Five Things To Watch As Robert Mueller Makes His First Big Move

[DonViejo]

The special counsel may be charging someone close to Trump in order to “flip” that person.

BARBARA MCQUADE
10.28.17 7:06 PM ET

Five observations about the first indictment reportedly returned by the grand jury empaneled by Special Counsel Robert Mueller to investigate links between the Trump campaign and Russian interference with the 2016 election:

First, an indictment means that a grand jury has found that probable cause exists to believe that a crime has been committed by a particular defendant or defendants. Probable cause means a reasonable basis or fair probability that a crime has been committed, a lower standard of proof than the guilt beyond a reasonable doubt required for conviction at trial. But Department of Justice policy provides that a prosecutor should file charges only if there is a reasonable likelihood of conviction at trial, where the standard of proof is guilt beyond a reasonable doubt. Because Mueller is required to comply with DOJ policy, an indictment means that he and his team believe that they have evidence sufficient to meet this higher standard.

Second, this is likely only the first of several indictments.

One extreme scenario is that the sealed indictment charges President Trump himself. It is possible that Mueller has had sufficient time to complete his investigation of obstruction of justice against the President. The obstruction case would involve a somewhat isolated series of events that are less complex than the larger interference investigation. Reports indicate that Mueller has been investigating Trump’s request to former FBI Director James Comey to end the investigation into former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn and related acts that could amount to obstruction of justice. While the law is unclear, under DOJ policy, a sitting president cannot be held to answer to criminal charges in court and may only be impeached. One way to handle that scenario is to indict him now, seal the indictment, and unseal it on the day he leaves office by impeachment or otherwise. In light of the complexities and importance of the case, however, it seems unlikely that Mueller has reached this point yet.

The more likely scenario is that they have charged one or more lower-level individuals, such as Flynn, former campaign chairman Paul Manafort, or maybe even someone whose name has not been reported publicly. One potential charge is violation of the Foreign Agent Registration Act, which requires individuals who work as agents of foreign governments to provide notice of that fact to the Attorney General of the United States. Both Flynn and Manafort ultimately filed such registrations, but only after substantial delay and public exposure of the work they had already done on behalf of foreign governments. Regardless of what crime has been charged, as the investigation goes on, it could be that additional charges against this defendant or other defendants will be added in superseding indictments or separate indictments.

Third, the defendant or defendants charged in this indictment are likely to be those that the Mueller team will try to “flip.” Flipping witnesses, a common tactic that prosecutors use, means persuading lower-level defendants to cooperate as witnesses against more culpable defendants in exchange a recommendation of leniency. If Mueller is employing this strategy, this indictment may include charges against someone close to the Trump campaign who has information that could be of value to Mueller and his team. Manafort, for example, was reportedly a key participant in the June 2016 meeting between Russians, Donald Trump, Jr., and Jared Kushner to obtain disparaging information about Hillary Clinton. If Manafort were to cooperate, he could potentially provide important details about what Trump Jr. and Kushner said and did regarding that meeting. There have been reports that Manafort has already been told that he would be indicted. Some have portrayed that notice as a scare tactic. To the contrary, it is not uncommon to warn a target that he will be indicted to give him an opportunity to cooperate before the indictment is filed. A defendant who refuses to cooperate at that stage of an investigation may have a different perspective once he has been charged with a crime.

more
https://www.thedailybeast.com/five-things-to-watch-as-robert-mueller-makes-his-first-big-move

[D23MIURG23]

1. Its hard to imagine Donald Trump would be the first person to be indicted in the probe.

But there is some kind of strategic case for it. If Mueller felt he could use an indictment as a means to force congress to remove Trump from power, that might be a possibility. If that worked it could keep Trump from interfering with the remainder of the investigation.

It seems like a risky first move though, because Trump really would do anything he still can do to end that investigation.

If I were a betting man, my money would be on the scenario where the Grand Jury indicts Manafort for something relatively simple and easy to prove. That way he finds out if he can get leverage over Manafort, and he gets to observe Trump's reaction.

[Nevernose]

3. Some have speculated that he cant issue pardons

If indicted. Apparently that’s the jurisprudence for the executive in some states and countries. That would have to be fought — and won — all the way to the Supreme Court, and even then probably would have a snowball’s chance in Hell.

[D23MIURG23]

5. If he issued an indictment of Trump, it might become a moot point.

Enough Republicans in congress might decide that having a President with charges pending is too much of a liability. Hard to know though. They are so spineless about confronting their base that it is hard to imagine them putting the country first even when the choice is obvious.

If Trump is indicted, I'm sure he'll try to pardon himself and that will be in the courts for years and it will be a giant travesty. It's hard for me to imagine a legal solution to this that doesn't involve congress eventually stepping up and acting like the adults in the room, though. IANAL, so maybe I'm just not aware of some of the possible scenarios that could take place.

[Hekate]

2. Very interesting read. Thanks. nt

[politicaljunkie41910]

4. Mueller has to have considered the thought that he may only get one bite at the apple and therefore

should have gone for the Dotard in the first round of indictments. If Mueller indicts anyone related to Trump or high up in his current or past administration in this first round, he will be fired and the GOP will not replace him. Trump will have gotten away with it because there's no one to stand in his way. All the articles I've read lately on this board have implied that Trump can fire Mueller and he will get away with it because the GOP is spineless and cares more about Tax Cuts and Supreme Court Justice picks than they do about doing the right thing, and putting country first.

We've watched how he's politicized the DoJ and has done his best to rid the DoJ of independent US Attorneys who are unwilling to take a loyalty oath to him, while trying to replace them with Friends of Rudy and Friends of Christie who will be pro Trump and our Justice Dept as we have known it will be forever tainted as corrupt and we will officially be a Banana Republic.