bill per topic per year. Of course, if the bill dies in committee and never comes to an official vote, it doesn't count- which is why they've been able to keep hammering away at the issue.

This bill, though, was allowed to come to the Senate floor, because the Republicans thought they'd secured the votes. Collins, Murkowski and the Democrats would vote no, everyone else would vote yes, and Pence would break the tie. And then McCain completely fucked them. And it was almost certainly a calculated move; he voted to allow the bill to come to the floor. Had McCain allowed it to die in committee, McConnell could have come back with yet another repeal bill; but he let it come to a vote, and now they can't consider another budget reconciliation bill for the rest of the fiscal year. The Senate needs 60 votes to pass any kind of healthcare reform now.

So now they're caught between a rock and a hard place. Either they concede defeat on the issue and try again later (causing a big, unpopular stink that could damage elections if they try it before the midterms, or risking losing the slim majority they already have if they wait) or they actually sit down with the democrats like adults and write a halfway decent healthcare bill.

This is amazing.


https://www.reddit.com/r/news/comments/6q1snh/us_senate_healthcare_repeal_bill_fails/dku2gyq/?sh=0243f1ca&st=J5O0AJUD








https://www.reddit.com/r/news/comments/6q1snh/us_senate_healthcare_repeal_bill_fails/dku2gyq/?sh=0243f1ca&st=J5O0AJUD

[unblock]

1. Hmm that might explain Benedict Donald's tweet whine about needing 60 votes

[not fooled]

60. So someone

explained the process to him. Because no way did he know this beforehand.

Just an observation.

[unblock]

61. Exactly, he probably said just keep trying

And someone explained that they can't they can't have another healthcare reconciliation bill for another year and therefore need 60 votes.

[NastyRiffraff]

62. That's exactly right

I said in another thread that I think Dump could try to disband Congress. It sounds crazy, but look who we're talking about. Only that would or could make Republicans finally rebel.

Someone told him about the process and its limitations so now he wants to change the process.

[MineralMan]

2. I think that is correct.

Now, they'll have to overcome a filibuster. Ha!

[underpants]

4. Or wait 6 months.

They also can't avoid a filibuster on the Tax plan either.

I had read about this once a year rule. Yes I think that's accurate.

[WhiteTara]

13. Very sweet. He got them on 2 fronts

I'm suddenly having some respect for McCain.

[brush]

40. If that was McCain's intent, I take my hat off to him. I hope it was.

If so, it's nice to see the decent man return, the one who rejected the Muslim characterization of Obama by a rally attendee in the 2008 campaign.

[Ace Rothstein]

14. No way they get a repeal through during an election year.

[tblue37]

19. Actually, since they didn't pass a budget last year, this reconciliation

counted as last year's. They get one more for the next fiscal year, which starts, I think, on Oct. 1.

Therefore, they can use the reconciliation process once more and will try to use it for the tax cuts they want. The reason Mitch tried that slick 2-reconciliations maneuver was because they needed to cut some taxes by way of the ostensible health care bill in order to provide revenue neutral wiggle room for their tax "reform," because they hope to make those tax cuts permanent. If they are not revenue neutral, they will expire in 10 years.

Trump couldn't understand why they insisted on doing healthcare first, but that is why--to use the reconciliation trick twice to avoid the filibuster. But since the new fiscal year would prevent them from using the second one, they needed to get healthcare done before Oct. 1.

And THAT is why Mitch was in such a desperate rush on the healthcare bill.

[tblue37]

23. Actually they can. See my post about Mitch's attempt at a slick 2-reconciliation

in 2017 maneuver.

The healthcare bill was the reconciliation for the last fiscal year, because they did not pass a budget last year. The new fiscal year starts on Oct. 1, so they will have another reconciliation opportunity then, but without the tax cuts they attempted in the healthcare bill, they have less wiggle room for tax cuts, because reconciliation needs to be revenue neutral to achieve their goal.

[Volaris]

33. So unless they want to risk another goround on ACA repeal in oct,

There's no way they can get a tax bill done (without 60 votes) before the election year starts in Jan?
Is that correct?

[tblue37]

41. No. They can try to do a tax bill through reconciliation after the new fiscal year starts on

Oct. 1, but unless it is revenue neutral, they won't be able to use reconciliation, so they would need 60 votes. However, if it is neutral (achieved through spending cuts), then they can do it through reconciliation.

