Should we prepare for a loss in VA ?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

No, we shouldn't. Could Northam lose? Of course he can but it is more likely than not Northam wins. How likely ? If I was laying odds I would say somewhere between 2-1 and 3-1 based on aggregate polling:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/governor/va/virginia_governor_gillespie_vs_northam-6197.html

Plus the fundamentals favor Northam:

He's led the entire way
Trump is massively unpopular and some of his stink has to rub off, even if it's a little.
He's replacing a popular Democratic incumbent
VA is a heterogeneous state
Our GOTV is solid
Deplorables suck ass. Who wants to be one?



P.S. Lead pipe cinchs are rare in politics. Always be vigilant. Always Be sober. It's tempting but our feelings aren't facts.

[Pope George Ringo II]

1. I'm preparing for a loss in VA.

Gillespie's.

[Ken Burch]

2. Well put.

n/t.

[Awsi Dooger]

3. You are very close to actual betting odds

Ladbrokes is currently quoting Northam at 2/5 (-250) and Gillespie at 7/4 (+175).

So if we split the difference and use man to man odds without juice, Northam theoretically would be in the -212 range or slightly more than a 2/1 favorite. In British terminology it would be roughly 10/21 favoritism.

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/international/us-elections/virginia-gubernatorial-election-2017/225949035/

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. Slightly better odds than GSW to repeat.

I believe Northam is the safer bet. Less variables.


My buddy and I were in Vegas in April. He put a small amount on LAD at Westgate. He came tantalizingly close.

[Awsi Dooger]

6. And without the 7 month wait

Opportunity cost

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. How do you see the race ?

I see the fundamentals and polling favoring Northam. If not for Brexit, Trump, Buster Douglas, The Miracle On Ice I would call it for Northam right now.

[Awsi Dooger]

11. Small Northam win

Due to independents.

Maybe 2-3 points

But I didn't wager on it.

I should point out that if a Republican led by the same poll margin that Northam has enjoyed, the favoritism would be closer to 1/5 or -500. That's double. It's due to the very real situation that polling recently has underestimated the conservative side, due to Shy Tory or whatever you want to call it.

[TexasTowelie]

5. You forgot Ed Gillespie sucks.

An easy oversight though.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. He's deplorable. I was at the gym and saw him on FOX.

I wonder if MS13 is a thing in VA. He was going on about it.

[Motley13]

9. After Hillary lost, nothing would surprise me

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. That was a shock, for sure, but it should lead to sober assessment, not undue pessimism.

[Wwcd]

12. She won but that win was stolen. They did it in 2016 & they'll do it again

The voting precints must be watched. No deleting data, & anyone suddenly bumped off the voter rolls must immediately call attention to it.

I hope the Voter rights groups are heavily present tomorrow.
Should have been paper ballots.

Good luck to Northam & the ever fighting & faithful Dem Party.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

19. They'll try. The Russians are ever active.

Plus voting should be auditable. Paper ballots are auditable.

[ileus]

13. A state we have locked up...not hardly. A 10pt win easy for us.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. From your mouth to God's ears.

[jalan48]

15. The Magic Eight Ball says we win!

[Honeycombe8]

16. Could go either way. An important election. nt

[Bernardo de La Paz]

17. Employ detachment and professional pessimism:

Professional Pessimism: Expect and prepare for the worst while maintaining enthusiasm for the best. That way defeat won't crush you and you have the energy to make victories happen.

Detachment: Do not attach emotion to defeat or the fear of defeat or the prospect of defeat or the possibility of defeat. Shit happens but sometimes unicorns shit rainbows.

Dispassionately do what needs to be done but you can allow yourself some time to enjoy a victory if efforts succeed.

[Vadem]

18. I just saw on Tweety (I think) that black people will not vote for Northam because he took Justin

Fairfax, running for lt. governor, off his latest campaign flyers!

OMG does anyone know if this is true or not??

I think every Virginian had better vote for the Democratic ticket if they want to continue having Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security and the CHIPS insurance program for the children of Virginia!

[phylny]

20. I got a campaign flyer with Northam, Fairfax, and Herring all included n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. It was part of a GOP smear campaign.

[McCamy Taylor]

21. Depends upon how hackable the ballot is.