***HOT OFF THE PRESS QUINNIPIAC POLL*** -Northam (Democrat) 51% Gillepsie (Trumplican )42%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

With yawning gender and racial gaps, Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam holds a 51 - 42 percent likely voter lead over Republican Ed Gillespie in the Virginia governor's race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Libertarian Cliff Hyra has 3 percent.

Today's result compares to a 53 - 36 percent likely voter lead for Northam in an October 30 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Non-white likely voters back the Democrat 71 - 20 percent, with 4 percent for Hyra. White voters back the Republican 50 - 44 percent, with 3 percent for Hyra. Women back Northam 61- 33 percent, with 1 percent for Hyra. Men back Gillespie 52 - 40 percent, with 5 percent for Hyra. Independent voters are divided with 46 percent for Northam, 42 percent for Gillespie and 6 percent for Hyra. Democrats back Northam 96 - 3 percent, with less than 1 percent for Hyra. Republicans back Gillespie 92 - 5 percent, with less than 2 percent for Hyra.

"Republican Ed Gillespie is closing Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam's lead, but Gillespie still has a ways to go and only 24 hours to get there," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "A good sign for Gillespie is that in the last two weeks he has cut Lt Gov. Northam's 14-point lead among independents, the key bloc of voters, to a statistical tie. But any hopes that the Republicans have for victory will require their candidate to accomplish the Herculean task of making up a deep, 28-point deficit among women.

From October 30 - November 5, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,056 Virginia likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points, including the design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys nationwide, and statewide polls in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa and Colorado as a public service and for research.

https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2497

GOTV

Quiinipiac is a A- rated at 538 with a 0.7 GOP lean

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

[justiceischeap]

1. Quinnipac is an outlier poll

The race is much, much closer than that according to Real Clear politics, WaPo, local polls.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. A- rated at 538 with a 0.7 GOP lean.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

[justiceischeap]

3. Im just stating what Im seeing locally

Locally, we’re all worried about Gillespie’s surge. It’s going to be a close election.

[FSogol]

7. Agreed, it will all come down to turnout. n/t

[Honeycombe8]

20. Last minute momentum is critical & hard to catch in polls. Fingers crossed. nt

[LisaL]

21. As it turns out, it was right on the money.

[justiceischeap]

24. Pretty damn close! nt

[LisaL]

25. 9 point victory, which is exactly what happened.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. Quinnipiac nailed VA and NJ

[OnDoutside]

4. Has there been any evidence of Russian bots using Facebook etc, here ?

[SCRUBDASHRUB]

5. Nervous here in VA.

Yesterday we had a canvasser come out. Second time in a couple of weeks. They're definitely trying to get out the vote. A little concerned that tomorrow it's supposed to rain and that might discourage some people from voting.

[RhodeIslandOne]

9. That's good

Nothing should ever be taken for granted.

[Duppers]

16. Still nervous here in Tidewater too.

Fingers crossed.

[progressoid]

6. So he lost 8 points in a week?

[IronLionZion]

8. After Brexit and Trump, we should not get complacent.

It's not over til it's over. Turnout is always a challenge for our side in these types of elections that are not on presidential years.

[videohead5]

10. One Recent Poll

Had Northam with only 37% Gillespie with 40%.I knew it had to be wrong.but I'm sure it's closer than 9 points.

[Stargazer99]

11. Is there any way to make sure the cons don't have their cheating hands in this?

After voter surpression and the "safety" of our vote count I would have deep doubts

[BannonsLiver]

12. Well be able to tell from Steve Kornakes body language how its going for Dems

If he’s animated and excited it’s going badly. If he’s more subdued it’s going well.

[DeminPennswoods]

13. MSNBC cited a Monmoth poll w/Northam up 2 pts

Personally, I think the voters will break late against Gillespie.

I think of it as the "Dover (PA) effect". You may recall school board candidates ran a stealth campaign hiding the fact they were creationists. Once they were elected and started to turn the local public school curriculum into kooky fundamentalist education, the residents woke up and sued. After the trial, the subsequent election resulted in all the creationist/religious nuts being voted out, never to return. The message sent was "we voters know what you are and our votes showed you that's not who we are".

[spanone]

14. m$nbc just put Northam ahead by 2 points

[58Sunliner]

15. I sure as hell hope so. I am biting my nails.

The thought of another repub who gives a nod and wink to racists turns my stomach.

[oasis]

17. K and R

[BlueMTexpat]

18. Oh please, let it

be Northam! I don't care what the margin is, just so long as it is a winning one!

[Sancho]

19. Hillary won the polls...the GOP cheats...

as long as the elections are not verified and fair, we cannot win.

It won't surprise me if the GOP wins a close election just like a dozen other similar ones we've seen lately. If the polls show Northam with a 10% lead, he may win by 2%.

[uponit7771]

22. +1, and VA went paper not long ago ... fuck the KGOP

[Sancho]

23. Everyone needs to go to countable paper ballots...

it makes a difference.

[book_worm]

27. Looks like this poll was right on the money margin wise.