Trump is on track to win reelection (WaPo 10-06-2017)

[CousinIT]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trump-is-on-track-to-win-reelection/2017/10/06/91cd2af0-aa15-11e7-850e-2bdd1236be5d_story.html

. . .More than half of Americans don’t think Donald Trump is fit to serve as president, yet he has a clear path to winning reelection. If Trump isn’t removed from office and doesn’t lead the country into some form of global catastrophe, he could secure a second term simply by maintaining his current level of support with his political base.

. . .

Democrats and others who want to beat Trump, unifying behind one candidate will be essential.

[LuvLoogie]

1. Her email, though. And she laughs inappropriately. Like a warmonger.

[ck4829]

2. Maybe we should primary Trump.

Rally around one candidate who is not Trump in open primary states.

If Trump is the danger we all think he is, then this should be acceptable, no, obligatory.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

31. Not so sure we want the Nazi-in-Chief replaced as the candidate on the Rethuglican side...

He will surely lose. Indeed, I can think of half a dozen different Democratic candidates who would have a MUCH better chance of beating his racist ass the next time around in 2020. No way Dems will ever again take any vote for granted.

[mucifer]

3. Those are some HUGE ifs . nt

[MFM008]

4. NO difference

Between parties and " establishment"

[MoonRiver]

5. Bull

Oh, and about the Washington Post...

[MBS]

6. FYI, author is a Democratic politico, not a Republican

I don't agree with his downbeat tone, except for the fact that it might serve to frighten people enough to stay awake, focused, unified, and working hard, with savvy political strategy, to support Dem candidates in 2018 and 2020:.
Here is his conclusion (Dems who demand 100% purity in their candidates to gain their vote, or are tempted to vote 3rd party, or pout in any other way, please take heed):

In order to maintain and nurture his base, Trump will continue to embrace conflict, which will probably solidify his historically low approval ratings. Trump cannot win a two-person race this way. But he can prevail in a field with strong independent candidates on the ballot. So for Democrats and others who want to beat Trump, unifying behind one candidate will be essential. In addition, Trump must carry Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in 2020 to win. Efforts should begin now to chip away at his support in these states. It would be as big a mistake to assume that Trump cannot win reelection in 2020 as it was for those of us who never thought that he could become president in the first place.

[jodymarie aimee]

18. you don't know Wisconsin

the Rs already chipped away...gerrymandering, voter ID laws, throwing early ballots out, rigging machines.....

[Thor_MN]

24. Gerrymandering can do nothing to a Presidential election.

Suppressing votes certainly affect a Presidential election, but gerrymandering can not affect one.

[jodymarie aimee]

30. oh my look at a map of Wisconsin

they own the state here....so yes, it has to do with EVERY election.

[mythology]

36. Please explain in detail how that works given a state wide vote

Gerrymandering doesn't magically change the total number of Democrats in the state.

[Thor_MN]

39. How can you group together people in a state to change to outcome of a presidental?

The outcome is a statewide popular vote - it's the same no matter what precinct a given person votes in.

Gerrymandering can give a party an advantage when there are seats for multiple districts up for an election, but if the state is voting for President, or even Governor, it simply does not matter how voting districts are drawn.

If you believe there is a way to gerrymander a Presidential election, please provide details on how that would work.

[MBS]

42. Actually I do know Wisconsin, and especially what's happened to it.

Two of my relatives were students there at the time that Scott Walker took over, and witnessed his destruction of the state, step by horrible step.
You're right about every single one of those antidemocratic moves.

[Demsrule86]

27. People say stuff like what you wrote...but in reality, it dampens enthusiasm and turnout goes down

if people think the candidate they are not for will win...worked all sort of elections...this is what I have seen. He barely one last time with a great deal of cheating...those against him are highly motivated...I don't think he will win.

[MBS]

40. I agree with you. We Dems are way too good at being Debbie Downers, with

the kinds of effects you've stated.

[Demsrule86]

61. Exactly...the hold their feet to the fire and what happens? we lose every time.

[BannonsLiver]

7. Oh, it's just an opinion piece

I was able to figure that out before the posts aggressive pay wall wiped it away. All the better since it's just some dope's opinion about an election 3 years from now.

