VA-GOV: Today's early voting update.

[RandySF]

Link to tweet

[bearsfootball516]

1. Not sure how to read this

High amounts of early voting, especially in the north, favor Northam. But the fact that the vast majority of early voting comes from people 41 and older, with the largest segment being 70+, seems to favor Gillespie.

[RandySF]

2. I'm not an expert on Virginia

But it's usually the north that makes the difference for Dems.

[bearsfootball516]

3. You're correct

I just get nervous because of the large majority of early voting being 40 and up

[RandySF]

5. I think 65+ puts them on the permanent AV ballot list.

[Not Ruth]

10. What is AV

[MissB]

15. Absentee voter?

[spooky3]

12. Where are you (and others) getting this notion about people over 65 being

treated differently?

Age is not listed among the reasons for qualifying for absentee voting. Am I missing something?

See this link:

https://www.vote.org/absentee-ballot/virginia/

and this post:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=9779670

[HipChick]

4. NOVA always comes through..

[RandySF]

11. You're from Fairfax, right?

Do you have an idea how old the AV voters are in the north? If they are older, does that necessarily bode well for Gillespie?

[RandySF]

7. For example, Mark Warner almost lost re-election in that awful 2014 election

But NOVA made the difference. Same for Hilary (2016) and Terry (2013).

[Takket]

6. youth not voting is a BAD omen

[RandySF]

8. Virginia AV is similar to Michigan.

[RandySF]

9. I'm not trying to blow sunshine up anybody's ass

But the age breakdown is not freaking me out given the regional breakdown (someone from Virginia correct me if necessary). I wish we could see the ages of those voting in NOVA.

[bearsfootball516]

13. Im willing to bet most of the youth vote is coming from NOVA

But the sheer amount of 40+ vote that’s been cast coupled how much of the early vote has been NOVA means that a lot of that 40+ vote is also coming from NOVA.

[pstokely]

16. what about the college towns?

or do students vote absentee in their home areas?

[4139]

14. Dont agree with the higher turnout analysis... 2009 early voting 88,182

Early voting is becoming more popular:

2009 88.182
2013 121,359
That was a big jump, 38%... but turnout was only up a bit
2009 40.4
2013 43.0

https://www.elections.virginia.gov/resultsreports/registration-statistics/registrationturnout-statistics/index.html

I don’t think the early voting stat is a good indicator for Virginia for final turnout