So lets say Economist poll is right and we win the house popular by 7 points in 18

[NewsCenter28]

That’s enough, for us to obtain the house majority right if the final results look like that in ‘18? We gained it in 2006 with a 5 point margin I believe.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. The House is gerrymandered but a seven point lead should do the trick.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

2. Not necessarily.

We could win huge in strongly Democratic districts, and just barely lose in Republican ones, have at least that much of an overall lead, but it would mean squat. It's district by district.

It's why Hillary isn't President. Not the right votes in the right places.

We have to be very smart and savvy about next year's election.

Wish we had Howard Dean as Party Chair.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. If we win the generic ballot by seven points it is more likely than not we win the House.

That, of course, is different than saying it's a lead pipe cinch.


You also have to factor in Hillary won the pop vote in 24 Congressional districts that voted for a Republican to represent them. If you add up the districts that Trump won by ten points or less it's damn near one hundred.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

7. The generic ballot isn't that useful.

If we had a parliamentary system it would be, but we have all of these separate districts.

And again, if we win by huge margins in Democratic districts and just barely lose in the many gerrymandered Republican ones, we won't regain the House. The House needs to be fought for district by district. And while we don't want to blow off even the safest Democratic District, we don't want to be focussing to tightly on the safe ones. Likewise, we can't blow off the safe Republican Districts. It's when no one runs against an incumbent that we lose twice. By just letting them have that seat the party looks ineffectual, and local voters don't understand that there are actual Democrats out there they might be voting for if they only had the chance.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Which scenario is more likely

Scenario One- We win the generic ballot by seven points and fail to regain the House.

Scenario Two- We win the generic ballot by seven points and fail to regain the House.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

9. You said it!

We win the generic ballot by seven points and fail to regain the House.

[pangaia]

6. Wish we had Howard Dean as Party Chair. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I wish we had had him as president back then....

[caraher]

3. Don't look at me

I thought we'd take the Senate last fall.

The House is an even tougher nut thanks to the gerrymander

[moose65]

5. Me too.

It hurts me that Feingold isn't back in the Senate. I was hoping that he and Bayh and the lady in PA. would win, so we'd have a 51-49 majority. What could have been....