Indictments will help Republicans pass their tax cuts.

[Tom Rinaldo]

For two simple reasons. One; indictments will dominate media coverage for at least a week - a very critical time period given the Congressional timeline. There will not be nearly as much air time and print space devoted to explaining how the Republican tax plans screw average Americans, how a few crumbs given to average Americans and mountains given to the rich will decimate all kinds of essential federal programs - not to mention explode the deficit. Rats scurry in the dark.

Two; Russiagate is a media battleground that Republicans are well prepared to fight on. The Trump presidency has been damaged by the cumulative revelations to date, but that all is pretty much now "priced in". It will take very serious criminal allegations to break substantive new ground at this point, and it is unlikely that the current sealed indictments contain those. Meanwhile the small but critical percentage of still "reachable" Trump voters will now be in siege mode, circling their wagons around their Chief against an "unfair with hunt" aimed at taking him down. They won't be paying any attention to how the 1% is about to fleece them.

I put much of my remaining hope in Mueller's probe, but I, we, have no means to meaningfully advance it. It is in the hands of the professionals now. We remain in the realm of politics, and that is where we can still have some influence on what this government is doing to America.

[global1]

1. The Bulk Of The American People That Know They Will Be Screwed By This Tax Reform....

need to mobilize just like they did for healthcare and hit the phones, send e-mails & protest at the Repugs offices - local & in DC. We can't let them slip this by us. The Repugs must learn how the American People feel about this and how we will use this against them in 2018 & 2020 at the ballot box.

Again we must be every bit as vocal as we were for healtcare.

[Tom Rinaldo]

2. That's it exactly. Now is that time. "Tax Reform" is that issue.

We used every day in the weeks leading up to Obamacare repeal votes in Congress to organize. Th public knows Trump is a liar. They know is arrogant and vain to the nth degree. Some may be loath to admit it, but they know he cheats at both golf and business. They mostly even know that Trump doesn't know what he is talking about when it comes to policy matters that won't fit into a tweet. But some still cling to a belief that Trump is fighting for them, and unless you are an avowed white nationalist, he clearly isn't. Trumpcare and so called "Tax Reform" are two issues that clearly establish whose side Trump is on - once people know the facts. The relative handful of Republicans in Congress who can lose to a Democrat in a general election must be made to fear for their political lives over this issue.

[Jim Lane]

3. I disagree, because I think the tax fight will last quite a while.

You're right that any indictments will dominate media coverage for at least a week. The reason I'm less pessimistic than you is that I see the tax debate going into December.

The Republicans don't even have a specific plan yet. They've appointed a small group (even smaller than the health care cabal) to craft something. Then it gets worked over in the House, where the competing factions within the GOP will make Ryan's life a nightmare. Whatever emerges from the House has to go to the Senate, where McConnell's margin is even less. There might have to be a conference committee.

BTW, I wouldn't call the Republicans' bill "their tax cuts". It's anticipated that they'll need to make it revenue-neutral, which is what they need to escape a filibuster. They will cut some taxes but be forced to increase others. Hence the rumblings about curbing or eliminating some deductions, such as those for state and local taxes. Depending on exactly what emerges from the sausage-making, it's likely that millions of people will find their taxes increased.

[Tom Rinaldo]

4. This is where Congressional stuff becomes arcane for me

I am aware that in order to use reconciliation in the Senate, and thus avoid needing a filibuster proof majority to pass legislation there, that a bill must be related to finances and either revenue neutral or deficit shrinking. However the reporting that I've seen seems to indicate that the critical importance of passing a budget first was to enable a "tax reform" bill to go through the Senate that will increase the deficit. I don't understand the legalities of adopting a formal budget first opening a door wide for budget busting "Tax Reform", and I can easily be wrong about that. It was my impression that the Republicans needed, for political window dressing and as a bone to deficit hawks, to show some ability to close some significant tax loopholes while also cutting taxes, and so they have been looking to close "loopholes" that largely benefit folks in solid blue states, plus those that won't hit the one percent hardest by repealing them. I don't think they are claiming their Tax Reform" to be revenue neutral on the face of it. I think they are claiming that subsequent spurred economic growth will wipe out the huge deficits they are causing.

The Republicans once again opted for the "plan drawn up in secret by a small group of men" approach for their tax cuts. On the early rounds of attempted Obamacare repeal they were able to manage some snap votes using that approach. House Republicans got hung up to dry by one of those - and then Trump called that legislation "mean" afterwards. I fear that they are so desperate to get a "win" on something that they could stampeded Congressional Republicans into not impeding that now with bothersome objections.