If they had succeeded in getting rid of the significant taxes and expenses in the ACA, then they would have had hundreds of billions of dollars as a cushion when they went to cut taxes (the House bill, for example, cut $864 billion from Medicaid over a decade).

But if the tax "reform" bill isn't revenue neutral over 10 years, then the tax cuts would automatically expire in 10 years, the way the Bush tax cuts did under Obama. That is something the GOP wants to avoid. They want the tax cuts to be permanent.

Obviously they could do a tax bill with cuts that would last for just 10 years, and my guess is that ultimately that is what they will do, since they can probably get 51 R votes for that.

[tblue37]

42. Oh, and after Oct. 1 they can try to use reconciliation for a tax bill, but they have used up their

reconciliation opportunity for the current fiscal year by wasting it on a failed healthcare vote.

This is why healthcare is probably done at least for awhile--because they need next fiscal year's reconciliation opportunity for their tax bill.

[UTUSN]

3. Big R#5 & K for, excellent!

[chimpymustgo]

5. Thanks for posting! Insightful and fascinating! nt

[rzemanfl]

6. Trouble is a new fiscal year starts October 1st. n/t

[tblue37]

43. They will use the reconciliation opportunity for next fiscal year on their tax cut bill.

They have already used up the one they had for the current year--the one they wasted on the failed healthcare vote. They won't try to do healthcare through reconciliation again next fiscal year (starting Oct. 1), because they need it for tax "reform."

[rzemanfl]

58. Excellent point. Thank you. n/t

[Justice]

7. K&R

[janx]

8. I wonder when Trump, Pence, and the Republican senators (minus Collins and Murkowski)

figured out that McCain wasn't going to vote for the bill...? When Pence arrived he went over to McCain for a little chat; there was also word that he passed a phone--with Trump on the other end--to McCain just outside the Senate floor.

Trump's tweet lauding McCain for showing up to vote sounded very optimistic.

When did they know, or did they not know until it happened?

[tblue37]

24. When he spoke to Cornyn and made him frown and then he went over and made

the Democrats smile, that is when they knew what he was going to do.

[janx]

29. It probably was that simple.

[LeftInTX]

56. Wonder why Cornyn didn't stop the vote?

[Honeycombe8]

27. Trump probably thinks it was personal.

Trump now knows that the Prez isn't the only one with power. But I think McCain really was wanting to get a bill best for his state, and this wasn't personal. He said he had been working w/the AZ governor on it, and the current bill would be bad for Arizonians, as is the current ACA, so they have to come up with something else.

McCain said the AZ gov's office had a couple of amendments, which McCain has ready, and other Republicans have ideas worked out, none of which have been considered, apparently.

McCain wouldn't have lied to the Prez and Pence beforehand, so my guess is that when Pence asked, McCain told them how he was going to vote. But the roll call is taken beforehand by McConnell's staff, so they know if they have the number needed to pass. So McCain must have indicated either "yes" or "maybe" to them, or they wouldn't have proceeded with the vote.

Because McCain was voting no, then Lindsey Graham and Ron Johnson were free to vote for it, knowing it wouldn't pass. (Johnson, Graham, & McCain gave a press conf. about the bill....all said they didn't want to vote for it, unless they could get a promise from the House that they would take it to conference to change it up, this skinny bill would just be a vehicle for working on a real one, because as it stood, the bill was horrible and they wouldn't go for it.) Graham later said he'd finally gotten a guarantee on that from the House (previously he had said that Paul Ryan said he couldn't guarantee it wouldn't be passed "as is" and go to Trump for signature), so he voted yes. Apparently that guarantee didn't work for McCain.

[janx]

31. Agreed about his motives. I posted this earlier today:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=9383470


McCain has been in the Senate for 30 years. No wonder the guarantee didn't work for him.

Thanks for your reply.

[Barack_America]

9. Explains McCain's lecturing them about "getting nothing done".

Well played.

[uponit7771]

10. ODonnell just covered this ... McCain HAD to get it to the floor otherwise they'd keep bringing it u

... the fight is on for next year though

[CatWoman]

15. isn't next year an election year

(congressional)?

[relayerbob]

11. Yes

This is why McCain was trying to force them to a real vote and to go back to a normal process. For all his issues, he seems the only one in the GOP interested in following any sort of rule of law

[keithbvadu2]

12. Saw some headline recently that Trump was telling them to change the rules.

Saw some headline recently that Trump was telling them to change the rules.