[DonViejo]

32. An opinion piece by a Dem operative...

By Doug Sosnik October 6 at 7:22 PM

Doug Sosnik, a Democratic political strategist, was a senior adviser to President Bill Clinton from 1994 to 2000.

[OilemFirchen]

41. Dick Morris was his campaign manager in 1996.

Not discounting what this benchwarmer is saying, but appealing to his authority is a bit dicey.

[BannonsLiver]

45. I couldn't care less.

[DonViejo]

46. What's that supposed to mean? I provided the by-line because

you said you got locked out. But, like you, I couldn't care less.

[BannonsLiver]

47. It means I don't care what the man thinks.

Or who he is.

[DonViejo]

50. You're welcome

[FreeStateDemocrat]

33. Thanks, as we learned in 2016 just running against the ass wipe is not enough, too many wack jobs...

are being allowed to vote while normal people's voting access is being suppressed.

[nini]

8. If he's not in prison by then

There will the biggest turnout in history of voters opposed to him.

It's up to everyone else to fix this..not his base.

[TEB]

9. I Agree I hope mueller produces evidence before then

[nini]

12. I am not the most patient person in the world

This wait is KILLING me.

[TEB]

13. I know

I cannot remember in either reading or hearing awhile ago. That mueller is in expansion phase of investigation ,and perhaps we're still looking at year to two years. I do remember thinking oh man but my wife mentioned that mueller needs to be thorough as in he may have only one chance at this.

[nini]

15. I hope we survive that long

But I definitely don't want him able to wiggle out of any of this either.

[TEB]

17. I know friend

King of the morons tweeting about Iran North Korea I fear war.

[nini]

53. My poor 93 year old mom said she hopes shes a direct hit on a bomb if that happens

But I've got to say I agree with her. I wouldn't want to survive it. That being said I don't think that will happen but the mental games he's putting us all through is evil on its own.

[MFM008]

48. right

Ive got PTSD from this shit as it is.
I want him gone yesterday..........

[nini]

54. PTSD is exactly what this is

And there's no end in sight with this do nothing Congress.

ugh

[Mz Pip]

10. Trump's election was a perfect storm

I don't believe there was just one thing that led to his victory.
43% of people eligible to vote didn't. Some people didn't care, some people didn't get the candidate of their choice, some people were just too lazy.
The were people who voted for Trump to just shake up the system.
There were people who voted for Trump just because he had an R next to his name.
There were people who voted for Trump because of the SCOTUS.
There were people who voted for Trump because of his anti Muslim stance.
Some were racist.
Some were misogynists.

While it is true that his base won't ever quit him, there are plenty of people who voted for him who aren't pleased. I think that number will grow. Those are the people we need to target.

[MFM008]

49. because

he wasnt "establishment".
He wasnt HRC or her "EMAILS".
he was a "tough" guy.
He had lots of money....

Now we have the biggest most horrific nightmare in American History
maybe in WORLD history.

I hope everyone who voted against HRC and got this maggot in there
are the first to get hit by the bombs.

[still_one]

11. Anyone who makes such a prediction without even knowing who Trump would be

Last edited Sat Oct 7, 2017, 04:27 PM - Edit history (1)

running against, both on the Republican side through their primary, and against an unnamed Democratic nominee is a bs artist

[Squinch]

19. This opinion piece is getting a lot of press and it IS bullshit. But it's the kind of bullshit that

is designed to demoralize Democrats and tell them that they are doing it all wrong.

These kinds of "articles" are insidious. And all too common. And they have an effect on the zeitgeist. They hurt us.

It's a patently ridiculous assertion that it's making, and yet it's the second time I have seen it here.

[still_one]

35. You nailed it squinch

[octoberlib]

23. +1 It's clickbait bullshit.

[FLPanhandle]

14. I'll not underestimate him again

I never dreamed he could have gotten elected the first time.

I never dreamed Bush could have gotten re-elected.

