You Don't Lose Power By Losing Your Base

[DonViejo]

October 25, 2017 at 7:59 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard

David Frum: “A famous line of Ernest Hemingway’s describes how a rich man goes broke: ‘Two ways … Gradually and then suddenly.’ That’s how defeat comes upon a president as well. The live question for Trumpists in 2018 will be whether they can hold onto both chambers of Congress and thereby continue to stifle investigations into presidential wrongdoing. The geographic map is in the GOP’s favor in 2018, but the demographic map increasingly is not. The voters who hear of and are swayed by comments like Flake’s and Corkers’s—more educated, more affluent—are precisely those most likely to show up in an off-year election. Trump and the GOP will not lose all of them. They cannot afford to lose very many of them.”

“You don’t lose power by losing your base. Herbert Hoover held 39.7 percent of the vote in 1932, a year when Americans were literally going hungry. You lose power by losing the less intensely committed, just enough of them to tip the balance against you. Flake, Corker, and the others are working on those less intensely committed, at the 52 percent of Republicans who as late as August 2016 still wished their party had nominated someone else.”

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https://politicalwire.com/2017/10/25/dont-lose-power-losing-base/

[DrDan]

1. I think it hinges on the market . . . if it stays at record highs, he will be very difficult to

remove from office . . . IMO

[Iliyah]

2. The markets does not trickle down anymore (if it ever had)

consumers are starting to feel the pinch.

[DrDan]

3. so it has no impact on folk's 401k's - is that what you are saying?

[treestar]

5. His base may not have those

The stats would be interesting, but it seems like they would be a group lacking in those generally. Poor white people in the rural states just seem not likely to have them.

OTOH, I don't think his base cares about the economy really - the ones I run across just like that he makes liberals unhappy. As long as he does that, they will support him. Even if it hurts their interests.

[DrDan]

6. well - I still think his re-election will swing on the market - it will have an impact on how

indies vote

[n2doc]

4. If they succeed in hitting their "more educated, more affluent' base with a big tax increase

Then they will lose next year. I think there is a good chance of this happening, as they want to give the ultra rich a tax cut s badly that they are willing to screw over the traditional republicans voters.
And in case anyone thinks cutting state and local tax deductions only hits the blue states, Georgia has very high taxes. Texas has high property taxes because they don't have an income tax. Lots of red states do too.

[Iliyah]

7. Also, those 401Ks, just imagine trying to collect from that

for medial expenses. GOPers are effing the healthcare and CHIP for 8 million children. Same shit, same GOPs.

[Orrex]

8. They control the entire voting apparatus

The GOP is in no serious danger of losing its House and Senate majorities, nor is it likely to lose many (any?) state legislative seats or governorships.