BREAKING: 538 reporting Doug Jones takes lead in AL-SEN

[brooklynite]

Link to tweet

[Nevernose]

1. Maybe Senator Jones will confirm

President Clinton’s judicial nominees?

At this point, I sadly have more faith in Michael Moore’s analysis than Nate Silver’s. His record is better. I also have incredibly little faith in the ability of Trump voters to do not just the right thing, but the sane thing. Or even the self-serving thing.

[Tiggeroshii]

2. Polls are just polls, and Nate silver has nothing to do with their accuracy

[OhZone]

4. I seem to remember Nate having a very good track record.

And I seem to remember him having Trump trending up just before the election. And he got complaints about that.

I still think there was a certain amount of - something - at least, voter suppression, that got Trump over the top in those swing states.

I think a lot of voters, who didn't understand how important it is to get to the polls, are really pissed now.

I don't know what will happen but it's great that it's even close in Alabama!

[StevieM]

6. I agree that Trump's poll number moved upward toward the end. But I disagree that he

"got over the top." That implies that it was a close race to begin with.

The Comey intervention completely turned the race upside down. Before it happened Trump was heading towards a decisive defeat.

[gopiscrap]

10. besides the cheating and the outright stealing of votes

[jl_theprofessor]

9. Nate took a lot of heat

for giving Trump a much better chance of winning than just about anyone else.

[Maraya1969]

13. I remember people getting posed at him for lowering Hillary's numbers

And after that he raised then. He had them real close on election day.

[Tarheel_Dem]

3. While this is exciting news, I have no delusions that Pukes won't pull out all the stops to ensure..

their guy is sent to Washington. There are things that polling can't account for...such as voter suppression, absentee and provisional ballots being "lost" or thrown out; and voter intimidation. This is AL we're talking about. There will have to be a massive turnout among Moore's opponents because you can be sure the evangelical preachers will be driving the point home every Sunday until election day.

[RandySF]

5. Im skeptical

But we still need to make fight for it.

[herding cats]

7. I'm wondering if this is going to be this gentlemans poll.

https://mobile.twitter.com/WinWithJMC

Link to tweet

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[scipan]

16. Jones 48, Moore 44: JMC Analytics

from RCP. Wow, there's a chance we could win.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/senate/al/alabama_senate_special_election_moore_vs_jones-6271.html

[herding cats]

17. That's interesting.

The independent pollster I mentioned above also has Jones up 46-42. Which is a 6 point increase over his previous polling.

http://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Alabama-Senate-Executive-Summary-General-Election-Poll-2.pdf

In the end it depends on voter turnout.

[Tatiana]

8. Thank you. There is a race here, folks! We have a REAL shot.

And yes, it is Alabama, but even Alabamans have their pride.

The Republican vote will be depressed. This scandal, instead of energizing the deplorables, is going to DEPRESS them to stay home.

We can win with a coalition of Democrats, Independents, and a very small percentage of Republican women who will pull the lever for the most qualified and deserving candidate.

I still feel that when all is said and done, the final outcome will be between 1-2 points difference. We have to mobilize! Donate if you can!

[calimary]

11. K&R! For this post!

We have to mobilize! In ALL ways possible! It sure worked out well last Tuesday!

[Hamlette]

12. If true, I hope they don't pull the election to replace Moore n/t

[Ken Burch]

14. The governor has ruled out changing the date.

And if she went back on that and changed it anyway, I'm thinking it could hurt the chances of whoever they replaced Judge Roy with. The voters might vote for our candidate just to let the 'thugs know they didn't appreciate being jerked around like that.

[Loyd]

15. Good

Cautiously optimistic here.