Not that that would be a first.

[Stuart G]

16. Now I understand this much better,McCain got McConnell twice, and good.

[oasis]

17. Wow! K and R

[yardwork]

18. I heard this today from a smart lawyer. It's true.

I think McCain was angry at McConnell for the highhanded secretive way he tried to push this through.

[rzemanfl]

20. It's reported Trump called him too. I bet that did not sit well. n/t

[OnlinePoker]

36. McCain - Say I'm not a hero you draft-dodging fucktard

Welcome to a real example of power politics.

[Honeycombe8]

22. A number of the Repubs were angry at McConnell. Heard 1 on tv today say he ought to resign.

One Repub on tv today said he thought McConnell should resign his post, that he's been ineffective as a leader.

Several on tv were complaining about the secretive way the HC bills were handled, and stating that they couldn't vote for something that they didn't know what it was, so they would only vote if they got it ahead of time enough to review it.

But apparently they weren't angry enough not to vote for the old terrible bill and this new terrible one.

[tblue37]

25. Mitch really put them on the spot by forcing them to vote for such an unpopular bill

just so he could get something passed, and doing so without allowing them any input on it.

He really made them stick their necks out, so now they are on record voting for it, and all for nothing since it didn't pass anyway.

[Honeycombe8]

30. Yeah, they didn't sound happy.

McCain, Graham, Ron Johnson (& Bill Cassidy joined in) had a press conf. on the bill.

McCain said he had been working w/the AZ governor & his people on the HC bill. The gov's office drafted a couple of amendments, which McCain had ready to go. He said he and Graham and others have ideas that they think might fly, but which haven't been considered at all. He thinks they could even get some Democrats on board with some of their ideas.

It's clear they didn't like the secretive, fast way this was handled without thought of the effect on people. McCain said the people of AZ were being hurt by the ACA, and would be hurt by this skinny repeal. He said this bill would make premiums skyrocket even more.

[Honeycombe8]

21. Well, I'll be. I regret that I was angry at McCain for the vote to go to a vote. nt

[Puzzler]

32. Yes, I agree ...

... that was a pretty brilliant tactical move. He well and truly fucked them:

Check mate

Well played. And I regret some of the comments I made about McCain too.

Of course, there's a chance that he just had a sudden change of heart. But it seems a bit unlikely to me. I think he's experienced enough to have known the consequences of his earlier vote. And to know strategically what this vote really meant.

-Puzzler

[dixiegrrrrl]

53. He knows this is gonna be his last hurrah.

That has to be figured into the equation. He is not stupid.

[smirkymonkey]

59. +1000

I also regret some of my comments, but he came through in the end. I wish him well.

[moonscape]

49. Same here. I was livid, calling him a stupid old man,

thankfully privately, when it is I who am a stupid old woman.

Then, when Slavit put up a poll on Twitter last night, asking if McCain would vote Yes, No, or Yes and give a speech, I voted Yes+speech.

Love being wrong when it counts!

[zentrum]

26. Wow. nt

[Lucinda]

28. KNR Thank you!

[defacto7]

34. Amazing. The best, the worst, the cowardly and the courageous

all in one night on the hill. Something to remember.

[krawhitham]

35. He returned the bill to committee after the vote

[AC_Mem]

37. Yes but

The new fiscal year starts 10/1, which is less than 3 months away...

[tblue37]

44. They can't use reconciliation again this fiscal year--and they can't waste their only

reconciliation opportunity of next fiscal year on another quixotic run at the ACA, because they need to use it for a big tax cut bill.

[Lyricalinklines]

38. I had forgotten the part that consideration of budget reconciliation once a year by senate....

...thank you for posting. I said in another DU thread reply an awful thing about McCain when he voted to allow this to come to the floor for consideration/debate. I see after reading your post I was unfair to him. I see now he really did turn the tide on this. I believe he knew what he was doing.

The fiscal year ends September 30th so they could introduce a new bill. Risky with budgetary issues needing tended this year plus election year. Interesting.

I do have new respect for McCain's finesse of this. He played this straight. He said he would not vote for it in its form. He wasn't grandstanding as I initially thought.

Thanks again for posting this, Flaleftist!
Great thread and informative dialogue, everyone!

[tblue37]

45. They won't try healthcare again this fiscal year, b/c if they couldn't get 51, they

Last edited Sat Jul 29, 2017, 11:09 AM - Edit history (1)

sure can't get 60, which would be required now.

