Trans Military Ban: Why Doubling Down on the Culture Wars Won't Save Trump
With the administration quickly taking on the feel of a bad circus, earlier this week President Trump signaled his intent to turn to an old strategy intended to solidify support among the Republican base. He is following the formula correctly, but it is unlikely to work this time.
George W. Bush and his key strategist Karl Rove famously boosted Republicans' chances in the 2004 election by using "wedge issues" against Democratic candidates. This involved, most prominently, introducing ballot measures about same-sex marriage in a number of key states including Ohio.
The theory was that conservative-leaning voters who might be unimpressed by Bush's first term performance would be motivated to vote by their strong opposition to same-sex marriage. Other issues used to similar effect during the W years included abortion and stem cell research bans.
As election strategies go, this was not a bad one; Bush entered 2004 on somewhat shaky ground, with voters becoming increasingly dissatisfied with an Iraq War that was promised to be short and easy. Tapping into conservative voters' strong feelings about social issues made sense.
Using that template, Trump has signaled a strong shift toward "Culture Wars" messaging this week. Unfortunately for him, it probably won't be effective at all this time. Each election requires a strategy that is suited to the political context of the moment. What worked in 2004 is hardly guaranteed to work in 2017.
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