Supremes predicting badly

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http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2017/09/supreme_court_justices_try_to_predict_the_future.html

Black Robes and Crystal Balls
Supreme Court justices like to predict the future. They aren’t very good at it.

By Mark Joseph Stern

Prediction: Allowing Guantánamo detainees to challenge their detention will get Americans killed.

Predictor: Justice Antonin Scalia
Right or wrong: Wrong

Prediction: Permitting states to opt out of Medicaid expansion won’t have much effect on the Affordable Care Act.

Predictor: Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg
Right or wrong: Wrong.

Prediction: Requiring forensic analysts to testify at criminal trials will let innumerable guilty people off the hook.

Predictor: Justice Anthony Kennedy
Right or wrong: Wrong

Prediction: Striking down a federal ban on same-sex marriage will not lead to nationwide marriage equality.

Predictor: Chief Justice John Roberts
Right or wrong: Hilariously wrong

Prediction: Affirmative action won’t be necessary by 2028.

Predictor: Justice Sandra Day O’Connor
Right or wrong: Too soon to tell (but probably wrong)


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1. prediction: citizen's united will not open the floodgates to foreign money in our elections

predictor: samuel alito
right of wrong: oy vey!

actual quote: obama: " (citizen's united decision) will open the floodgates for special interests — including foreign corporations — to spend without limit in our election"
alito: " (inaudibly) not true"

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2. Excellent point.

[gratuitous]

3. Prediction: Nullifying Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act won't affect voting patterns

Predictor: Chief Justice Roberts
Right or Wrong: Dead wrong, but he knew it all along.

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4. What a gratuitously excellent post!1