VA-GOV: Democrat Northam with an Edge over Republican Gillespie, 47 Percent to 43 Percent

[RandySF]

A Suffolk University poll of likely Virginia voters shows Democrat Ralph Northam leading Republican Ed Gillespie by four points in the gubernatorial contest, 47 percent to 43 percent. These figures include those supporting or leaning toward each candidate, and the results are within the poll’s statistical margin of error.

In a September poll, Northam and Gillespie were tied at 42 percent.

Libertarian Clifford Hyra is at 2 percent, and 6 percent are undecided with the general election for Virginia governor five days away.

“Though the share of undecided voters is now at only 6 percent, the pressure is on the candidates to woo the most malleable categories of undecided voters,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “One of these categories is independent voters, where the undecided count is 17 percent, nearly triple the statewide number.”


http://www.suffolk.edu/news/74532.php#.WfuGz7aZMh9

[yortsed snacilbuper]

1. gerrymandered much?

[DavidDvorkin]

2. Gerrymandering doesn't apply to a statewide election.

[yortsed snacilbuper]

3. Gerrymandering

While the state-wide nature of gerrymandering would make one think that it has no effect, it certainly could.

Elections are run at the state level, so a state-gerrymandered election could alter that balance of power in the state legislature, which would effect things like voter-suppression measures, enactment and enforcement of campaign finance regulations, and the ability of elections to be monitored and for rules to be enforced by non-partisan (or partisan) entities.

In Wisconsin, this was, in part, the basis of their gerrymandering case/challenge that will now be heard by the Supreme Court. In 2012, Democratic candidates got the majority of State Assembly votes, but the GOP won a huge majority in that lawmaking body. The GOP enacted voter ID and other restrictive measures, that have been struck down, then reinstated, by different levels of the courts.

It would be difficult to claim this did not have an impact on state-wide results. Those in power (regardless of party) tend to favor policies and practices that perpetuate their power.

[Pugster]

4. They were tied in the previous poll

Northam has the momentum.