I'm done underestimating and writing off republicans.

[marylandblue]

60. Reagan was underestimated too

We've actually got a bad track record when it comes to understanding who people will vote for.

[Rollo]

16. Another misleading op-ed headline...

Reading the article itself, I came across this key paragraph:

"In order to maintain and nurture his base, Trump will continue to embrace conflict, which will probably solidify his historically low approval ratings. Trump cannot win a two-person race this way. But he can prevail in a field with strong independent candidates on the ballot. "

So, let the right field a strong independent candidate. But anyone from center to left needs to unite behind a single candidate, without a divisive primary battle. That means rallying behind whoever it is, whether it is Clinton, Sanders, Biden, Harris, Newsome, or some other notable Dem. No more back biting and holding one's nose. No more passive aggressive refusal to support the only person who can unseat Trump and end this national nightmare.

M'Kay?

[JoeStuckInOH]

20. I'll bet he gets Primaried.

[octoberlib]

21. This article's bs. Trump's been in office 8 months Maybe he's just trying to energize the Dem base.

[BootinUp]

22. What do they mean: unify behind one candidate?

[Akacia]

25. Really?

With his approval rating tanking I can not see it. But then I still have troubles believing he was elected in the first place. Time to rid ourselves of the electoral college and gerrymandering and return to paper ballots.

[pstokely]

58. it may have bottomed out

it may be consistently in the 30s

[SammyWinstonJack]

26. Except he didn't win the first election. Lost by almost 3 million votes, at least.

[spanone]

28. this country deserves to die a slow and painful death if true

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. Editors write the headlines, not the writers.

There is a huge difference between could be re-elected and would be re-elected.

[stopbush]

34. Absolute BULLSHIT. When has the WaPo EVER run an article on a president

being ontrack to win reelection at the nine month mark of his first term? And that doesn’t even take into account his abyssmal 32% approval rate.

Now, if you want to posit that the only reason tRump won was due to Russian collusion, and that at this point, the same level of collusion with a possibly even higher rate of effectiveness is ontrack to get him reelected, as our Congress doesn’t seem interested in stopping the Russian interference with Ds getting elected, then yes - you have a point.

[DFW]

37. Should it come to another Trump candidacy

He certainly is giving the opposition a lot of ammunition

http://verifiedpolitics.com/trump-just-tried-hide-public-unscheduled-trip-quickly-backfired/

[TheFrenchRazor]

38. have to agree, unfortunately. nothing has changed since 2016; trump/ruskies have a clear path

path to stealing it again.

[PdxSean]

43. Remember when Nate Silver warned that Trump could win in 2016?

Reactions in those old threads read frighteningly similar to reactions in this thread.

[bagelsforbreakfast]

51. Silver was just trying to cover his ass... his credibility is shot... n/m

[marylandblue]

56. Silver was the only number cruncher warning of a possible upset

His model was giving a Trump about a 1 in 6 chance, while everyone else said it 1 in 50 or worse. Silver was said that everyone else underestimated his chances and he was correct.

[bagelsforbreakfast]

57. He added that at the last minute to cover himself. n/m

[marylandblue]

59. PdxSean, I think you are right

We have not come to grips with what Trump's success actually means. Even if Clinton had won PA, WI AND MI narrowly, we'd still live in a country where 60 million people who voted for the most unqualfied, nastiest, dumbest candidate this country has ever produced. He should have gotten 0 votes from the minute he came down that escalator. He looked like a fucking moron right there. Yet 60 million of our fellow citizens actually LIKED it. Unless we understand what to do about it, we risk more losses, or almost as bad, victories followed by the repubs gumming up the government works and getting rewarded for it.

[ProfessorGAC]

44. Bullshit!

In a full on angry GE, as long as the dems don't play "nice", he can be slaughtered!
I'm sick of playing nice!!!!!!!

[marylandblue]

52. Experience with authoritarian populists in other countries

Shows it is not enough to oppose the authoritarian, you must have your own positive agenda.

[struggle4progress]

55. "Despair now and avoid the rush! Resistance is futile!"