Why there is nothing campaign related in the indictment

[marylandblue]

They want Manafort to know they have him no matter what. Right now it's him and him alone. No reason for Trump to help him. Trump will distance himself from Manafort. He will twist in the wind, unless he talks. Which he will, in exchange for a light sentence and keeping some of his money.

[Madam45for2923]

1. Let's also remember that Manafort was in that June with Russians meeting w/his handy phone.

He knows many things!

[L. Coyote]

8. RUSSIA: The most important part of Paul Manaforts indictment thats gone unnoticed ....

Hackers? Lest we forget, the hackers were working from behind Putin's firewall.

Link to tweet

[Madam45for2923]

11. I bet Mueller is just holding 'em cards.

[Lotusflower70]

2. Smart strategy

Even though it's obviously related, Mueller is meticulous and doesn't want to give away more information that necessary. Plus he doesn't want anything to derail his work. Reveal as little as possible for as long as possible.

[L. Coyote]

6. This indicates Manafort was under surveillance before going to work for Trump. Bad news for Donnie.

Everyone who ever spoke to Manafort or contacted him now knows they were watched, etc.

Link to tweet

[Lotusflower70]

7. Yep

They are collectively losing their shit. There is no doubt surveillance started long ago.

[Wounded Bear]

14. Well, the FBI has been on this since summer '16, at least...

Remember, the first US Attorney filed was from NY South, overseeing Manhattan and Trump's business empire. That's borderline obstruction on its face. There are shitloads of money-laundering to look into.

[PearliePoo2]

3. That's a great point because...

Why would BLOTUS pardon him for ANY of those charges against him and what possible reasoning could he offer for it? It wouldn't make sense.
PLUS, even if he did pardon him, NYAG is going to nail his ass. You can bet that Mueller and Schneiderman have this all game-planned out!

[Break time]

4. Have you paid attention

"Why would BLOTUS pardon him for ANY of those charges against him and what possible reasoning could he offer for it? It wouldn't make sense."

You actually think that it needs to "make sense" ???

[L. Coyote]

5. Because these charges had to be brought now due to statute of limitations.

Manafort will get more charges in due time.

[uncle ray]

9. there will be no light sentence for cooperation.

Mueller has rightly recognized who is responsible for Russian interference in our politics and is going after those parties first. the desire many of us have to go after trump is largely partisan, which is a desire that i don't think Mueller shares. i expect him to send a clear message to anyone who considers committing the crimes that manafort and friends have committed. this is a clear path to conviction without getting bogged down in bullshit that we can't quantify or change such as "just how much influence DID russian money and social media trolls have on the election?

i agree with the logic of the rest of your post, but disagree that Mueller is looking to get anyone to turn on trump. trumps crimes, like those of manafort, will stand on their own merits.

[marylandblue]

10. Mueller needs witnesses who can say Trump knew

It's not a partisan thing. It's a Watergate thing.

[uncle ray]

13. yes, but those witnesses will not include Paul Manafort.

the papadopoulos plea is evidence that they have smaller fish they can use for that.

[marylandblue]

16. Still they will want Manafort to talk

That's what one of Muller's attorneys did in Enron. They got the CFO to testify against the CEO in exchange for a shorter sentence. Same attorney did the same thing in a mob case. He got underbosses to turn against the big boss. I think 50 people were indicted in that one.

[uncle ray]

18. i doubt he has info big enough that he can share to get his ass out of this sling.

yes, Mueller has precedents on how he has won in the past, but as we all know, this situation has no precedent.

what info and on who could dramatically reduce his potential sentence? i expect his buddies: Cohn, Stone, Etc. all were just as bad at covering up their crimes as Manafort was, so sufficient evidence already exists, that along with testimony of lesser targets will easily convict them. trump was surely not the mastermind, so info on him, though possibly damning for trump, is still smaller than Manafort's crimes, whether he has been indicted of them yet or not. he could turn on actual russians, but if he did that i suspect he'd prefer to be in Federal custody than risk the consequences. if he was entertaining the notion of helping the investigation, why did he not act on it before indictments dropped that threaten to take everything he has? i suspect he has tried, and Mueller basically laughed at him.

that's not to say that there are not going to be deals cut. it seems that lots of people have benefited from Manaforts russian money and enormous pressure will be put on them to help build the cases against the other co-conspirators.

[marylandblue]

19. You can't cut a deal until they charge you with a crime

If you aren't charged with a crime, you are still technically just a witness, and therefore you need no deal. Once you are indicted, you have something to lose and something to gain, so you can make a deal. See Papadopoulous case.

[better]

12. The indictments against Manafort and Gates are only one part of the day's news

The bigger deal, in my estimation, is what we learned today about George Papadopoulos having pled guilty to making false statements, which were specifically about not just contact with Russians, but with contact with Russians explicitly to help the Trump campaign. The way this reads to me is that they've already flipped Papadopoulos, having rolled him on charges of making false statements on matters establishing collusion.

What I expect is that we will eventually see his testimony and admissions used at some point in the future to pressure Manafort.
We haven't seen the end of this, not by a long shot.

[marylandblue]

17. I agree this is bigger

[Bernardo de La Paz]

15. Papadopoulos plead GUILTY to collusion with Russians re eMails offered to Don Jr.

Of course "collusion" is not the strict legal term but is short hand for "conspiring with a hostile power to interfere in a US election".