And they won't use reconciliation on healthcare next fiscal year, either, because they need to use reconciliation to force their big tax cut bill, and they only get one reconciliation per fiscal year.

[Lyricalinklines]

48. Yes. I hope they see the economic damage their gameplaying ...

...and defunding of insurance in marketplace is doing. Otherwise the economy will take a huge hit. Their pride and hatred could hurt the economy with their punishing and abusive use of power.

[tblue37]

50. One thing they ignored is that messing with healthcare like that (1/6 of the economy!)

Last edited Sat Jul 29, 2017, 01:40 AM - Edit history (1)

would cause a possible up to a million jobs in healthcare -- just as Trump'sfederal guiding freeze and laying off of other federal employees not only undermines government functions but also means jobs are lost.

Furthermore, all those lost jobs mean that many people won't have money to spend, which further contracts the economy, leading to a negative feedback loop that could end up causing another great recession, or even a depression.

At least the healthcare jobs didn't get destroyed this time.

[Lyricalinklines]

54. I concur!

It was people losing jobs, parents losing not only employment, but also healthcare assistance for their parents/ children, sometimes even grandparents! It was so much more than the numbers predicted of those actually losing healthcare. Hospitals knew it would mean restructuring over failing to save themselves and as many jobs as they could. Geez, they've been restructuring the last 8 years to accommodate insurance companies dictates.

Combined with trump allowing to remain empty hundreds of federal positions we will soon begin seeing that toll on business being on hold. I believe he's not filling those positions to keep a tight reign on functions of running the government...it's how he ran his businesses (unsuccessfully, obviously). Doubtless, he'll blame the Democrats for obstructing and taking his attention away from the running of the country...Oh ...oops! Done!

I feel the same as you....this time we can count what we've learned in this battle and apply it and build upon it for the next challenges. Bet that will be LGBTQ issues!

[VermontKevin]

39. McCain waited in the tall grass and earned his revenge.

[janx]

47. +1000

[flamingdem]

46. McCain done good

[moonscape]

51. What makes this particularly sweet is - wasn't it

McConnell who was pressing his docs to clear him to come back for the Motion to Proceed, or was it someone else. If someone else, surely at the direction of McConnell.

[Leghorn21]

52. Superior, educational, delicious post, Fla! And these replies are simply brilliant! Thanks to all!!

[still_one]

55. WOW!!!

[SHRED]

57. If this is how it went down...

...then I take back all my venom towards him on this issue and owe him an apology.

[Casprings]

63. Not true. Mitch can bring this up anytime he wants.

They failed to passed an amendment to the House bill. McConnell then put the House bill back on the legislative calendar. He can bring it back up anytime he wants.

[catbyte]

65. He can bring it up anytime he wants, but will a simple majority vote work? I thought that was why

Twitler was going apeshit about demanding they abolish the filibuster.

[Casprings]

66. Yes. Simple majority. The reddit post is wrong

[catbyte]

67. So the Center on Budget & Policy Priorities is wrong?

https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-budget/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation

Under Senate interpretations of the Congressional Budget Act, the Senate can consider the three basic subjects of reconciliation — spending, revenues, and debt limit — in a single bill or multiple bills, but it can consider each of these three in only one bill per year (unless Congress passes a second budget resolution). Consequently, in the Senate there can be a maximum of three reconciliation bills in a year, one for each of the basic subjects of reconciliation.

This rule is most significant if the first reconciliation bill that the Senate takes up affects both spending and revenues. Even if that bill is overwhelmingly devoted to only one of those subjects, no subsequent reconciliation bill can affect either revenues or spending because the first bill already addressed them.

[Casprings]

68. That is correct..

However, the bill has not failed. Only an amendment to the house bill failed. It can come back up on the Senate floor anytime the Maj. Leader wants.

[lark]

64. Destructomites will always take the worst possible path.

They will let drumpf wreck the ACA, destroy healthcare for 36million, then declare that Obamacare failed. No, it didn't fail, they killed it. However will RW folks hear this when Faux/Breitbart/Drudge will just lie and say look what these nasty dems did. Hopefully Ind. will hear the vicdictiveness and hate in drumpfs voice and realize that he personally killed the ACA, and take revenge on the r's at the polls.

[Nitram]

69. OK, my respect for McCain just went up significantly. Your analysis sounds right on the money.