What does today's @nytimes story about the status of the Mueller investigation tell us?

[CousinIT]

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THREAD: What does today's @nytimes story about the status of the Mueller investigation tell us?

1/ Today's @nytimes story provides us with a wealth of information about the state of the Mueller investigation that confirms much of what

2/ I told you in prior threads. It is jam packed with interesting information. Here is the link: https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/09/18/us/politics/mueller-russia-investigation.html?_r=0&referer=https://t.co/x8i9xipDNc?amp=1

3/ Let's start with this revelation. Paul Manafort is a "target" of the investigation. For the first time, we now know the Mueller probe



4/ will likely result in charges. More importantly, the tactic that Mueller is using--telling Manafort that he will be charged--is generally

5/ used when prosecutors are trying to get a defendant to "flip." This strongly suggests what we've long expected--that Mueller is trying

6/ to "flip" Manafort. What causes a target to "flip"? The #1 factor is assembling sufficient evidence to make it likely that the person

7/ will be convicted and serve a prison sentence. Mueller's team is being as aggressive as possible to indicate to Manafort that he should

8/ be concerned about that possibility. Subpoenaing Manafort's aides and his lawyer (more on her later) shows his focus on Manafort.



9/ So why was Mueller able to subpoena Manafort's lawyer? Because she was not acting as a lawyer in that representation. A lawyer's



10/ words aren't automatically privileged just because he/she is a lawyer. If you hire a lawyer to act as a lobbyist or PR person, for

11/ example, your conversations with the lawyer are not privilege. There is only privilege where the lawyer is practicing law.

12/ The story also confirms something I told you long ago--that the Manafort search warrant was a "no knock" warrant that required Mueller



13/ to show the judge that there was a reason to believe that Manafort would destroy evidence if they knocked on the door as usual.

14/ As I've told you before, the mere fact that Mueller used a search warrant indicates that he didn't trust Manafort to respond fully to a

15/ subpoena request. So why has Mueller been more trusting of the White House? See this excerpt:



16/ Mueller's approach towards the White House is consistent with how white collar investigations typically proceed. If there's no reason to

17/ believe the subjects of the investigation will destroy evidence and the defense lawyers are cooperative, it's more convenient for

18/ everyone to have an informal interview with a FBI agent present before going into the grand jury. The person still has to tell the truth

19/ because lying to the FBI is a crime, but the questions can be wide-ranging and there can be back and forth before the witness is "locked

20/ in" under oath with a court reporter present. So why the different approach with Manafort associates? See this excerpt:



21/ Typically that would suggest the witnesses are not cooperative and would not testify unless compelled to do so. But it could also mean

22/ that Mueller distrusts the witnesses and wants to put the heat on them so they testify truthfully. Perhaps the source of his distrust

23/ is what led to the no-knock warrant in the first place. We don't know what that is at this point.

24/ There is one last tidbit that I think is very interesting. This part of the piece raises a concern I discussed recently with you:



25/ In this thread I explained why Mueller wouldn't want FBI officials to be interviewed by Congress:

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THREAD: Why is the DOJ refusing to permit Congress to interview top FBI officials regarding the Comey firing? https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2017/09/13/politics/fbi-official-interview-request-denied-justice-department/index.html

1/ In the story above, @CNN reports that the Senate Judiciary Committee sought to interview two senior FBI officials about the Comey firing:



2/ The Justice Department refused, citing Mueller's appointment and its policy regarding confidential and sensitive information.



3/ So what does that mean? It means that whatever the FBI officials would tell Congress is relevant to what Mueller is investigating.

4/ It represents official confirmation that the firing of James Comey and the testimony of these two officials is part of the investigation.

5/ So why would their account of what happened be "sensitive" and "confidential"? Why not let them be interviewed?

6/ Recent reports indicate that Mueller is interviewing several White House officials about the firing of Comey.

7/ His questioning will be most effective if the witnesses know as little as possible about what other witnesses will say.

8/ He does not want their memory to be influenced by what they've been told others have said. He also doesn't want defense counsel to know

9/ at this stage what potential witnesses against their clients will say. Permitting the officials to be interviewed by the Senate would

10/ expand the pool of people who know their potential testimony and increase the possibility that it is disclosed publicly.

11/ Most public reporting on the Mueller investigation appears to originate from Congressional, White House, and defense sources.

12/ The Congressional investigation serves an important function, because it can investigate conduct that is not charged as a crime.

13/ It can also reveal information to the public about important events of public concern for which there is a lack of evidence to charge.

14/ But those functions typically take a back seat to ensuring that an ongoing criminal investigation is not hindered in any way. /end

15/ ADDENDUM: Nothing about this story suggests in any way that Mueller does not have access to the officials and their potential testimony.

26/ The Congressional investigation is important because it is the way the public can learn about evidence that ultimately doesn't result

27/ in charges. But testimony that results in leaks can ultimately tip off other witnesses and defense counsel. That's one reason why

28/ Mueller is moving at a pace that is extraordinarily fast for an investigation of this type. /end