General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWho voted for Trump?
from https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/10/the-first-white-president-ta-nehisi-coates/537909/
Asserting that Trumps rise was primarily powered by cultural resentment and economic reversal has become de rigueur among white pundits and thought leaders. But evidence for this is, at best, mixed. In a study of preelection polling data, the Gallup researchers Jonathan Rothwell and Pablo Diego-Rosell found that people living in areas with diminished economic opportunity were somewhat more likely to support Trump. But the researchers also found that voters in their study who supported Trump generally had a higher mean household income ($81,898) than those who did not ($77,046). Those who approved of Trump were less likely to be unemployed and less likely to be employed part-time than those who did not. They also tended to be from areas that were very white: The racial and ethnic isolation of whites at the zip code level is one of the strongest predictors of Trump support.
An analysis of exit polls conducted during the presidential primaries estimated the median household income of Trump supporters to be about $72,000. But even this lower number is almost double the median household income of African Americans, and $15,000 above the American median. Trumps white support was not determined by income. According to Edison Research, Trump won whites making less than $50,000 by 20 points, whites making $50,000 to $99,999 by 28 points, and whites making $100,000 or more by 14 points. This shows that Trump assembled a broad white coalition that ran the gamut from Joe the Dishwasher to Joe the Plumber to Joe the Banker. So when white pundits cast the elevation of Trump as the handiwork of an inscrutable white working class, they are being too modest, declining to claim credit for their own economic class. Trumps dominance among whites across class lines is of a piece with his larger dominance across nearly every white demographic. Trump won white women (+9) and white men (+31). He won white people with college degrees (+3) and white people without them (+37). He won whites ages 1829 (+4), 3044 (+17), 4564 (+28), and 65 and older (+19). Trump won whites in midwestern Illinois (+11), whites in mid-Atlantic New Jersey (+12), and whites in the Sun Belts New Mexico (+5). In no state that Edison polled did Trumps white support dip below 40 percent. Hillary Clintons did, in states as disparate as Florida, Utah, Indiana, and Kentucky. From the beer track to the wine track, from soccer moms to nascar dads, Trumps performance among whites was dominant. According to Mother Jones, based on preelection polling data, if you tallied the popular vote of only white America to derive 2016 electoral votes, Trump would have defeated Clinton 389 to 81, with the remaining 68 votes either a toss-up or unknown.
JI7
(89,239 posts)Especially the men
cyclonefence
(4,483 posts)well, one of the things that surprised me in this essay is that Trump's support did not come mostly from the so-called "white working class" but from, as you say white straight christians, although I'm not sure about the christian part. I'd like to see some poll numbers broken down by religious affiliation, but straight I'll give you.
Trump even out-polled HRC (although only by a small margin) among women.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)cyclonefence
(4,483 posts)From the essay:
voters in their study who supported Trump generally had a higher mean household income ($81,898) than those who did not ($77,046). Those who approved of Trump were less likely to be unemployed and less likely to be employed part-time than those who did not. They also tended to be from areas that were very white: The racial and ethnic isolation of whites at the zip code level is one of the strongest predictors of Trump support.
Maybe your experience is different from mine, but I would be shocked to hear racist crap in that elevated economic level. There is so much hand-wringing over the Democratic Party's neglect of the "white working class" who were drawn to Trump's populism--these numbers indicate that the problem is much bigger than that. We need to attract racists from all economic walks of life.
I hope I don't really need this, but
Or we could get to work on combating institutionalized racism and put a few cops in jail for starters.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)Probably worse than a confederate flag waving racist.
cyclonefence
(4,483 posts)or socially conditioned enough to know to hide it.